DIAMOND DAY FOR DAQMAN PROFITS: Despite finding the racing negative yesterday, Daqman had a positive outcome with three winners, producing a handsome profit of more than 20 points.
Wednesday: profit on the day 20.40
☑️ WON 10-3 MARINARA
☑️ WON 2-1 DIAMOND VEGA
☑️ WON 2-5 CAMPAIGN TRAIL (doubles)
DON’T RUN TO BET IN SUPER SPRINT: Wait for it! You can’t bet in Saturday’s Super Sprint until you know the draw, says Daqman. You also need to compare the ratings with the sales price! As his preview says, it’s a tricky mix of bias.
WHY SPRINT IS A RACE OF BIAS
⭕ 3.35 Newbury, Saturday (Super Sprint) We’ll look at some form and ratings but be warned that there has been no winner from a single-figure stall in the decade. Not a one.
Winners by draw (10 seasons) have been: 10, 14, 15, 13, 13, 19, 25, 16, 15 and 21 last year.
It’s longish-odds against even getting in the frame from a single-number stall: some 25 of the 30 placed in the decade were double-figure drawn.
Further Lays Logic against the bookmakers’ 7-4 about the favourite Relief Rally landing the £122k first prize is his weight: only three winners in the decade carried 9st or more.
The winningmost weight area has been 8st 4lb to 8st 10lb, with six strikes. That favours Heed The Call, Crooked Crown, Fengari, Jolly Sailor and Juniper Berries.
But – warning number 2 – the burden carried by each runner is determined by its sale price, with one pound deducted for each £5,000 below the maximum value.
So you have the anomaly of the ratings bearing little weight on the sales-determining handicap mark! Forgive the pun and create your own handicap from the official ratings, making the top spot 9st.
If Relief Rally (off 106) has 9-0, Bobsleigh should get 8-10, Son Of Corballis 8-7, Juniper Berries 8-1, Supersonic Man 8-1, La Guarida 7-11, The Camden Colt 7-11, World Of Darcy 7-10.
Now check the card and it becomes clear why the Queen Mary runner-up, Relief Rally, is the bookmakers’ favourite over Coventry Stakes sixth Bobsleigh.
Juniper Berries, four-lengths fourth in the Queen Mary, is badly in by about 5lb, and the rest even worse – much, much worse in some cases – with connections praying for a high-numbered stall to correct the bias or swing it their way!
KEEP AN EYE ON THE CHARLTONS
⭕ 3.00 Chepstow, today (1m handicap) Harry and Roger Charlton are currently on three winners out of five, with 14 of their last 16 starters finishing in the first four.
Also three out of five (60%) is the Charltons’ record raiding Chepstow from their Beckhampton base.
Their Juddmonte-owned Expert Eye filly, Eyeshadow, runs here instead of at Haydock on Saturday; Richard Kingscote booked: 2.44 on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
She has shown obvious potential under Kingscote, nearest finish at Thirsk the last day behind a ratings one-two of 85-79, yet she’s given 67 for this handicap debut, getting weight all round, with the exception of the claimed-off Azahara Palace.
Hughie Morrison won a Group 3 in the mud at Vichy yesterday and Azahara Palace is already a CD winner, but on firm ground, which she will not get today. The rest of the field looks well exposed.
SECRET PLOT BY THE LOCAL YARD
⭕ 7.00 Epsom (7f handicap) Local-trainer Jim Boyle goes for a hat-trick and his fourth winner in this race in seven years.
He’s won it with a three-year-old and two four-year-olds, set from 8st 13lb to 9st 12lb.
The four-year-old Secret Strength carries 9st 5lb, claiming 5lb allowed for Luke Catton, who won on the gelding at Newbury the last day (class 5) after prepping him at Epsom in a class 2 (fourth; closed late).
This is a class 4, which reads like a nice placing at a nice price (10.0 offers on Betdaq Betting Exchange this morning).
Alazwar, another well drawn, won at this level last year and looked back to form recently with first-time blinkers replacing cheekpieces but the aids are all left off today, as he drops back from a mile.
Alazwar was sent to the sales recently by Hambleton Racing but trainer Archie Watson bought her in for his wife. I’m inclined to wait for his next mile race with headgear back on.
Metahorse won twice at this time of year in 2022 and went close at Chester in June for new trainer Daryll Holland in first-time cheekpieces, which remain on today.
It’s more than two years since Ernie’s Valentine scored on turf. Little Boy Blue has been placed three times at Epsom without winning. G’Daay was runner-up here two weeks back, hanging under pressure.
Cobalt Blue was placed in a maiden here last August. Seductive Power has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
SPRITZIN FOR STALL-1 STRIKE
⭕ 8.40 Epsom (1m 4f handicap) Spritzin carried my money, trying to make all at the stayers’ track, Pontefract, nine days ago, but was just caught, and beaten a neck.
The one stall at Epsom gives him a cracking chance of completing the job this time, and landing a hat-trick in this for three-year-olds. He is the only second-season animal in it today. BETDAQ 3.1.
Jim Boyle has a ‘hidden horse’ in Angels Roc (BETDAQ 17.5); has never reached the frame in races beyond 1m 2f but the six-year-old’s course win here last August saw him race in the rear until he mounted a strong challenge up the hill. Spritzin’s pace could help set up his chance.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.00 Chepstow (win 12, nap)
BET 8pts win EYESHADOW
7.00 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 6pts win and 2pts place SECRET STRENGTH
8.40 Epsom (win 10, e.w. win 20 total)
BET 5pts win SPRITZIN
BET 1pt win and place ANGELS ROC
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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