KING GEORGE IS A ‘MUST WIN’ TODAY: Daqman prepared you for a magnificent King George with his preview on Wednesday but, in the final verdict, says England or Ireland need to play an ace in the race today or hand this year’s Arc to the French. He has five bets between Ascot and York which are staked to win 50 points.
Top tipping update
VALUE CHALLENGE: Daqman 40, Pricewise 18
FORTUNE COOKIES: 16 Flat winners
DAQMAN NAPS: 5 out of 8 (63 for the year)
STEEL YOURSELF FOR A CLASSIC
⭕ 3.40 Ascot (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes) For the STATS, FORM and RATINGS, see Wednesday’s Daqman preview.
WHAT do we really know about the best King George this century? Well, Hamish is out so it’s not expected to ride soft; Bolshoi Ballet is in, so the pace will take no prisoners.
Pyledriver can upset the best when the ground is firm but, though he finished in front of Hukum in the Sheema Classic, he was stopped by that one at Epsom; this strong field will not allow them to play acey-deucy in a private war.
The ratings have six horses on 120-124 but one is a filly, Emily Upjohn, who gets a 3lb allowance the older colts wish they had, and there are two three-year-olds in receipt of 11lb.
That Emily Upjohn gives 8lb to a dual Derby winner, Auguste Rodin, and his near Epsom challenger, King Of Steel, seals her fate.
The one we’ve left out is Luxembourg, who relies on championship form over shorter, but was unlucky in running on deep ground in last year’s Arc and is very lightly raced.
After only four runs, the one most likely to improve is King Of Steel, who got within half a length of Auguste Rodin in the Epsom Derby
Both have won since against weaker opposition, one in the Irish Derby, one in the ‘Ascot Derby’; it would be condemnation of this year’s English and Irish Classic generation to dismiss them both at these weights, and would hand the 2023 Arc to the French.
Feed The Flame beat Adelaide River a length in the Grand Prix de Paris, after Adelaide River finished a length and a half behind Auguste Rodin in the Irish Derby.
So we can’t have a ground-out finish to the King George today; we need Auguste Rodin or King Of Steel to give us some ace impact, or it’s au revoir to Longchamp.
Betdaq Betting Exchange: 1 Auguste Rodin (at 3.55), 2 King Of Steel (5.8), 3 Luxembourg (16.5).
IRELAND HAS THE BELLE BET..
⭕ 2.25 Ascot (Valiant Stakes, 1m, Group 3 Fillies and Mares) Favourites have been turned over seven years running, as ages three and four do battle.
It’s 6-4 to the three-year-olds in the decade, joined this year by Irish winners last time out, Johnny Murtagh’s Cadeau Belle and Joseph O’Brien’s Thornbrook. Both have scored with cut in the ground.
Thornbrook dropped out of Group company to win a Listed in her own age group, whereas Cadeau Belle steps up from Listed level today after beating older animals at Navan.
Group-3 winner and Group-2 placed Random Harvest will appreciate the ease in the ground, as will Roman Mist, a Listed winner already.
BETDAQ nap value: 3.7 Cadeau Belle
.. AND ITALIAN IS A LUCKY MAN
⭕ 2.40 York (Dash, 6f): Andrea Atzeni’s last ride for Richard Spencer was a winner, and it’s on the cards that Lucky Man will be the Italian’s last ride in England.
Spencer sends Lucky Man to York today for the Dash, in which he was beaten only a neck last year as a three-year-old.
Atzeni takes over today and Spencer hopes that, though Atzeni is moving to Hong Kong – he says ‘after the Ebor’ – he might be available for two more York sprints on Lucky Man in September and early October, including the big-money Coral Sprint in which the horse was beaten only two lengths last year off 96, a big rating for a three-year-old.
Compare with Group-3 winner, Barefoot Angel at the age of three; he has 97 today and is a danger to all after a wind op and a long holiday.
Yorkshire trainers have won the Dash seven years running and Spencer is the only southern raider this afternoon.
Now compare both with the favourite for this all week, Aberama Gold, who has won only at class-4 level since 2020.
His saving grace is that he is a CD winner, which is a big advantage at York; others with the CD tag are the old campaigner Summerghand (it’s his 81st race today) but he’s nine now; International Girl and The Green Man.
The last pair have both beaten Good Earth, so you can draw a form line between them from that; but again we’re talking class 4.
It’s a long time since Zarzyni was fourth in the Palace House Stakes but he’s slid down the ratings since that day from 104 to 92, and Tom Marquand has been booked for this afternoon.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Lucky Man, 13.5 Barefoot Angel, 19 Zarzyni
SOMETHING SPECIALE AT 33.0
3.00 Ascot (International Handicap 7f): STATS: Previous winning stalls, 11, 12, 14 (twice) and 15, seems to recommend those down the middle, though high and low on the rails have won from 2, 4, 21 and 29. But no three-year-olds and only two aged more than five have won in the decade.
A CD winner is at an advantage, as are those who ran well in the big-field Royal Ascot handicaps.
Fools Rush In (stall 19) has dropped 10lb but his best form is on the roundabout at Chester. Lir Speciale (1) was progressive until having a poor passage at Royal Ascot.
Ascot points strongly to Northern Express (20), who ploughed a lone furrow down the far side out of stall 12 when 24, 23, 21 and 22 pinched the centre and finished 1, 2, 4, 5.
But that makes today a big day for claimer Kaiya Fraser. His mount, Vafortino (out of 12), is 8lb better for a short-head defeat by Northern express at York two weeks back
BETDAQ value 9.7 Vafortino, 33 Lir Speciale
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Ascot (win 10)
BET 2pts win SYMBOLOGY
2.05 York (win 20)
BET 3pts win SPEEDACUS
2.25 Ascot (win-20 nap)
BET 7.5pts win CADEAU BELLE
2.40 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win LUCKY MAN
BET 4pts win BAREFOOT ANGEL
BET 2.75pts win ZARZYNI
3.0 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.75pts win VAFORTINO
BET 1.5pts win and place LIR SPECIALE
3.40 Ascot
FORTUNE COOKIES
AUGUSTE RODIN
EMILY UPJOHN
(saver 8pts win KING OF STEEL)
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