DANTE COUNTDOWN TO TWO DERBYS: The first five home in the Dante Stakes are all confirmed as Derby runners this weekend: The Foxes (1st), White Birch (2nd) and Passenger (dd ht 3rd) will run at Epsom, while Continuous (dd ht 3rd) and Epictetus (5th) are confirmed for Sunday’s French Derby. Big Rock (Christopher Head) and Feed The Flame (Pascal Bary) are the favourites in France.
DERBY AND OAKS ABC GUIDES: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s ABC Guide to the Epsom Derby. TODAY: The Oaks.
11 ARE LEFT IN FRIDAY’S OAKS
UPDATE: Only 11 were declared today for Friday’s Oaks, with Boogie Woogie, Dance In The Grass, Jackie Oh and Warm Heart absentees. Christian Demuro, who has ridden Heartache Tonight in three French races, will fly over to keep the partnership intact.
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Friday (The Oaks) DRAW: winners by stall last 13 years: 15, 7, 10, 3, 9, 2, 4, 9, 3, 3, 5, 12, 1.
OFFICIAL RATING of the winner: 107, 99, 108, 96, 103, 102, 119, 107, 99, 103, 116, 108, 109.
WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 10, Team Gosden 3, Ralph Beckett 2. JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 6, Ryan Moore 4.
KEY TO WINNER FINDING
A RATING 102 or higher (10/13)
B FORM won Listed; placed Group race or Trial (12/13)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien, Team Gosden.
ABCD SAVETHELASTDANCE (Aidan O’Brien) Raced only on soft-heavy, winning 22 lengths in the Cheshire Oaks, beating only a handicapper and a novice but the sectional times were good and she was awarded a rating 7lb more than Enable when she won this trial.
ABCD SOUL SISTER (Team Gosden) Daughter of Frankel and sister to a stayer; went to the Musidora on 84 and beat the 113-rated Fillies Mile runner-up, with a powerful charge from the rear under Frankie Dettori, only having to be shaken up to display an impressive turn of foot.
ABCD RUNNING LION (Team Gosden) Grey daughter of Roaring Lion, unbeaten in four starts since her debut, winning the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on testing ground.
ABC HEARTACHE TONIGHT (David Menuisier) Allowed to lead when placed twice in France, including fourth in the Saint-Alary Group 1 at Longchamp (very soft). Half-sister to four times Group winning stayer Wonderful Tonight.
ABD RED RIDING HOOD (Aidan O’Brien) Third in the Blue Wind at Naas (1m 2f, good), pulling hard early and not certain to stay. Likely Ballydoyle pacemaker.
AB ETERNAL HOPE (Charlie Appleby) Not bred to stay but won the Lingfield Oaks Trial (AW). Oaks will be first run on grass.
BCD Be Happy (Aidan O’Brien), BC Bright Diamond (Karl Burke), BC Sea Of Roses (Andrew Balding), B Caernarfon (Jack Channon), C Maman Joon (Richard Hannon)
HE CAN STAAR AGAIN
⭕ 4.50 Hamilton 43 runners spread across seven races at Hamilton this afternoon – only one more runner than an equivalent greyhound card 🙁
Despite the paucity of runners the racing remains quite competitive and my best bet on the card is saved for the 4.50 where the Michael Dods trained Arkenstaar can follow up on his course and distance win 12 days ago.
He’s up 5lb but remains quite lightly raced and might still be progressive in handicaps where he has shown better form. This doesn’t look much more competitive than his previous race here.
The Betdaq Betting Exchange market looks to have got it spot on in suggesting that the main danger may come from the Charlie Johnston trained Hi Clare. The filly showed good form on good to firm ground at Nottingham last year but will need to be fully wound up after a 244 day break and running off a career high mark.
MURPHY’S LAW
⭕ 5.12 Beverley Without being disrespectful to her previous pilots but the booking of Oisin Murphy for the consistent mare Cloudy Rose has to be considered a big positive.
Newmarket handler John Berry has secured Murphy for the finale and Cloudy Rose is taken to follow up on her Brighton win last time out. That overdue first win caught the eyes of the stewards and the explanation was that the drop back in trip was the reason for apparent ‘improved’ form.
As an aside, it always puzzles me why the stewards look at ‘improved’ form in handicap company when it’s the handicappers job to get them to finish in a straight line. It can hardly be a massive shock when ANY horse wins a handicap and when there are big surprises at either end of the field surely it’s the handicapper that should be hauled in?
FOUND THE CRAVEN WINNER
⭕ 7.10 Warwick The market says this is a coin flip between Everyonesgame and Global Famenglory but I’ll take a chance with third in Craven Bay – staking in such a way that a place (1,2) will win us 10 points on the race and a win will be a 50 point bonus.
It will take a lot to get both market leaders beaten but I could easily see one of them running below par.
I couldn’t be confident backing either of the principals who are both ridden by conditionals.
Everyonesgame was a disappointing beaten odds on favourite at Worcester last time out whilst Global Famenglory has three times been a beaten favourite and needs to bounce back from a last flight fall last time out.
We don’t know much about Craven Boy apart from him bringing some decent Point form into the race winning his last two races and he should handle the quick ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.50 Hamilton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.8pts win ARKENSTAAR
5.12 Beverley (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win CLOUDY ROSE
7.10 Warwick (win 50, place 10 covering the win stake)
BET 4pts win, 4.2pts place CRAVEN BAY
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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