SECONDS OUT! DAQMAN FIGHTING TALK: Captain Guinness (2nd 6-1) overtaken at the last and Moroder (2nd 16-1) run out of it on the run-in. Worst of all yesterday, Pricewise got one back, so it’s 11-5. Last Saturday five Daqman winners, this Saturday seconditis!
‘I’ll get back in the winner’s enclosure in Guineas week,’ says our man.
TODAY: A fascinating Ganay at Longchamp.
NEXT WEEK: The start of the Classic season, with the 2,000 Guineas (Saturday) and 1,000 Guineas (Sunday) at Newmarket.
THE SECOND SHALL BE FIRST..
FORTUNE COOKIE – 1 Get on side with this loser! As they raced around Sandown yesterday with those four fences tight together, the sweeping downhill dive and grinding uphill finish, I watched a horse take on Frodon for the lead over the twice-round three-and-a-half miles of the Gold Cup.
At first, I was thinking: who is this guy? Then I decided, this is suicide; he’ll never make it home; Frodon will sap the life out of him.
But Moroder, my 16-1 outsider, jumped and jumped until five lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and unlucky to come up against a rarity in Kitty’s Light, who somehow managed a third marathon victory in seven weeks.
My Fortune Cookies for the new NH season – which starts on Monday! – will not include Kittys Light, who will never be a price, but Moroder who, if well handled by Seamus Mullins, can win a decent prize at decent odds.
VADENI TO HOLD THEM AT BAY
FORTUNE COOKIE-2 Vadeni, beaten only half a length in the Arc, was expected to get a freeloader start to the season in the Prix Ganay this afternoon.
But there’s a surprise threat from Sir Michael Stoute with one of his famed late developers; there’s a Godolphin and there’s Andre Fabre with two plus the burgeoning Christopher Head stable.
⭕ 2.50 Longchamp (Prix Ganay) The Ganay is a cracker today but can it come up with a star from the sky-high results of the last five years?
Cracksman (2018) went on to win the Champion Stakes; Waldgeist (2019) and Sottsass (2020) both won the Arc.
The Waldgeist stable of Andre Fabre, which has taken this prize three times in the last six years, runs the Opera winner of the last Arc meeting, Place Du Carrousel, and another four-year-old, Junko.
Four-year-olds have won six of the last seven Ganays and Cracksman (Team Gosden) was sole English winner.
But Sir Michael Stoute is renowned for improving older horses and Bay Bridge was super progressive – with a ratings rise of 32lb – from six wins out of eight starts.
The lightly raced Champion Stakes winner over Derby star Adayar (with 4-1 on Baaeed only fourth) is the ‘type to progress again at four’, says the Racing Post Spotlight. Except that, deceptively from his light career, he’s FIVE!
The Harcourt winner Simca Mille could improve – at four – the Royal Oak hero, Iresine, will love the very soft ground, and Godolphin’s Real World won the Daniel Wildenstein at the 2021 Arc meeting last time he encountered deep terrain.
But, if he’s ready to vroom, Vadeni, will be very hard to vanquish as French Derby winner who beat Mishriff in the Eclipse and went down so narrowly to Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista in that fantastic Arc finish.
Betdaq Betting Exchange3.1 Vadeni
SOBER AS LONGCHAMP JUDGE
⭕ 4.35 Longchamp (Prix de Barbeville) Sober, beaten a neck in the Chaudenay and third to Iresine in the Royal-Oak, scored first time back at Chantilly in March after being gelded.
Brian Ellison’s Prix Du Cadran third, Tashkhan, second to Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot, also ran well on his return, as he always does without winning for 11 races since a handicap at Haydock in 2021.
David Menuisier tries Belloccio over a trip, for which his breeding says ‘about time!’
Bubble Gift and Big Call can’t be ruled out but Sober thought says the Fabre four-year-old could be on the way to the top. I took BETDAQ 4.0 Sober.
LIVE IN THE MOMENT AT 11.0
⭕ 4.45 Musselburgh They say eliminate the obvious to find value but, with trainer Edward Bethell in fine form, Elim can step smartly onto turf and into handicap company, down a grade here.
And the value may be provided because runners for William Haggas (Mystic Pearl) are always heavily punted in the North.
But they’re not always winners anywhere: here’s how Haggas SP favourites have fared in the last nine days: 3203023134140. I took 3.55 Elim.
⭕ 5.45 Musselburgh Urban Sprawl won three out of five last season through the grades from class 5 to a class 2 at Ascot and could continue his progress, dropped down to class 4 today. BETDAQ 5.5.
⭕ 6.45 Musselburgh You need one either side of the draw in this big-field sprint. I’ll try Abduction (stall 15), with Billy Loughnane claiming 5lb. Drops back to sprinting.
He won at Lingfield 6f last February, and continued to show his speed in 7f races under his previous trainer.
Down a stone from his peak rating, Live In The Moment, out of gate 4, could benefit from a change of stables. Beaten just two lengths at Ascot (class 2) last summer.
BETDAQ value 11 Abduction, Live In The Moment
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Longchamp
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win VADENI
4.35 Longchamp (French nap, win 12)
BET 4pts win SOBER
4.45 Musselburgh (English nap, win 10)
BET 4pts win ELIM
5.45 Musselburgh (win 10)
BET 2pts win URBAN SPRAWL
6.45 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 2pts win ABDUCTION
BET 2pts win LIVE IN THE MOMENT
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