SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s games between BARCELONA v ATLETICO MADRID, AC MILAN v LECCE and JUVENTUS v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V ATLETICO MADRID
3.15pm What a Sunday we have in store around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have some top class action in La Liga and Serie A with some blockbuster fixtures too! We kick the day off in La Liga with a cracker as Barcelona host Atletico Madrid. Although Barcelona basically have the title won – they are 11 points clear of Real Madrid at the start of the weekend – Atletico Madrid arrive into this fixture in superb form, they are currently on a seven game winning run, and they are also unbeaten in 13. The last side to beat them in La Liga? You guessed it, Barcelona! They lost 1-0 with home advantage, but they finished the game with an xG of 2.06 and can consider themselves unlucky. Atletico may have started the season slowly, but they have been on fire lately and they are playing some excellent football too. As Real Madrid switch their focus to the Champions League, I wouldn’t rule out Atletico catching them for second. Barcelona have dropped points in their last two games with two 0-0 draws – very winnable games against Girona and Getafe – but in fairness they finished those games with an xG of over double what they conceded, and they remain in good form. Their average xG created this season is 2.3 and their average conceded is only 0.9 – they are impressive figures.
Barcelona obviously come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. They are currently 2.02 at the time of writing with Atletico 4.3 and the draw is 3.5. There’s been a huge amount of talk around Barcelona trying to bring back Messi during the summer, but surely the financial fair play rules wouldn’t allow that! Atletico have been creating some nice xG figures coming into this game – their last six figures have been 2.31, 2.10, 1.83, 3.05, 2.21 and 2.93. I have to say the 2.02 feels a little short on Barcelona given the way Atletico have been playing lately – realistically they have nothing to lose by going for it and attacking too. The Barcelona lay is a tempting position, but Over 2.5 goals looks a cracking bet at 2.27. I know Barcelona have been involved in two 0-0’s recently, but as I highlight above they still created decent chances – they just didn’t take them. Atletico have shown enough to suggest that they can score, and we know Barcelona have been excellent up front this season too. We can see plenty of action here and cover the 2.5 goals line.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.27 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAtl
AC MILAN V LECCE
5pm We move over to Serie A next as AC Milan host Lecce. It’s been a great and bad week for AC Milan so far. The great news is they are in a Champions League Semi-Final after getting past Napoli midweek. Not many football fans were giving them a chance there too given how good Napoli have been in Serie A this season. The bad news however is Juventus had their 15 point deduction overturned which moved Juventus up into third, and thus moved AC Milan out of the top four. They started the weekend sitting in fifth, three points behind Roma. Not only do they have to worry about what’s ahead of them, they have Inter Milan just two points behind them too. AC Milan and Inter Milan will meet in the Champions League Semi-Final so I’m sure a lot of their focus will go into that tie, but they have simply dropped too many points in Serie A this season. It would be a great shame for AC Milan to win the title last season, and then not even finish in the top four afterwards. Just looking at the overall situation, this is an absolutely must win game at home against Lecce. You simply cannot afford to drop points at home against a side sitting five points away from the relegation zone if you want to finish in the top four this season. Lecce have managed to pick up more points away from home this season compared to at home, so this is another interesting game for AC Milan.
The reality is AC Milan just haven’t been good enough in Serie A lately. I feel that’s reflected in their price here at 1.52 – this is a game that they should win, but the market doesn’t fully trust them. When they’ve only won once in their last six Serie A games, who can blame the market. In fairness, they should have a better record. For example, they drew 0-0 with Empoli here but finished the game with an xG of 2.04 while only conceding 0.12. A similar story against Salernitana and they finished with an xG of close to double what they conceded last weekend against Bologna. Lecce did manage a 2-2 draw against AC Milan earlier in the season with home advantage though, and I wouldn’t be steaming into the 1.52 here. Lecce come into the game on a terrible run, without a win in seven games, but they do aim to keep games as tight as possible. They are only conceding an average xG of 1.2 this season which is low for a side so close to the relegation zone. With AC Milan struggling for goals, they are likely going to have a grind out a win here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 and that looks a nice position.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmLec
JUVENTUS V NAPOLI
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish the evening with a super fixture as Juventus host Napoli. These two sides had very different experiences within 24 hours during the week; Napoli crashed out of the Champions League and Juventus had their 15 point deduction overturned. That decision put Juventus back into third, and suddenly they are likely to have Champions League football again next season. They have lost their last two Serie A games, so they still have a battle on their hands there – especially with both of the Milan clubs starting the weekend outside of the top four. It was a good week for Juventus as they made it through to the Europa League Semi-Finals – with Manchester United crashing out against Sevilla, you’d have to fancy Juventus to win that competition now. They are certainly the best side left in the competition. They were definitely lucky to beat Sporting Lisbon – they conceded a higher xG figure than they created in both games, and conceded an xG of 2.69 away from home on Thursday night. Napoli will say they were unlucky to lose against AC Milan over the two legs too – they finished both games with higher xG figures, and created 3.03 on Tuesday night. They can’t really blame anyone else bar themselves not taking their chances with home advantage on Tuesday though.
It will be interesting to see how Napoli perform here. Obviously crashing out of the Champions League is a massive blow, and they basically have the Serie A title won so this isn’t a massive game for them. It’s a good fixture to focus on given the disappointment earlier in the week though, especially with Juve back in the top four. We have an exceptionally open market, with Napoli coming into the game as the favourites. Juventus are trading 3.0, Napoli are 2.7 and the draw is 3.25. We should have a cracking game here to be honest, Juventus have the most points at home in Serie A this season while Napoli have been fantastic away from home – they have the most points away from home. The 2.7 is a nice value price in my opinion – this game comes at a good time for Napoli in my opinion. Juventus haven’t been creating a lot lately, and they have been conceding chances too. Napoli might have crashed out of the Champions League, but the xG figure shows they played very well and they can get back to winning ways here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Juventus at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvNap
