SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games including FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. Tottenham v Brentford starts the day at 12.30pm.
TOTTENHAM V BRENTFORD
12.30pm It’s the second last weekend of the Premier League season on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! Time is running out for clubs in trouble and clubs pushing for European spots. We start the day with Spurs hosting Brentford, with time already having run out for Spurs. It’s been a disastrous season that has saw them become a laughing stock at times. They lost Conte, and that hasn’t changed much. They will have to battle hard to try and keep Harry Kane during the summer, and they’ll be hoping to keep hold of seventh spot for some European football next season with extra spots on offer with the Manchester Clubs winning the domestic Cups. Brentford are pushing for a top half finish, and that would be a great achievement for them. This should be an interesting game, both sides have been involved in a lot of entertaining games this season! Spurs only seem to come alive when they go two goals behind, and Brentford are big fans of the xG model of football. They have been playing a very open game this season in a bid to create more – their average xG created is an impressive 1.7, and to move forward and improve they need to lower than average xG conceded which is 1.6.
Spurs are the odds on favourites to win here, but only marginally as they trade 1.98 at the time of writing. Brentford are trading 4.2 while the draw is 4.0. It would take a brave punter to back Spurs in their current form – their only recent win came here against Crystal Palace, and they have been beaten by Bournemouth here, and dropped points against the likes of Southampton, Everton and Aston Villa. That’s not mentioning the 6-1 hammering by Newcastle, or conceding four goals at Anfield. It’s hard to make the case to back Spurs at odds on, especially when this game screams goals. As I said above, Spurs only come alive when they go behind and Brentford won’t sit back here either. Brentford will know they will have a lot of success attacking Spurs here who have been conceding way too many goals this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.81 and I’d personally have this at least ten ticks shorter. I feel we’re getting so much value here to start the day it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have lost just one of their nine league matches with Brentford (W4 D4), going down 2-0 away from home in March 1948 in the second tier.
● The away side has won just one of the nine previous league games between Tottenham and Brentford (D4 L4), with Brentford winless in their four visits to Spurs (D1 L3).
● Tottenham have lost their final home league game in just two of the last 14 seasons (W11 D1), going down 2-1 against Aston Villa in 2020-21, and 2-1 against Southampton in 2015-16.
● Brentford have won their final away league game in each of the last two seasons, beating Bristol City 3-1 in 2020-21 and Everton 3-2 last season. They’ve never done so in three consecutive campaigns in their league history.
● Tottenham have lost 13 Premier League games this season, and conceded 59 goals. They last lost more in a single campaign in 2008-09 (15), while they last conceded more in 2007-08 (61).
● Tottenham’s Premier League games have seen 124 goals scored this season (F65 A59), with only Arsenal’s (125) producing more. In a 38-game Premier League season (since 1995-96), only one team has both scored and conceded 60 goals in a campaign, with Spurs doing so in 2007-08 (F66 A61).
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League London derby matches and are looking to win four consecutive league games against fellow London sides for the first time since March 2009 in League Two (five in a row).
● Tottenham have scored a league-high 16 headed goals this season, their joint-most in a single Premier League campaign (also 1992-93, 1998-99 and 1999-00). The last team to net more headers were Liverpool in their 2019-20 title winning season (18).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored in 24 different Premier League games this season, the joint-most in a 38-game season in the competition. He’s also scored in a league-high six defeats this season, with only three players netting in more losses in a single campaign – Matt Le Tissier (7 in 1992-93), Charlie Austin (7 in 2014-15) and Jamie Vardy (9 in 2017-18).
● Harry Kane has scored nine goals for Tottenham in Premier League London derby matches this season – only one player has ever reached double figures in a single campaign, with Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink doing so in 2001-02 (10).
