SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V MAINZ
2.30pm What a Saturday we have in store around Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some top class action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga to enjoy on what should be a cracking day. We start Saturday in the Bundesliga where Dortmund go into the final day with the title in their own hands. All they have to do is beat Mainz and they end Bayern Munich’s run of dominance. Dortmund last won the title back in 2011/12 and it’s been a long wait! Bayern have lifted the last ten Bundesliga titles while Dortmund have finished behind them in second six times. It’s hard to believe that they now have their best chance of lifting the title without the incredible Erling Haaland. Not taking anything away from Dortmund who have been excellent, but this season it’s been clear that Bayern Munich haven’t been at their best. As I have been saying over the recent weeks, Dortmund would have been kicking themselves to let this chance go. Bayern had things in their own hands until last week when they lost at home to RB Leipzig. Dortmund did have a lead but dropped points against Stuttgart and Bochum who are starting the final day in the relegation battle, although Stuttgart are just outside the bottom three on goal difference.
Dortmund come into the game as the exceptionally short favourites. They are trading as short as 1.19 with Mainz 16.5 and the draw is 9.4. Anything bar a Dortmund win would be a big shock – probably a result they would never forget. Bayern Munich have a better goal difference, so Dortmund must win. The good news for Dortmund fans is that they have been exceptional at home this season – they have racked up 43 points from 16 games at home this season. That’s five more than Bayern Munich from one less game – if they win the title it will be due to their incredible home form. We have landed some nice Max Bets on Dortmund at home recently, and to cover Handicap’s too. It’s fair to say that they might be a little nervous heading into this game – it has been such a long wait for this opportunity. Mainz have finished the season poorly however, they’ve lost their last four games and they are conceding an average xG figure of 1.5 this season. They have lost against Schalke and Stuttgart this month already too, two sides in the relegation battle. Dortmund can win the title in style here in my opinion, and I like 1.49 -1.5 goals to cover the Handicap.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Dortmund -1.5 goals to beat Mainz at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorMai
FIORENTINA V ROMA
5pm Next we move over to Serie A for a top class fixture as Fiorentina host Roma. It’s fair to say these two sides have had their eyes elsewhere because Fiorentina had a Coppa Italia Final on Wednesday night against Inter Milan and Roma have a Europa League Final coming up against Sevilla. Unfortunately for Fiorentina, Wednesday night ended is disappointment with a 2-1 loss to Inter Milan. They had a dream start too, taking the lead after just three minutes. You have to say Inter Milan have been in great form lately and Fiorentina were really up against it – however it still would have been a massive blow. It’s hard to know what Jose Mourinho is going to do here team selection wise – with Juventus getting a ten point deduction they opens the race up for European spots again! What drama we’ve had in the top four race in Italy this season! Juventus looked good for second after getting their 15 point deduction overturned, and now Roma start the weekend four points behind AC Milan sitting in fourth. That Juventus new was a huge bonus for AC Milan who looked certain to miss out on the top four. It’s unlikely Roma are going to catch AC Milan with only two games left, but they have to go for it and try win their final two games. That does make team selection here a tricky decision for Mourinho.
In an ideal world, he’d like to rest some key players for Wednesday. Mourinho’s success at Roma has actually been remarkable – he led them to their first major European trophy last season in the Europa Conference League and now they could follow up with the Europa League! We have an open market here, with Fiorentina coming into the game as favourites with home advantage. They are currently trading 2.48 with Roma 3.25 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Fiorentina have been solid at home this season, and Roma have been on a poor run in Serie A. It’s been six games without a win now, just at the worst time of the season. To be honest, they should be sitting in the top four! Roma have been involved in plenty of low scoring games recently, but we did see a 2-2 draw with Salernitana on Monday. I still feel Under 2.5 goals offers nice value here at 1.73 – Fiorentina don’t play an open game either, and I feel we’ll see a very cagey game without many chances.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioRma
SEVILLA V REAL MADRID
6pm We move to La Liga next as Sevilla host Real Madrid. Usually we have the final two La Liga matchdays at the same time, but La Liga have moved this fixture forward to allow Sevilla extra time for their Europa League Final against Roma next week. That fixture is obviously massive for Sevilla – not only because it’s a major European Final but it’s their last chance of getting back into serious European football next season. They have had a terrible season in La Liga, they even sat in the relegation zone for weeks! They have had superb momentum recently however, ever since they came from 2-0 down against Manchester United in the Europa League Quarter-Final. They’ve won five of their last eight La Liga games, and obviously they’ve recorded brilliant wins over Manchester United and Juventus in the Europa League too. Both sides were action midweek, with Sevilla drawing 1-1 away to Elche and Real Madrid winning 2-1 against Rayo Vallecano. Real Madrid have nothing to play for as they finish the season, over all they had a disappointing season despite winning the Copa del Rey. They would have been gutted to lose the title back to Barcelona, and then they were totally outclassed by Manchester City in the Champions League.
That draw against Elche midweek from Sevilla probably ruled out their chances of taking the final European spot on offer. To be honest they would hardly have much interest in the Europa Conference League either given the success they have had. All their focus will be on the Europa League Final midweek, and I would expect to see some of their key players rested here. We have a very open market with Real Madrid favourites at 2.5, Sevilla are trading 2.82 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. This is definitely not a game for high stakes given the situation with both sides. Real have been playing a very open game in La Liga recently however, so I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. They have really taken an entertaining approach since the title race was over, and I would expect changes to the Sevilla line-up here so we can have an open game with plenty of chances. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but 1.63 looks a nice option.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevRma
INTER MILAN V ATALANTA
7.45pm We move back to Serie A to finish the day as Inter Milan host Atalanta. This is a must win game for Atalanta who start the game five points behind Inter Milan and three points behind AC Milan in the race for a top four finish. That Juventus ten point deduction has thrown things wide open again, but it would be unlikely to see Atalanta break into the top four again in fairness. Nevertheless, Inter Milan are under a little pressure after that loss to Napoli. Despite that, it’s still been a brilliant week for them as they landed the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina. They started the game on the backfoot going behind after just three minutes but they fought hard to bounce back and win. They also have to prepare for a massive Champions League Final with Manchester City too. The plan for Inter has to be win this game, box off the top four and then they are able to rest players leading into the Champions League Final. They come into this game as the odds on favourites. The home win is 1.92 at the time of writing with Atalanta trading 4.2 and the draw is 4.0. Apart from that Napoli loss last weekend, who have been excellent Champions this season, it’s hard to fault Inter.
They have created an average xG of 1.8 this season and only conceded 0.9. They have been playing some top class football, and at times they have been very unlucky too. They lost a lot of points in March and April when they shouldn’t have. For example they lost 2-1 to Spezia with an xG of 3.51 and 1-0 to Fiorentina with an xG of 2.71. It’s their own fault for not taking their chances! Atalanta have been very solid this season – they aren’t a flashy side but they get the job done. Their average xG created is 1.5 and their average conceded is 1.1. Solid stats, and although they had a mid-season wobble they have bounced back to contend for the top European spots. Hopefully we get a thriller because we saw a 3-2 win for Inter when the sides met earlier in the season! That was unusual for these sides however as seven of the last ten Serie A meetings have had Under 2.5 goals. That’s a tempting price here at 2.24, and although I also like the Inter win at 1.92, Under 2.5 goals at odds against looks cracking value. I really thought it would be odds on never mind close to 2.0!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntAta
