SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games starting with ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE all with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE
12.30pm We have another blockbuster Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with a bumper seven fixtures to enjoy! The fixtures are coming thick and fast at the moment, especially for the top clubs in Europe, and we have another midweek fixture list coming up soon too – that’s when Man City host Arsenal! We kick off the day with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle, and this should be a good game between two sides playing good football. They’ve also had the luxury of having a week off too. Both sides come into the game on a winning run, with Aston Villa winning their last four including a win over Chelsea and Newcastle winning their last five including an impressive win against Manchester United. Unai Emery has done a great job with Aston Villa so far – he has them playing a nice brand of football, and you can really see the transformation after Steven Gerrard left. In hindsight, he had them playing very bland football and the results showed. Villa’s last five xG figures have been 1.98, 3.20, 0.73 (v Chelsea), 1.08 and 1.30. I would say that they are creating more than ever, and suddenly they are sitting in sixth place which is remarkable.
You wouldn’t say that this Villa side are even close to European level, but here we are and they have a chance. I suppose it’s a reflection of how poor the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea have been this season, along with Brighton and Brentford losing games recently. Despite the improvement from Villa under Emery, they aren’t close to the level of Newcastle who are playing great football this season. Newcastle’s average xG created this season is a very high 2.0, and they are only conceding an average of 1.1. Those are Top Four stats, and they fully deserve to be there. They will be a popular bet at 2.2 today given how they played this season, and they have also been superb away from home too. For example, from the same amount of games this season Newcastle only have three points less than Manchester City away from home. We have two sides you’d want to support here because they are in good form, and we’re very likely to get an entertaining game here too. I’m going to opt to stay away from the match odds market, and I like Both Teams To Score at 1.81. Newcastle have been excellent going forward this season, and with Villa having home advantage and creating more than ever, they can get on the score sheet too.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have lost their last two Premier League matches against Newcastle United; before this, they had been seven games unbeaten against the Magpies (W3 D4).
● Following a 4-0 win over Aston Villa in October, Newcastle are looking for their first Premier League double over the Villans since the 2013-14 campaign under Alan Pardew.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2019, Aston Villa have won all three of their home games against Newcastle by the same scoreline (2-0), with five of their six goals in these matches coming before half-time.
● Since Unai Emery’s first Premier League game in charge of Aston Villa in November, only Arsenal have picked up more points (42) and earned more wins (13) in the competition than the Villans (35 points, 11 wins). Villa have won their last four league games, last winning five in a row in the top-flight in April 1998 under John Gregory.
● Newcastle have won each of their last five Premier League games, three of which have been away from home. Only in October 1996 (4) and October 1994 (5) have the Magpies ever won four or more consecutive away games in the competition.
● Aston Villa have scored at least once in all 17 of their Premier League games under Unai Emery (30 goals overall). Only two managers have seen a side score in each of their first 18 matches of a spell in charge in the competition: Mike Walker with Norwich in 1992 and Carlo Ancelotti with Chelsea in 2009 (both first 18).
● Newcastle have conceded a goal from just 7.2% of their shots faced in the Premier League this season (21 goals conceded from 293 shots). It’s the Magpies’ lowest such ratio on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 2003-04), and the lowest for any side since Liverpool in 2018-19 (also 7.2%).
● Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored in nine of his last 11 league appearances (9 goals) and has scored in 12 different Premier League games this season overall. Only three players – Christian Benteke in 2012-13 (15), Juan Pablo Ángel in 2003-04 (13), and Dwight Yorke in both 1996-97 (13) and 1995-96 (14) – have ever scored in more different games in a season in the competition for Villa.
● Bertrand Traoré has scored in his last two Premier League games, with both of these appearances coming as a substitute. The only Aston Villa player to score in three consecutive substitute appearances in the competition is Julian Joachim, who did so in the 2000-01 campaign.
● Alexander Isak has scored in each of Newcastle’s last three Premier League away games (four goals); only Peter Beardsley in December 1993 has ever scored in four consecutive away appearances in the competition for the Magpies.
CHELSEA V BRIGHTON
3pm We have another busy Saturday afternoon in the Premier League with five games kicking off at 3pm. We start with one of the biggest talking points of the day as Chelsea host Brighton. Chelsea have been in the headlines recently because they took the decision to sack Graham Potter, and then re-appointed Frank Lampard. I have to say that was a very bizarre decision, and Lampard got off to a losing start last weekend with a 1-0 loss to Wolves. I really felt Chelsea were playing well enough to win there; however I did reduce my stakes after the Lampard news. They put in a very average performance to lose 1-0, and then had to play Real Madrid away from home in the Champions League. That was a disaster, they had a man sent off and we’re probably lucky to “only” lose 2-0 given Real Madrid had so much time with an extra man. Although Chelsea have a huge task in the second leg, they aren’t fully out of the tie. They could have lost 3-0 or 4-0 given the circumstances – Real Madrid had 30 minutes with an extra man. Chelsea are really in trouble this season, and Frank Lampard doesn’t seem to be the man to get them out of it. Their next few games will be very interesting, and they face another tough challenge here against a top class Brighton side.
Brighton lost 2-1 to Spurs last weekend, but it was yet another game where they finished with a higher xG figure than their opposition and didn’t win! They actually created an xG figure over three times what Spurs managed, and were unlucky to lose. A couple of week ago they had to settle for a 3-3 draw with Brentford despite finishing the game with an xG of 4.47! In between they created 2.44 against Bournemouth, and despite only winning once from three games they arrive here in excellent form. As always with Brighton, it all comes down to whether or not they take their chances because you know they will create a lot. It’s a sign of the times that we have such an open market here – indeed the sides are exactly the same price at the time of writing at 2.78. Chelsea are all over the place at the moment, and I would have Brighton favourites here. I couldn’t put anyone off the Brighton back, but it’s nice to have the draw on our side here too so I’m happy with a Chelsea lay at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brighton at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have never lost a home league game against Brighton and Hove Albion, conceding just once in seven previous meetings at Stamford Bridge (W5 D2).
● Brighton’s only league win in 15 league matches (D4 L10) against Chelsea was in this season’s reverse fixture, winning 4-1 at the Amex Stadium. The Seagulls hadn’t led for a single minute in any of their 10 Premier League games against Chelsea before that win.
● Chelsea have lost just three of their last 18 home Premier League games under Frank Lampard (W11 D4), with those defeats coming against Man Utd (0-2 in February 2020), Liverpool (0-2 in September 2020) and Man City (1-3 in January 2021 – Lampard’s last home league game in charge of the club).
● Brighton have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League games (W6 D4), however both of those defeats came against London clubs (vs Fulham in February and Tottenham last time out). The Seagulls will be hoping to avoid back-to-back league defeats, something that has happened just once this season (vs Tottenham and Brentford in October).
● Chelsea have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League games, despite attempting 52 shots with an expected goals total of 5.5; the Blues last went longer without a league goal in September 2007 (4 games). Overall, Chelsea have failed to score in 12 different Premier League matches in 2022-23, their most in a single campaign in the competition.
● Chelsa’s goalless draw with Liverpool in their last game at Stamford Bridge had an overall xG of 2.5. Indeed, Stamford Bridge has seen fewer goals than any other Premier League stadium this season (28 from 15 games) and over 11 fewer than expected (39.3 xG) based on Opta’s expected goals metric (the biggest negative difference for a Premier League venue this term).
● As well as ranking second for shots from high turnovers (46) in the Premier League this season, Brighton rank third for build up attacks (111), sequences with 10+ passes (452), start distance (43.5) and PPDA (10.6) heading into the weekend’s games.
● Chelsea have failed to score a first half goal in 10 of their last 11 home league games and in each of the last eight. They’ve never gone nine successive Premier League matches without a first half goal at Stamford Bridge.
● Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has scored four goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Brighton, with one of his five hat-tricks in the competition coming against the Seagulls in July 2020.
● Three of Evan Ferguson’s four Premier League goals for Brighton have come away from home. Among players to have scored at least three away goals this season, only Newcastle’s Alexander Isak (81) has a better mins/goal rate on the road than Brighton’s Evan Ferguson (100 – 3 goals in 300 minutes).
EVERTON V FULHAM
3pm Next we have Everton hosting Fulham, and Sean Dyche will see this fixture as a good opportunity to get back to winning ways after losing to Manchester United last weekend. It’s always hard to go to Old Trafford, but Everton were all over the place. They “only” lost 2-0, but it could have been more as they conceded an xG of 3.67! They won’t face as much trouble here from an average Fulham side who have been slipping down the table in recent weeks. Anyone who is a fan of xG has been expecting this from Fulham because they were massively over-performing at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.9 but their actual average works out at 1.4. That’s a huge difference, and the xG table actually puts them 16th just outside the relegation zone. It’s something they will have to address for next season, otherwise they will end up in a relegation battle. They have had a difficult fixture list to deal with, but they’ve put together five losses in a row now in all competitions. Everton have been fantastic at home under Dyche, so this is a very good chance for another three points.
Everton have been much better under Dyche, but they are still in massive danger. They start the weekend sitting in 17th just outside the bottom three, but they have the same amount of points as Nottingham Forest just below them. Things are very tight however, and a win here and losses for everyone else would see them jump into 15th for example. This feels like a good time to take on Fulham who were poor again last weekend. They lost 1-0 to West Ham with home advantage, the Hammers were playing poor football heading into that game. In their last away game, they conceded an xG of 3.11 against Bournemouth were is obviously very poor, and they also conceded an xG of 2.53 away to Brentford in March too. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes because at the end of the day we have two average sides here, but I can’t see past Everton. The 2.12 is worth taking looking at their home performances since Dyche took over.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Fulham at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have only lost two of their last 14 league games against Fulham (W9 D3), although they did lose their last home game against the Cottagers in February 2021.
● Fulham won on their last league visit to Everton in February 2021 – before this run, they’d failed to win any of their first 27 games at Goodison Park (D4 L23), losing the previous 22 visits.
● Everton are winless in their last nine Premier League matches against newly promoted sides (D4 L5); the Toffees last had a longer winless streak against promoted clubs in the league from August 1948 to May 1951 (12) – the last season in that run was 1950-51, which saw the club’s most recent relegation from the top-flight.
● Everton have won 10 points in their first five home Premier League games under Sean Dyche (W3 D1 L1), more than they’d picked up in their previous 10 games at Goodison Park (W2 D2 L6 – 8 points).
● Fulham have lost each of their last four Premier League games, this after having only lost four of their previous 16 beforehand (W8 D4). The Cottagers last endured a longer losing run in a single top-flight season in April 2019 (run of 9).
● Since Sean Dyche’s first game in charge of Everton, the Toffees have played the most long passes in the Premier League (615), with those making up 19% of their total passes, also the highest percentage in the league.
● 17 of Fulham’s Premier League matches this season have been won by a one-goal margin (W8 L9), the joint most of any side along with Southampton. Only Leicester (12) and Southampton (11) have lost more games by one goal than Fulham (9), whose last two games have seen them lose 2-1 and 1-0.
● Marco Silva is looking for his first Premier League win over Everton, a club where he managed 53 Premier League games. He’s only the third former Toffees manager to take charge of a Premier League game against them at Goodison Park after managing them in the competition, after Joe Royle (L1) and David Moyes (W2 L4).
● Jordan Pickford made nine saves in Everton’s defeat at Manchester United, with only David Raya (11 vs Brighton in April) making more saves in a Premier League game this season. Indeed, Pickford’s only made more saves in one Premier League appearance, making 11 saves against Arsenal in May 2017 for Sunderland.
● Willian created five chances for Fulham in their 1-0 defeat to West Ham United, his most in a Premier League game for the Cottagers. At 34 years and 242 days, he was the oldest player to create five chances in a Premier League match for Fulham since Danny Murphy in March 2012 (34 years, 352 days).
SOUTHAMPTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have another game that will have an impact on relegation battle as Southampton host Crystal Palace. Southampton are becoming a little adrift at the bottom of the table now, but they are still only two points behind Leicester in 19th and four behind Nottingham Forest and Everton above them. They have a lot of work to do to stay up, and you feel that they’ll have to put three or four wins together at some point if they’re going to stay up. Two wins probably only really gets them back into the mix. A couple of weeks ago, this would have been a fixture that they would have been looking at to gain three points but Palace have really had a performance boost since Roy Hodgson took over again. I was very surprised to see him back at the age of 75, but it seems a shrewd decision now as they beat Leicester 2-1 and then hammered Leeds 5-1 away from home last weekend. Talk about that “new manager bounce” effect! Southampton got hammered themselves last weekend, but you can forgive any side losing 4-1 to Manchester City, especially given the form Haaland has been in.
Being at home this season hasn’t been an advantage for the Saints. They are bottom of the home form table with only ten points all season – they actually have more points away from home. We have the most open market of the day here, with Crystal Palace favourites at 2.78, Southampton 2.92 and the draw is 3.3. I have to say everything points to a Crystal Palace win here, and they are a confident bet at 2.78. They aren’t a side I have been a fan of this season because they have been playing so poorly, but there’s been a huge jump in performance since the change of manager and you have to respect that. Add that to the fact Southampton have been so poor at home this season, and I feel Palace should be a lot shorter here. I’m not going to recommend a Max Bet or anything because it is only Palace at the end of the day, but the 2.78 looks cracking value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouCrl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Southampton are winless in their last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace (D1 L2) since winning 3-1 in May 2021.
