SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Sunday’s top matches as the La Liga and Serie A seasons draw to a close all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VILLAREAL V ATLETICO MADRID
5.30pm It’s the final day of the European season on Sunday and we have action from La Liga and Serie A on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. I have to say it’s been a wonderful season, and we have some brilliant moments. It is a shame we are finishing without a major title race, but we had enough final day drama in the Bundesliga last weekend! We kick off the action in La Liga with Villarreal hosting Atletico Madrid. Usually we see all the final day La Liga fixtures kick off at the same time, but they have taken the same approach as Serie A in breaking up fixtures to match what sides are playing for. I feel it’s a great idea, and allows us to focus on different battles whether it’s for a European spot or relegation. For these two sides, they already have their European spots locked in. Atletico Madrid have produced a very strong mid-to-late season run and have a chance of finishing second if Real Madrid fail to win but they have Champions League football next season whatever happens, while Villarreal are locked into fifth spot and the Europa League. They can’t catch Real Sociedad and Real Betis can’t catch them. What an achievement for Real Sociedad to get Champions League football though, especially as the top four in Spain looked to be on lock – Sevilla opened the door this season!
We should have an entertaining game here. Both sides have no reason to sit back anyway without much on the line. We have a very open betting heat too – Atletico Madrid come into the game as the favourites at 2.56 with Villarreal 2.82 and the draw is 3.8. I have to say I was shocked when Unai Emery left Villarreal for Aston Villa this season, but he did manage to get Aston Villa into Europe which was a wonderful performance – they were closer to being in a relegation battle when he took over! Villarreal have come forward very well from that, and realistically a Europa League spot was their best chance this season which they got. They have been excellent going forward this season with an average xG of 1.8, but they have been getting lucky at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.5 but their actual goals conceded is an average of only 1.0 – there’s work to do there next season. Atletico have been marginally better up front with an average xG of 1.9 and have conceded less chances at an average of 1.3. I feel we’ll see an open and entertaining game here with plenty of chances – this game screams goals to me with the players enjoying themselves and Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.63.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/VllAtl
REAL VALLADOLID V GETAFE
8pm We stay in La Liga next as we go to the relegation battle. We’re going to have a lot of drama this evening as there’s six teams all within two points of each other. Only one of them will go down as Elche and Espanyol cannot get out of the relegation zone. The game to focus on is clearly Real Valladolid against Getafe as Real Valladolid are the team under the most intense pressure as they sit in the bottom three – Getafe are only two points ahead of them though so despite sitting in 14th they could actually go down if other results go against them. Cadiz, Valencia, Almeria and Celta Vigo are the other sides all in danger, and we should have an exciting night! Despite being the side actually sitting in the relegation zone, Real Valladolid come into the final day trading as the shortest price to win from the sides in trouble. Valencia are away to Real Betis which is a tough fixture, then Celta Vigo play Barcelona but they do have home advantage. Cadiz are away to Elche and Almeria away to Espanyol which on paper are easier fixtures with those sides already going down. You’d have to say Real Valladolid have the “best” fixture but they have to win. Cadiz, although starting the day in 13th and within two points, realistically can’t go down because Getafe will have lost if Real Valladolid win.
There’s bound to be drama though, and plenty of sides swapping places as the goals go in! Real Valladolid are currently trading 2.26 with Getafe 3.6 and the draw is 3.35. Getafe have come good at the right time under intense pressure – they have won their last two games, and drew the one before that – it looked like they were odds on to go down to be honest! Away from home they sit in the bottom six on the away table, but they haven’t been exceptionally bad. Valladolid have relied on home advantage, and they’ve recorded massive results recently too. They beat Barcelona 3-1 in their last home game, and then picked up a point away to Almeria last weekend. Valladolid have been shocking at the back this season, their average xG conceded is as high as 2.1 and although Getafe aren’t far away from them in the table, they have been much better at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.4 which isn’t too bad. I feel the 2.26 is woefully short on Valladolid here, and I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. I’m very happy with the Valladolid lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Real Valladolid to beat Getafe at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValGtf
UDINESE V JUVENTUS
8pm We move over to Serie A to finish an intriguing Sunday as Udinese host Juventus. What a drama filled season it has been for Juventus! After an investigation into their transfer dealings they were deducted 15 points earlier in the season. They went from second to mid-table, then that was overturned and they went back into second/third (certain of a top four spot anyway) and now in recent weeks they have been handed a ten point deduction. Despite the ten point deduction, if they had won their last two games against Empoli and AC Milan they would actually be sitting in fourth. They would have 65 points and AC Milan would have three less than they do now at 64. Alas, the loss against Sevilla in the Europa League Semi-Final seemed to have sucked the win out of their sails this season and they have finished poorly. They conceded an xG of 3.39 against Empoli and were edged out by AC Milan. As it stands though they can still get Europa League football as they are only two points behind Atalanta in fifth and one behind Roma in sixth. Europa League football would be a cracking result considering they were slapped with a ten point deduction all things considered, and it wouldn’t be a disaster in terms of keeping players or players not wanting to come to Juventus. It would be very much a case of taking it on the chin and moving on.
So, Juventus need a win here. They come into the game as the favourites, they are currently trading 2.0 at the time of writing with Udinese 4.2 and the draw is 3.6. The bad news for Juventus fans is that Atalanta and Roma are at home here too – Atalanta are 1.72 to beat Monza and Roma are 2.08 to beat Spezia. Roma had to play a Europa League Final on Wednesday and Spezia are fighting to stay up, plus the fact Roma have finished the domestic season very poorly so that is Juve’s best chance. Another worry is the fact that Juventus haven’t been superb away from home this season. They have been much better at home – they actually had the same amount of home points heading into this weekend as Napoli, and where they have fallen down is away from home. Udinese don’t come into this game in winning form either however; and I feel the best option is to stay away from the match odds market. I like Under 2.5 goals here at 1.88. Udinese have been keeping games as tight as possible this season, and Juventus have been grinding out results away rather than blowing sides away.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiJuv
