SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s games between BOURNEMOUTH v WEST HAM and NEWCASTLE v TOTTENHAM both with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V WEST HAM
2pm While most of the focus will be on the FA Cup Semi-Final at Wembley on Sunday, we have two cracking fixtures in the Premier League as well on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with a massive game just outside the relegation battle as Bournemouth host West Ham – at the start of the weekend Bournemouth had a six points cushion over the bottom three while West Ham have a four point cushion. Bournemouth were odds on for most of the season to get relegation, but they now find themselves in a pretty strong position to stay up. They have managed to win four of their last six games, including wins against Liverpool and Spurs. Their win last weekend over Spurs was very dramatic, and I’m sure the dressing room was buzzing afterwards. They have an excellent chance of notching up another win here and really putting distance between themselves and the relegation zone. West Ham have recorded some massive results recently too – wins over Southampton and Fulham, along with a draw last weekend against Arsenal have them heading in the right direction. You’d have to say that both sides seem face from relegation at the moment, but the loser will probably be under pressure – especially if that was West Ham.
We have a very open betting heat, with West Ham favourites at the time of writing. Bournemouth are trading 2.96, West Ham are 2.72 and the draw is 3.3. Bournemouth have been conceding a lot of chances this season, their average xG conceded is a very high 1.9 but you have to say they are in a good place at the moment. That being said, despite getting wins recently they are still conceding high xG figures. They conceded xG figures of 2.30, 3.20, 2.44 and 2.45 within their last four games. West Ham had a very open game last weekend against Arsenal – both sides had xG figures of over two in a 2-2 draw. They haven’t been conceding as much as Bournemouth this season, but they do like to play an open game. Their problem this season has been converting their chances. I feel we’ll get an open game here, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.24 and I was very surprised to see it trading that high. Both sides have made plenty of mistakes at the back this season, and they aren’t afraid to go all-out attack either. The 2.24 is worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After losing their first home Premier League meeting with West Ham in January 2016 (1-3), Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last four against them at the Vitality Stadium (W2 D2).
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League games against Bournemouth and are looking to complete their first league double over the Cherries in what is the seventh different campaign in which they’ve met.
● Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League matches, the first time this season they’ve won back-to-back games. The Cherries haven’t won three Premier League games in a row within the same campaign since March 2016.
● West Ham United ended an 11-game away winless run with their 1-0 away win against Fulham – the Hammers haven’t won consecutive away games since January 2022.
● Only Aston Villa (12) have won more Premier League points in April so far than Bournemouth (9). The Cherries have won as many league games in April (3) as they did in November, December, January, February and March combined – they’ve never won four games in a single month in the Premier League.
● Since losing to Nottingham Forest in August, West Ham United have won all four of their Premier League matches against newly promoted sides. The Hammers last had five consecutive wins over promoted sides in the top-flight between April 1997 and January 1998.
● Bournemouth have won two of their last three Premier League games when conceding the first goal, having lost each of their last 10 such games before this run. They’ve won four games after conceding first this season, only doing so more often in a Premier League season in 2017-18 (five wins).
● In their four Premier League games in April 2023 so far, Bournemouth’s average expected goals total has been 1.96 per game, compared to 0.89 per game between August and March. They’ve had at least six shots on target in three of their four April games (5.8 per game), having 6+ on target efforts in just three of their first 27 league games this season (3.2 per game).
● Dominic Solanke has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other Bournemouth player this season (5 goals, 6 assists). However, he’s scored just once from 36 efforts at goal at the Vitality Stadium (3% conversion), compared to four goals from 26 shots in away league games this term (15%).
● West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has been directly involved in six goals in his last 11 Premier League appearances (3 goals, 3 assists), however all have come at the London Stadium. He hasn’t scored or assisted in any of his last 15 away appearances, with all eight of his goal involvements coming at home this season. It’s the most goals and assists in a season by a player with none away from home since Moussa Sissoko in 2015-16 (also eight).
NEWCASTLE V TOTTENHAM
2pm Brighton v Manchester United at Wembley might steal the headlines today, but this is by far the biggest fixture in the Premier League this season. Newcastle host Spurs with a place in the Top Four slipping away from Spurs with each passing week. You couldn’t call this anything other than a must win game for Spurs. Despite Conte getting sacked during the International break, Spurs have continued to drop points. Their loss against Bournemouth was a real kick in the teeth last weekend, and that went a long way to ending their Top Four hopes. If they don’t win here, then they can wave goodbye to Champions League football. That will be a hammer blow for the club, as you’d imagine they will lose Harry Kane which will have a knock on effect for next season too – it’s hard to see them breaking back into the Top Four. I know Conte was emotional and that probably doesn’t suit the Premier League, but he is a top manager and if he couldn’t get this Spurs squad in shape what hope do other managers have! Newcastle also lost last weekend, much to the delight of Manchester United fans in the Top Four race, and they were hammered away to Aston Villa. Unai Emery has Aston Villa playing superb football since he took over, but I doubt many football fans saw the 3-0 win coming given how good Newcastle have been this season! There aren’t many negatives when it comes to Newcastle this season, they have been absolutely excellent, and they are still very likely to finish in the Top Four too.
It’s a sign of the times that Newcastle are trading odds on to win here. The match odds market at the time of writing currently trade; Newcastle 1.92, Spurs 4.4 and the draw is 3.95. Most of the poorer performances from Spurs this season have come away from home so you’d have to worry about them here. Newcastle have been very strong at home too – they have been creating a host of chances this season and it’s easy to see why they are sitting in the Top Four. Their average xG created is 1.9 while their average conceded is 1.2 – stats we usually see from the top clubs around Europe. It’s also easy to see why Spurs are off the pace in the Top Four race because they create less and concede more. Spurs have been conceding sloppy goals all season though; they concede more than their xG and they have just appeared totally unorganised at times. Taking the 1.92 on Newcastle is a tempting bet, but I’m going to go for a bigger price here. Newcastle are trading 3.45 -1.5 goals and that’s worth a bet for me given how many chances Newcastle are creating, Spurs being poor away from home and conceding sloppy goals all season.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle -1.5 goals to beat Tottenham at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewTot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Only against Aston Villa (24) have Newcastle won more Premier League games than they have against Tottenham (23). They’re looking to complete their first league double over Spurs since 2015-16.
● Spurs have won four of their last five Premier League away games against Newcastle (D1), last losing at St James’ Park on the final day of the 2015-16 campaign (1-5).
● Tottenham have scored in each of their last 16 Premier League away games against Newcastle, since a 4-0 loss in December 2003. They’ve never scored in 17 consecutive away league games against an opponent before (also 16 vs Charlton between 1931 and 1999).
● Newcastle’s 3-0 defeat at Aston Villa last time out ended a five-game winning run in the Premier League. The last two times the Magpies have lost consecutive league games has been in games against Liverpool and Man City (Feb/Mar this season, Apr/May last season).
● Tottenham are winless in their last four Premier League away games (D2 L2), last having a longer such run between February and November 2019 (12 games). They’ve not won a league game outside of London since October (3-2 vs Bournemouth), with their last two away wins coming at Crystal Palace and Fulham.
● 64.9% of Tottenham’s Premier League goals this season have come in the second half of games (37/57), a league-high proportion. However, Newcastle have conceded fewer goals after half-time than any other side (13).
● Six of Spurs striker Harry Kane’s eight Premier League goals against Newcastle have come away from home. As a visiting player, only Wayne Rooney (9) has scored more goals at St James’ Park than Kane.
● Callum Wilson has been involved in eight goals in his last nine Premier League starts for Newcastle, scoring six and assisting two. The Magpies have won 56% of their league games when Wilson starts this season (9/16, one defeat), compared to 43% when he doesn’t start (6/14, three defeats).
● Son Heung-min is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for Spurs for the first time since May last season. He’s netted three goals in his last five league games, more than he had in his previous 17 appearances (2).
● Alexander Isak has scored five goals in his last six league games for Newcastle. He’s averaging a goal every 113 minutes in the Premier League this season, second only to Erling Haaland (one every 70) among players to score at least five times this term.