● Crystal Palace are looking to complete a league double over Southampton for the first time since the 1990-91 top-flight campaign.
● Crystal Palace have never kept a clean sheet in 22 top-flight away games against Southampton (W3 D5 L14). However, they won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, and are looking to secure consecutive away victories against Saints for the first time in their league history.
● Southampton’s 4-1 defeat to Manchester City was their ninth loss at St. Mary’s in the league this season (W2 D4), only in 1993-94 and 2019-20 have the Saints lost more Premier League games on home soil in a campaign (both 10).
● Crystal Palace have recovered a league-high 20 points from losing positions this season, only ever recovering more in a Premier League campaign in 2014-15 (21). The Eagles have won both of their league games since Roy Hodgson’s return to the club despite going 1-0 behind; no manager in Premier League history has ever won his first three games of a spell with the club despite falling behind in all three.
● No side has conceded 4+ goals in more different games in the Premier League this season than Southampton (4), last doing so more times in a top-flight season in 1981-82 (6).
● Crystal Palace are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of four from February-June 2020. The Eagles have won their last two despite going 1-0 down each time; never before have they won three straight Premier League matches despite having conceded first in each game.
● Only against Tottenham (9) has James Ward-Prowse been involved in more Premier League goals against a side than Crystal Palace (6 – 3 goals, 3 assists). Meanwhile, of sides starting this weekend in the bottom half of the table, only Brennan Johnson of Nottingham Forest (42%) has been involved in more of their side’s goals than Southampton’s captain (38%).
● Jordan Ayew has already been involved in more goals for Crystal Palace under Roy Hodgson this season (3 – 2 goals, 1 assist), than he was under Patrick Vieira (2 – 1 goal, 1 assist). With 32 goals and 17 assists overall in the Premier League, he could become the 16th different African to record 50 goal involvements in the competition, and the first from Ghana.
● Michael Olise became the second Crystal Palace player to register three assists in a Premier League game last time out against Leeds, after Jason Puncheon. Indeed, since the start of last season he’s recorded 13 assists, at least eight more than any other Crystal Palace player, with the only player aged 21 or younger with more during that time being Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (17).
TOTTENHAM V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm It’s a massive afternoon in the relegation battle, without sides actually playing each other! We have another game that will have an impact on the bottom of the table here as Spurs host Bournemouth. This will also have an impact at the top of the table with Spurs trying desperately to keep tabs on the Top Four. Newcastle and Manchester United won their recent games in hand, so now Spurs find themselves starting the weekend three points behind both clubs and they’ve also played one game more too. It will take a bit of luck, and a lot of excellent football, for Spurs to get back into the Top Four from here. Obviously we’ve been through all the Conte drama now, and the next drama will be whether or not Harry Kane wants to stay with Spurs without Champions League football. Apparently, if you believe the media, Erik ten Hag is a big fan, so he could end up at Manchester United. He would fit into their system as well, and probably be a huge success. Spurs fans have had a terrible season, and losing Kane during the summer would be a disaster – they are probably looking at no Champions League football for a while if that happens.
This is a game on paper that they should win. They have home advantage against an average Bournemouth side, but Spurs have been hard to trust this season. In fairness however, most of their poor performances have come away from home – they have been a lot more solid at home. Apart from Manchester City who play Leicester with home advantage later, Spurs are the shortest price of the weekend – at 1.49 they wouldn’t be a bet I’d be rushing to have, and I wouldn’t be keen putting them in any Betdaq Multiple either this weekend! Bournemouth have managed to win three of their last six games to give themselves a decent chance at staying up, so I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.76. We saw plenty of drama when the sides met earlier in the season, and both sides have been involved in thrillers this season – I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals here!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham Hotspur have won all five of their home Premier League games against Bournemouth, beating them in all five campaigns between 2015-16 and 2019-20.
● Bournemouth have only taken five points in 11 previous Premier League meetings with Spurs (W1 D2 L8), with their one win coming in May 2019, 1-0 at the Vitality Stadium.
● Since a 3-1 defeat at Leeds in May 2021, Tottenham have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games against promoted sides (D1), including all five this season. At home, Spurs have lost just one of their last 32 such games (W29 D2), going down 3-1 against Wolves in December 2018.
● Tottenham have won each of their last five Premier League matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, earning more home points in the competition since the start of February than any other side (15). Indeed, each of Spurs’ last five league wins have come at home, their longest such spell since having a run of nine wins coming on home soil from January to September 2019.
● Bournemouth have won four of their last eight Premier League games (L4), as many as they had in their first 22 this season (D6 L12). Following their 1-0 win at Leicester last time out, the Cherries are looking to win back-to-back top-flight away games for the first time since October 2018.
● Bournemouth (304) and Tottenham (295) have had more high turnovers against them than any other side in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile, despite making fewer high turnovers than any other team (201), only Man City (9) have scored more such goals this term than Tottenham (8).
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min became the first ever Asian player to score 100 Premier League goals with his strike against Brighton last time out. No player has scored more often from outside the box than the Korean this term, with three of his seven strikes so far coming from distance.
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored in 20 different Premier League games in 2022-23, more than any other player (Erling Haaland 18), and his most ever in a season (19 in 2017-18). Only five players have ever scored in more separate matches in a single campaign in the competition, most recently Mo Salah in 2017-18 (24).
● Harry Kane’s Premier League goals have been worth 22 points to Tottenham this season, the highest of any player in the division. In Premier League history, only Gareth Bale in 2012-13 (24) and Kane himself in 2014-15 (24) have earned more points with their goals for Spurs in a single campaign.
● Philip Billing’s seven Premier League goals have been worth nine points to Bournemouth this season – only Josh King in 2016-17 (12) has ever earned the Cherries more points thanks to his goals in a single campaign.
WOLVES V BRENTFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with yet another fixture that will impact the relegation battle as Wolves host Brentford. After drawing with Nottingham Forest after the International break, Wolves recorded a huge win last weekend over Chelsea and that moved them up to 13th. Sitting in 13th sounds reasonably safe, but they are still only four points away from the bottom three. I would suggest that they are out of the danger zone, but they need to keep ticking up points because things are so tight. There’s a lot of sides between them and the bottom three, so while they don’t have much to worry about, focusing on their home games is important. They will see this fixture as one where they have a great chance to pick up points – Brentford are a very solid side, and they are having a good season too sitting in the top half, but they are a lot more comfortable at home compared to away. They’ve had a difficult run of fixtures recently, they had to play Manchester United and Newcastle, and prior to those games while they got a draw away to Brighton, they were completely outplayed – they conceded an xG of 4.47 which must be one of the highest figures in the Premier League this season.
This isn’t quite the most open betting heat of the day – that title goes to Southampton v Crystal Palace above – but we do have a very open market nevertheless. Wolves are the favourites at 2.64 with Brentford 3.05 and the draw is trading 3.35 at the time of writing. I fully accept that Brentford are a better side with home advantage, but I have to say I was surprised to see the prices here. I wouldn’t have Wolves so clear as favourites, and I would have Brentford a little shorter. While Wolves have picked up some great results lately, including wins here against Spurs and Chelsea – both those clubs have had major issues over the last while, and Brentford have been playing at a better level this season. For example, Brentford’s average xG created this season is 1.8, whereas Wolves are only at 1.1. Clearly Wolves have to grind out their results as they don’t have much attacking flare, and I feel Brentford can get a result here. I’m happy to lay Wolves at 2.64 from a value point of view as I wouldn’t have them that short.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Brentford at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves have only lost one of their last seven league matches against Brentford (W4 D2), a 2-0 home defeat last season.
● The reverse fixture between Wolves and Brentford this season ended 1-1 – the sides have never shared two draws in a league season before.
● Wolves have won four of their last six Premier League home games (L2), as many as their previous 16 beforehand (W4 D3 L9). They have kept a clean sheet in each of those wins, this after having only kept four shutouts in their previous 19 league games at Molineux prior.
● Brentford have lost their last two Premier League games, as many defeats as they’d had in their previous 19 games (W8 D9 L2). The Bees last lost more consecutive matches in January and February 2022, a run of five defeats.
● Wolves haven’t lost any of the eight Premier League matches in which they’ve taken the lead under Julen Lopetegui (W6 D2) – they had lost three of the first six games they’d gone ahead in this season before his appointment (W2 D1).
● Since the start of last season, only Manchester City (45) have scored more goals from set pieces in the Premier League than Brentford (43). Seven of their last 12 goals have come via a set play (two free kicks, three corners, two penalties).
● Against Newcastle, Brentford suffered their first ever Premier League defeat after taking the lead, losing 2-1. Indeed, the Bees have failed to win any of their last three games when going ahead (D2 L1).
