DAQMAN WINS HIS FOURTH CLASSIC: Daqman named first and second in yesterday’s Oaks with a one-two for his Fortune Cookies, Soul Sister (WON 11-4) and Savethelastdance. It was his FOURTH Classic win this season already, after the Newmarket 2,000 then the Irish Guineas double. Soul Sister took him into a 26-12 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post.
WON 11-4 SOUL SISTER (Epsom Oaks)
WON 2-5 TAHIYRA (Irish 1,000 Guineas)
WON 3-1 PADDINGTON (Irish 2,000 Guineas)
WON 7-2 CHALDEAN (Newmarket 2,000 Guineas)
NOW FOR THE DERBY: Daqman describes today’s Derby as a partisan ‘I told you so’ Classic, so wide open and based on soft-ground form that you can only take sides and hope for a result. Here he compares the obvious ‘what might be’ with the consequent ‘what might have been.’ Headlines:
DERBY WINNER AT BETDAQ 15.0
THERE’S ‘GOLD’ IN THE DRAW
MOUNTAIN OF BETDAQ VALUE
KADOVAR SET TO DEFY DRIFT
SHEER THOROUGHBRED CLASS
DERBY WINNER AT BETDAQ 15.0
⭕ 1.30 Epsom (The Derby) Daqman ABC guide Thursday
LAYS LOGIC: The Frankie Dettori factor may decide the favourite but in the words of the colt’s trainer: ‘We need buckets of rain; then Arrest might have a chance;’ quote unquote John Gosden.
DRAW: winners by stall (13 years): 8, 7, 5, 10, 12, 8, 9, 14, 10, 7, 12, 1, 12
RATING: 108, 113, 121, 109, 119, 118, 110, 109, 117, 118, – , 121, 117
TRAINER: Aidan O’Brien 8, Sir Michael Stoute 6, Charlie Appleby 2, John Gosden 2
JOCKEY: Frankie Dettori 2, Ryan Moore 2, William Buick 1, Seamie Heffernan 1, Richard Kingscote 1.
IT’S A BIG ‘IF’ for all in this year’s Derby! But whichever proves the right side to be on in a truly partisan colts Classic, everyone will chorus ‘I told you so’ from the same hymn-sheet.
IF Auguste Rodin wins, ‘they’ will say: ‘You should have trusted Aidan O’Brien. He’d won it eight times before and he wouldn’t have run if the colt wasn’t right after his Guineas flop; he told you that was ‘no race.’
(If you’re on and he loses, face these words from the know-alls: ‘He won a substandard Futurity last year and was rubbish in the Guineas; why on earth did you back that?’)
IF Passenger wins, ‘they’ will say: ‘Sir Michael Stoute always ran his Derby winner in the Dante and he was so stopped in his run that day!’.
(If he loses, the script reads: ‘Yes, he looked hampered at York, but you can’t bet on potential. The horse had only won a maiden!’)
IF The Foxes wins, they’ll say: ‘You know the Dante winner wins the Derby!’ If the Dante runner-up, White Birch, wins, then: ‘Don’t you know the Dante second has won the Derby before!’
Does Frankie Dettori ‘Arrest’ your attention? (‘I always back, Frankie; he never let’s me down.’)
Are you on Military Order? (‘Charlie Appleby and champion jockey Wlliam Buick: what more do you want? And his brother, Adayar, won the Derby!’)
IF you want my opinion.. I gotta horse! I’ve checked out the form and where this horse is he must be in front of the Dante finishers.
Look at his trial, and you will see him take command in a mature and controlled way, going clear.
Look at the history of that race and it’s the same trial won by Galileo, High Chaparral and Sinndar before their brilliant Epsom victories.
IF you want value on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE take the 15.0 Sprewell. That’s his name.
But, if he’s beaten by Auguste Rodin or Passenger, remember to follow FORTUNE COOKIES every week in BETDAQ Tips! They got you the Oaks one-two yesterday.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1 Sprewell (BETDAQ 15.0), 2 Auguste Rodin 5.0, 3 Passenger 8.0
THERE’S ‘GOLD’ IN THE DRAW
⭕ 2.45 Epsom (3-Y-O Dash): Winners by stall suggest we really have no choice but to go high and go low, taking extreme numbers.