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER UNITED
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon, and I’m sure all eyes will be on how the situation plays out between Manchester United and Liverpool in the Top Four race. That’s where we start the action as Bournemouth host ten Hag’s Manchester United. Liverpool have been finishing the season very strongly, and Manchester United start the weekend with a one point advantage over Klopp’s men. They do have a game in hand as well against Chelsea next week, but United looked like they had the Top Four in the bag. Losses against Brighton and West Ham have opened the door a little, and they need to finish the season strongly now. It was probably a good thing that they didn’t have Europa League action for the last two weeks, although I’d sure they’d rather be involved in the Semi-Finals! Bournemouth have won four of their last seven games, but it’s worth noting that three of those wins have come against sides in the relegation battle – Leicester, Southampton and Leeds. They also produced a last minute win away to Spurs, but that’s probably more a reflection of Spurs rather Bournemouth to be honest! They were poor away to Crystal Palace last weekend, and there is a chance that they have mentally “switched off” now they are safe from the relegation battle. Let’s face it you couldn’t blame the players, they were odds on to go down for most of the season.
What kind of performance we get from Bournemouth here will be interesting. They might just attack because they have nothing to lose, and that could cause United problems. The 1.54 on United definitely feels a little short in my opinion. I know most of their issues have come away from home against sides in the top half of the table, but I wouldn’t trust United enough to back them this short. I’m sure there will be a lot better 1.55 shots in football this weekend. Bournemouth have been conceding a very high xG this season – their average conceded is 1.9 so I do expect goals here. The market is expecting goals as well with Over 2.5 goals trading odds on at 1.61. As I said above, United have had a lot of issues away from home and I can see an open game here. I feel Bournemouth can score at some stage and cause United problems – Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.75. United created a lot against Wolves last weekend, so I’m not worried about them scoring and 1.75 offers nice value on a Bournemouth goal as well.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have lost eight of their 11 Premier League games against Manchester United (W2 D1), though they did win 1-0 the last time they faced the Red Devils at home (November 2019).
● Manchester United have only failed to score in one of their last 14 meetings with Bournemouth in all competitions (W10 D2 L2), though it was their last visit to the Vitality Stadium in November 2019.
● Bournemouth have won their final home game in three of their five previous Premier League seasons (D1 L1), though they did lose 2-0 against Southampton in their last such campaign in 2019-20.
● Manchester United lost their final away league game of 2021-22, going down 1-0 at Crystal Palace. They’ve not lost their last away game in consecutive league campaigns since a run of four between 1988-89 and 1991-92.
● Bournemouth have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in December/January (4). None of the Cherries’ last 14 league games have been drawn (W7 L7).
● Manchester United won 16 points from their nine Premier League away games between August and December this season (W5 D1 L3), the second most in the division. However, in 2023 they’ve won just eight points from nine on the road (W2 D2 L5), with only six sides winning fewer so far this calendar year.
● Bournemouth are the only side yet to score a single Premier League goal from either a penalty or a direct free-kick this season. The last team to go through a whole campaign without scoring such a goal were Derby County in 2007-08.
● Bournemouth have conceded a league-high 27 goals from set piece situations this season (including penalties), with Hull in 2016-17 (34) the last team to concede more in a single campaign. However, Manchester United have scored fewer set piece goals than any other Premier League side this term (7).
● Manchester United have scored 11 Premier League goals via substitutes this season, with no player netting more of these than Alejandro Garnacho (3, including one against Wolves last time out). Only in 2017-18 (12) have the Red Devils scored more goals via subs.
● Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford has scored 16 Premier League goals this season, just one short of his highest in a single campaign (17 in 2019-20). He’s also netted five goals against Bournemouth in the competition (including four in his last five), only scoring more often against Leicester (8).
FULHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have Fulham hosting Crystal Palace, and with Spurs, Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal all in action today this is definitely a fixture that can get overlooked in amongst all the narratives. It’s definitely a fixture that’s just getting five minutes on Match of the Day anyway! On the face of things, Fulham have had a wonderful season. They sit just inside the top half of the table and they are going to finish ahead of their London rivals Chelsea. If you look at their under-lining numbers though they have issues to solve during the summer. Their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.9. They have got away with this because their actual goals conceded works out at an average of 1.4. That’s a lot of points in the difference, and the xG table puts them down in 15th not far away from the relegation battle. It’s been an excellent first season in the Premier League after coming back up, and to stay here they need to fix their issues at the back otherwise they could easily suffer “second season syndrome.” There should be change this summer at Crystal Palace too after they brought back in Roy Hodgson – Palace were very poor under Patrick Vieira and needed a change.
We have an open betting heat, with Fulham 2.52, Crystal Palace 3.05 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Chelsea are eight points behind Fulham so it’s hard to see them catching them even with a game in hand, while Crystal Palace have the same amount of points as Chelsea without the game in hand. The reality is neither side have much to play for here – I know finishing in the top half of the table will be a good achievement for Fulham but that’s pretty much 1.01 to lay already! Palace have been conceding a reasonably high average xG this season at 1.5, but their major issues have been up front. Their average xG created is only 1.2, but obviously we’ve had a change in manager and they have created more since then. Both sides won 2-0 last weekend against Southampton and Bournemouth, and I feel we’ll see goals here. Neither side have any reason to sit back really, and Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.84.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 3-0 win at Selhurst Park on Boxing Day, Fulham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Crystal Palace for the first time. Indeed, they’ve done the league double against them just twice before, doing so in 1924-25 and 2000-01 (both in the second tier).
● Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League away games against Fulham – it’s the only time they’ve won back-to-back league visits to the Cottagers, and as many wins as they managed in their previous 14 beforehand (D5 L7).
● Fulham have won three Premier League London derby matches this season (D1 L7), though they are winless in their last five. They’ve never won four London derbies in a single top-flight campaign before.
● Fulham have won their final home game in just one of their last eight Premier League campaigns (D2 L5), beating Sunderland 2-1 in 2011-12.
● Crystal Palace have lost their final away league game in each of the last three seasons – they last did so in more consecutively between 1949-50 and 1953-54 (5).
● Fulham have won their last two Premier League games, winning 5-3 against Leicester and 2-0 to relegate Southampton. They’ve not won three consecutive top-flight games by a margin of more than one goal each time since December 1966.
● Crystal Palace have won five of their eight Premier League games since Roy Hodgson returned to the club (D1 L2), just one fewer than they had in their 28 games previously this season (W6 D9 L13).
● Fulham’s Carlos Vinícius has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 32 in the competition.
● Aleksandar Mitrovic scored at Southampton on his return from a lengthy ban last time out, his 12th Premier League goal of the season. Only three Fulham players have ever netted more in a single campaign – Louis Saha (13 in 2003-04), Clint Dempsey (17 in 2011-12) and Dimitar Berbatov (15 in 2012-13).
● Eberechi Eze is Crystal Palace’s top Premier League goalscorer with 10 goals this season, with six of those coming in his last seven appearances. His goals have been worth 11 points to the Eagles, the most for the club in a single campaign since Jordan Ayew in 2019-20 (14).
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
3pm This is definitely the highlight of the 3pm games as Liverpool host Aston Villa. Every game is a must win game at the moment for Liverpool as they try to make a last ditch attempt at the Top Four. They are finishing the season very strongly, and they recorded another smooth 3-0 win over Leicester on Monday night. Aston Villa have been excellent under Unai Emery, they are creating more chances than ever before and they even find themselves in the mix for a European spot sitting in eighth. They start the weekend with the same amount of points as Spurs and we’re going to have extra spots in the Premier League with the Manchester Clubs winning both domestic cups so the target for Villa has to be seventh. I can’t see Villa sitting back here, they just haven’t really done that under Emery so we should have a very entertaining game. Liverpool are trading the shortest price of the day at 1.51 with Aston Villa at 6.8 and the draw is 5.2. The market is expecting goals too with Over 2.5 goals trading at 1.59. I have to say this game does scream goals to be honest.
Liverpool have been very entertaining to watch this season for the casual football fan. They’ve been conceding a host of chances and goals, at the same time being fantastic going forward. Their average xG conceded this season a very high 1.6 and it was higher this season but it’s come down since they started playing better recently. Their average xG going forward is impressive at 2.2, and the average xG per Liverpool game is 3.8 which is great viewing! Obviously Emery took over Villa so I don’t read much into their average figures because they were so poor under Steven Gerrard. Liverpool have kept three clean sheets in a row, but I feel Villa can score at some stage here. They have created enough under Emery to suggest the 1.75 on Both Teams To Score is value here and this should be a very entertaining game. Villa battled for a 2-1 win over Spurs last weekend, and you wouldn’t actually be very surprised to see them get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Aston Villa, with the exception being a 7-2 loss at Villa Park in October 2020.
● Having won three and lost just one of their six Premier League visits to Anfield between 2009-10 and 2014- 15, Aston Villa have lost their last four away league games against Liverpool.
● Liverpool have lost six Premier League home games against Aston Villa overall, only losing more often at Anfield in the competition against Manchester United (12) and Chelsea (7).
● Liverpool have won their final home game in each of the last six Premier League campaigns. Indeed, they’ve only lost their last match at Anfield in one of the last 11 seasons (W9 D1), going down 3-1 against Crystal Palace in 2014-15.
● Aston Villa have won their last away league game in just two of the last 20 seasons, beating Spurs 2-1 in 2020-21 and Arsenal by the same score in 2010-11.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 Premier League home games (W9 D2), winning the last four by a margin of one goal (3-2, 4-3, 1-0, 1-0). They’ve not won more consecutively at Anfield without any of them being by more than a single goal since a run of seven between January and April 1974.
● Since the weekend of Unai Emery’s first Premier League game in charge of Aston Villa, only Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool have won more points than the Villans (45). However, the Spaniard is winless in his last seven meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D2 L5), since beating them in the 2016 Europa League final with Sevilla.
● Aston Villa have scored 12 goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season, accounting for 25% of their total. However, all but one of these goals have come at Villa Park.
● Mohamed Salah has scored in each of his last nine home games in all competitions, a record for a Liverpool player in their history. Since he joined the Reds ahead of the 2017-18 season, he’s scored more home goals in all competitions than any other Premier League player (101).
● Ollie Watkins has scored more Premier League goals against Liverpool than he has against any other opponent (5), netting Aston Villa’s goal in their 3-1 defeat earlier this season. Having already scored home and away Premier League goals against the Reds in 2020-21, he could become the first Aston Villa player to do so in multiple campaigns in the competition.
WOLVES V EVERTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with the most open market of the day as Wolves host Everton. Time is ticking down in the relegation battle and for the time being Everton are sitting outside the bottom three. They start the weekend with a one point advantage over Leeds who play West Ham on Sunday and two points over Leicester who play Newcastle on Monday night. They are also two points away from Nottingham Forest who meet Arsenal later. There’s still plenty of time left for drama in the relegation battle! Everton come into this game as the marginal favourites. They are currently trading 2.74 with Wolves 2.84 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. I know there really isn’t much between the sides here, only ten ticks in the market, but I feel the odds are the wrong way around. This is very much a “need to win” price on Everton. Home advantage is the key here in my opinion – we have almost had two Wolves sides this season because they have been so different at home and away. They have won their last four home games and lost their last three away games so they are living up to that tag!
Away from home this season Wolves have only managed 11 points from 18 games. That puts them in the bottom three on the away form table – only Leeds and Nottingham Forest have worse records than that. At home it’s been a different story however, they actually sneak into the top half of the home form table. I’d definitely have Wolves as the favourites here – I know Everton have a lot more to play for, but I can’t have them as favourites. I wouldn’t read too much into the Man City loss, that happens everyone, but Everton did play well away from home against Brighton and Leicester creating a lot and scoring a lot. I’m happy to keep stakes small with that in mind, but Wolves are a very solid side with home advantage and the 2.74 is a good value lay on Everton in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Wolves at 2.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves have won their last three Premier League games against Everton, as many as they had in their first 14 against them in the competition beforehand (D5 L6).
● Everton have lost two of their last three away league games against Wolves – they’ve not lost consecutive league visits to Molineux since December 1983/May 2004, while they’ve not lost there in consecutive campaigns since 1977-78/1978-79.
● Wolves have failed to win their final home league game in either of the last two seasons (D1 L1), having won in six of the seven campaigns before this (D1).
● Everton have won their final away league game in just one of the last seven seasons (D1 L5), beating Sheffield United 1-0 in 2019-20. Their last two such games have seen them lose 5-0 to Man City (2020-21) and 5-1 to Arsenal (2021-22).
● Wolves have won their last four Premier League home games without conceding a single goal. They last won five in a row at Molineux in the top-flight in August 1973, while they last did so while keeping a clean sheet each time in December 1969.
● Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since May 2021. They’ve scored seven in their last two on the road (including a 5-1 win at Brighton last time out), as many as they had in their previous 13 combined.
● Wolves are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season with 30 goals. They’ve netted a league- high share 27% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes of games (8/30), though Everton have conceded fewer in this timeframe than any other side (2).
● Rúben Neves and Daniel Podence are Wolves’ highest scorers in the Premier League this season (6 goals each), with no other player netting more than twice for the club. No side has a lower scoring top scorer in the competition this term.
● Dwight McNeil is Everton’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with seven goals. Five of these strikes have come since Sean Dyche took charge of the club in February.
● Since losing his first ever Premier League meeting with Wolves in September 2018, Everton boss Sean Dyche is unbeaten in his last six against them (W3 D3). His last two games against them have both been at Molineux, with his Burnley side winning 4-0 in April 2021, and drawing 0-0 in December the same year.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Nottingham Forest hosting Arsenal. It’s been an excellent season for Arsenal, but any slim title hopes they had left ended last weekend with a 3-0 loss at home against Brighton. They were already in a position of needing Manchester City to drop points, but that loss effectively ended their small hopes. Obviously the debate about whether or not it’s a good season for Arsenal is a very good one – one side say it’s poor to “lose” the title from being so far ahead and the other side say getting Champions League football after so long is a massive success. The reality is both opinions are true, but getting back into the Champions League is an excellent result and a massive step forward for the club. Let’s be real – they would have taken it at the start of the season and not kicked a ball. They have a young squad, and they got to experience that title race pressure. They definitely came up short this time, but if they ever get themselves back into that situation I’m sure they’ll handle it better. After the loss to Brighton, a game where they were outplayed with home advantage too, it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction we get here. They could easily still be feeling sorry for themselves and Nottingham Forest will be looking to take full advantage. Forest grinded out a 2-2 draw last weekend with Chelsea, a massive result for them considering their away form this season.
Forest have been a much better side at home. They have only managed seven points away from home this season, the worst away record in the Premier League. They will be hopeful of getting something here with home advantage, and they might feel that this is a good time to meet Arsenal. Forest start the weekend three points away from Leeds sitting in the relegation zone, but they are away on the final day with Everton, Leeds and Leicester all at home. They aren’t out of the woods yet, despite the advantage they have now. Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.62, and I’m sure there will be some big opinion on the price either side of the book! Forest have been playing a very open game recently – their games have been packed with goals and Arsenal won’t stop the flow of the game here either. This game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is a very appealing price at 1.63 – just one tick higher than the Arsenal win but I believe it offers a lot more value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have won just two of their last 10 home league games against Arsenal (D1 L7), with this the first time they’re hosting them in the Premier League since a 1-0 loss in January 1999.
● Arsenal won 5-0 against Nottingham Forest in the reverse fixture at the Emirates this season – only once have they done the Premier League double over Nottingham Forest, doing so in 1998-99.
● Arsenal have won their last four Premier League games against Nottingham Forest – they’ve never won five in a row against them in their league history.
● Though they haven’t beaten Arsenal at home in the league since December 1996, Nottingham Forest have won their last two meetings with the Gunners overall at the City Ground, winning FA Cup ties in 2018 and 2022. They last won three in a row against them between 1984 and 1986.
● Nottingham Forest have only lost their final home game in one of their last eight top-flight seasons (W5 D2). This defeat came against Sheffield United in 1992-93, with the 2-0 loss confirming their relegation from the Premier League.
● Arsenal have lost their final away league game in two of the last three seasons (W1), as many times as they had in their previous 18 campaigns (W11 D5).
● Arsenal have spent 248 days top of the Premier League this season, but now have less than a 1% chance of winning the title according to our predictor model. It would be the most days spent top of the table without finishing first in a single season in English top-flight history.
● Nottingham Forest have earned seven points from their last four Premier League games (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 combined (W1 D4 L8). Meanwhile, they’ve scored at least twice in four of their last five league games, just once fewer than they had in their first 31 this term.
● Taiwo Awoniyi has scored four goals in his last two Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 23. With braces against Southampton and Chelsea in his last two games, he could become just the second Nottingham Forest player to score multiple goals in three consecutive Premier League appearances, after Bryan Roy in March/April 1995.
● Arsenal have only failed to score in one of their 18 Premier League away games this season, a 0-1 loss at Everton in February. Captain Martin Ødegaard has scored more on the road than any other Arsenal player this season (9), with Riyad Mahrez the last midfielder to reach double figures in a single campaign (12 with Leicester in 2015-16).