● Wolves winger Adama Traoré is completing 3.5 take-ons per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the best ratio of any player to have played at least 1,000 minutes. Indeed, only six players have completed more in total than Traoré (48), despite him only playing 46% of the available minutes in the Premier League this campaign.
● Against Chelsea, Matheus Nunes became the 11th different Portuguese player to score in the Premier League for Wolves, five more than any other club has had players from Portugal score for them. Portuguese players have played 14,320 minutes in the Premier League for Wolves this season, the most of any non-English nationality for a team.
● Brentford’s Ivan Toney has scored 18 Premier League goals this season, with only Erling Haaland (30) and Harry Kane (23) scoring more. The last Bees player to score more goals in a top-flight campaign was Dave McCulloch in 1937-38 (26 goals).
MANCHESTER CITY V LEICESTER
5.30pm We finish a cracking Saturday with the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League as Manchester City host Leicester. If you’re sitting in the bottom three, and increasingly under pressure, the last place you want to come is Manchester City! Leicester find themselves in a worst position with each passing week, and now they find themselves in real danger of going down. In fairness, Leicester have been in the bottom three for a large part of the season but the general feeling was “they will come good at some stage” but that time has never arrived! They are now at the stage where they are odds on to go down, and a change in management hasn’t worked either. They lost 1-0 at home to Bournemouth last weekend, and their performance was terrible. They conceded an xG of 2.24, and to be honest they haven’t been good enough all season. It’s a real shame they could go down after only competing for the Champions League spots not long ago, and it wasn’t a lifetime ago that they won the title either! At this point, given the way they are playing, it’s actually hard to see them staying up.
The market sees a comfortable win for City here, with the home side trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing. Given Leicester have been so poor, I feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. They beat Bayern Munich comfortably here midweek in the Champions League – if they are scoring three against Bayern Munich, what are they going to do to Leicester!? City have been in superb form lately, and everything seems to be going right at the moment. Their last five games in all competitions have been 7-0, 6-0, 4-1, 4-1 and 3-0. They can cover the handicap here against this poor Leicester side who have been conceding sloppy goals all season. The 2.28 -2.5 goals is a very appealing bet – Leicester have been conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season, and City can put at least three past them here without much coming back. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was something like a 6-0 win for City given the way Leicester are at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Leicester at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester City (L2), winning the last four in a row since a 5-2 home defeat in September 2020.
● Leicester won four of their first five Premier League visits to Man City (L1) but have since lost five of their last six games at the Etihad (W1).
● Since losing 1-0 at Spurs in February, Man City have won seven of their last eight Premier League games (D1), including each of the last five in a row. They’ve scored 22 goals and conceded just six in this run, opening the scoring on seven occasions.
● Having lost seven of their last eight Premier League games (D1), Leicester have now lost 19 league matches overall this term. Not since 2001-02 (20) have the Foxes lost 20+ league matches in one season, while should they lose against Manchester City, it will be the joint-second earliest they have ever hit 20 defeats in a Football League campaign (31st match, level with 1914-15), after only 1980-81 (30th).
● Leicester have faced the most shots from high turnovers in the Premier League this season (50), while Manchester City have scored more goals following a high turnover than any other side (9).
● Erling Haaland has scored 30 Premier League goals for Manchester City this season, with only Andrew Cole netting more in their debut season in the competition (34 in 1993-94). The Norwegian is averaging a goal every 73 minutes so far and has a shot conversion rate of 32.3%.
● Kevin De Bruyne has assisted seven goals for Erling Haaland in the Premier League this season, the most by one Man City player for another in a single campaign. The Belgian’s next assist will be his 100th for the Citizens in the competition.
● Leicester midfielder James Maddison has scored in this exact fixture in each of the last two campaigns; only two visiting players have scored a Premier League goal at the Etihad in three consecutive seasons – Collins John (2004-05 to 2006-07) and Tim Cahill (2008-09 to 2010-11).
● Kelechi Iheanacho scored for Leicester in this exact fixture last season. The only former Man City player to score in consecutive Premier League away games against the Citizens is Paul Dickov, who did so in November 2003 and November 2004.
● Jamie Vardy has played 299 Premier League games and could be the first Leicester player to make 300 appearances in the competition. He’s scored more league goals against Pep Guardiola’s Man City than any other player (8), while he’s one of just three players to be each of a club’s record appearance maker, goal scorer and assister in the competition (along with Troy Deeney at Watford and Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace).