Democracy Dilemma has won on turf only on soft ground, but the one stall is a tricky call for a pacemaker and he may help Can To Can (out of 2) but he is a class-4 animal whereas Miss Brazen (4) looks a ‘hidden horse’ in the low numbers.
Lightly raced and scored 3-8. She’s won on a tough sprint track at Beverley and was thereabouts on firm at the end of a big-field charge at York. Tom Marquand booked.
If you’re going high, Russet Gold (14) has raced just four times, impressing on firm, and could take another step forward after being gelded.
Tallulah Myla (12) has bags of speed and this drop to the minimum trip seems sure to suit. If she doesn’t last out, she will have helped Russet Gold get pace.
BETDAQ value 9.5 Russet Gold, 10.0 Miss Brazen
MOUNTAIN OF BETDAQ VALUE
⭕ 3.20 Epsom (Dash): You have to be a masochist to attempt to pick the winner of another ‘dash’ down the Epsom slope!
All we can do is look at the high or the low again – or both – and hope we are drawn to the winner! The market tells you it’s a very open race but it could be an all-girls’ party.
Lihou (Hollie Doyle) and Angle Land (Hayley Turner), one two at Goodwood last month, meet again for a showdown here, out of high stalls 17 and 18.
Vintage Clarets (19) looks good when you dedact all races other than when well enough drawn over 5f on a sound surface. Oisin Murphy rides.
Mountain Peak (stall 13 today) was just held in this race last year out of gate 2, with Mokaatil (11) out of 9 in fourth and Live In The Moment 8th.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 8.4 Vintage Clarets, 18 Mountain Peak
KADOVAR SET TO DEFY DRIFT
⭕ 3.55 Epsom (Lester Piggott Handicap): It’s Cup Final day! Time to talk about sporting greats.
When I name my ‘best-ever cricketer,’ I get sideways looks – Gary Sobers? – and eyebrows are raised and heads shake in disbelief at my ‘greatest footballer’ (Dimitar Berbatov).
But not many will argue when I say I was lucky to be alive to see the glory days of Lester Piggott and Muhammad Ali.
In these difficult times let’s remember them for their inspiration and courage, and enjoy this race named after the Long Fella, as if it were a Derby.
Andrew Balding has won it three times in the last five years and he makes us sit up and take note of Kadovar by booking ‘the champ,’ William Buick.
Kadovar was a runaway winner on the course over a mile plus in April but hard to feel confident because his form is all on soft or slow ground, and he was a drifter this morning, out to 18.5 on BETDAQ.
However, his sire, Dark Angel, loved to hear her feet rattle, and the dam, Bulrushes, has produced winners on good and firm as well as on the soft.
The grey Fox Journey (BETDAQ 6.4) is up in the weights after his Newmarket win but a likely improver and claimed off.
SHEER THOROUGHBRED CLASS
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (Northern Dancer Handicap) Still talking history, if you explore the story of Northern Dancer, and the modern thoroughbred, it will help you appreciate the miracle of the racehorse and what we all ask of it every day.
Caius Chorister won four in a row last year, including two on firm at Epsom in class 5 and 6, so her first run back, a narrow class-2 second on the course in April – over shorter, on soft – suggested improvement. Scampi, who was fifth, has won since.
Jungle Cove steps up in trip at the age of six, and more likely winners are four-year-olds Sea King (first-time cheekpieces) and Sheer Rocks, getting 13lb from Caius Chorister.
BETDAQ value 3.9 Caius Chorister, 9.5 Sheer Rocks
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Epsom (win 50 bulls-eye bet)
BET 4pts win SPREWELL
FORTUNE COOKIES
BET 20pts win AUGUSTE RODIN
BET 20pts win PASSENGER
2.45 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.25pts win RUSSET GOLD
BET 5pts win MISS BRAZEN
BET 1pt win ( stakes saver) TALLULAH MYLA
3.20 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.75pts win VINTAGE CLARETS
BET 3pts win MOUNTAIN PEAK
3.55 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3pts win KADOVAR
BET 2pts to win 10 FOX JOURNEY
4.30 Epsom (win 12)
BET 4pts win CAIUS CHORISTER
BET 1.5pts win SHEER ROCKS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
