SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top matches as the season draws to a close all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V INTER MILAN
5.30pm It’s the final weekend around Europe, and we have a busy weekend ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with action from Serie A, the German Cup, Ligue 1 on Saturday and then we finish La Liga on Sunday. Serie A have broken their fixtures up over the weekend into blocks of sides competing for European spots and relegation, and we kick the weekend off with Torino hosting Inter Milan. This is essentially a “meaningless” game as Torino are too far away to reach the European spots just a place above them, and after the results last weekend Inter Milan are now certain of a top four finish. The only thing to decide is where they finish within the top four, but I don’t think they’ll care much about that given they have a Champions League Final next week against Manchester City. It’s hard to see Inter giving this game much focus, and Torino have a good opportunity to record a nice win in front of their own fans to end the season. After finishing 17th in 2020/21, sitting in 8th place heading into the final weekend is a great achievement for Torino – they are heading in the right direction, but it’s not their best finish. They have been yo-yoing up the table for a few years.
It will be interesting to see what kind of XI Inter name here, and the market is expecting a weak one. We have an open market, but Torino come into the game as the favourites. The home win is trading 2.46 at the time of writing with Inter Milan 3.15 and the draw is 3.55. Obviously Inter Milan have been playing the better football this season, but I don’t think that matters here given the situation. Torino have finished out their season well, but they have been playing weaker sides recently. Their under-lining numbers aren’t too impressive. They create an average xG of 1.2 and concede 1.1 – obviously they try to keep games as tight as possible. At home they haven’t been too good; only 22 points from 18 games is one of the poorer returns at home and puts them in the bottom six. They’ve actually been much better away from home, and sit in the top four on the away table – above Inter Milan who can’t even catch them with a win here. Torino clearly struggle a little to create chances, and their home form would put me off them at 2.46 even allowing for the situation. I feel Under 2.5 goals is a nice option here – Inter will just want to tick this box and we could have a very low tempo affair.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TorInt
RB LEIPZIG V EINTRACHT FRANKFURT
7pm Next we have the biggest game of the day as RB Leipzig take on Eintracht Frankfurt in the German Cup! RB Leipzig have finished the Bundesliga season very strongly – after beating Bayern Munich on the second last weekend it looked like they had handed Dortmund the title only for Dortmund to throw it away at home on the final day. With seven wins from their last eight games, they only ended up three points behind Bayern Munich and Dortmund which was a good finish considering they started the season slowly. They had only managed one win in their opening five games of the season! Eintracht Frankfurt unfortunately missed out on a European spot in the Bundesliga, but they will end up getting one here. The winners of the German Cup go into the Europa League, but because RB Leipzig have finished in the top four an extra spot will go to the Bundesliga which will mean Eintracht Frankfurt get into Europe. That’s a nice situation considering they have had an good Cup run. I would be wary of calling it an excellent Cup run as they did have a relatively easy draw to here. They beat Union Berlin in the Quarter-Final which was a nice result, but then they were fully entitled to win the Semi-Final against Stuttgart who finished in the relegation playoff spot in the Bundesliga.
It’s not a surprise to see RB Leipzig come into the game as the favourites. They are trading odds on at 1.76 at the time of writing with Eintracht Frankfurt 4.7 and the draw is 4.2. Neither side likes to play a cagey game, so we should have an entertaining affair here. Both sides had an average of over three goals per Bundesliga game that they were involved in this season. RB Leipzig have the better stats with an average xG created of 1.9 and average conceded of 1.1. Eintracht Frankfurt have created a little less at 1.6 and conceded a little more at 1.3, but they are still reasonably solid stats. The 1.76 on RB Leipzig is a very tempting bet, and so is Over 2.5 goals at 1.61. Neither side are going to sit back here, however I’m happy to go with the RB Leipzig bet at 1.76 – they have finished the season so strongly they couldn’t come into this Final in a better place, and I’d have them a little under 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win RB Leipzig to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblFra
PSG V CLERMONT
8pm We move over to France to finish the action on Saturday as they finished the season in Ligue 1. We might have some drama in the race for a Europa League spot and the relegation battle but as always the focus is on PSG. It’s a massive summer ahead for the biggest club in France but have seemed in disarray this season. Messi isn’t hanging around to find out how the future goes, and you have to say he’s been a flop in Paris. He hasn’t seemed interested in improving the team, and hasn’t played his best football. His performances for PSG compared to Argentina at the World Cup were night-and-day apart – even in the Champions League where you’d expect him to really come alive. Obviously PSG have a tonne of issues in the dressing room and with management, and with how the club is run. That all isn’t an easy fix, especially given all the egos and the money involved. Neymar JR doesn’t seem the type of create a good atmosphere in a dressing room either, and one wonders what will happen with him. That’s not even mentioning Mbappe and the contract he was given. However, the reality on the pitch is that PSG are lacking outside of the top three.
That has been exposed in the big games this season, and especially in the Champions League. PSG don’t really have to be at the best to win Ligue 1, and they have a four point lead heading into the final day with the title in the bag. They drew their last game 1-1 away to Strasbourg and finished the game with a lower xG figure too, so they’ve probably switched off for the summer in fairness. At home this season they haven’t been that good. On the home form table they only sit in fourth, and a win here would only see them finish third, still nine points behind Lens. Where they have won the title is their away form which has been excellent. As you would expect they come into this game as the odds on favourites. They are trading as short as 1.23 at the time of writing which must surely be the shortest price around Europe this weekend. Clermont sit in mid-table and they are reasonably solid, but they do struggle for goals and on average they concede more chances than they create. PSG will run out winners, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the odds suggest. Clermont can keep the score line respectable, and I feel it’s worth laying Any Other Home Win (PSG to score four or more and win) at 2.65 in the Correct Score market. I don’t think this PSG team have a good relationship with the fans, so they’ll be just going through the motions here. It’s hard to believe we call winning the title a poor season for PSG, but this has been a season to forget on the pitch and off it.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgCle
