ROYAL ASCOT: GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: Daqman has his first bet at Royal Ascot. He opposes an odds-on shot at Kempton Park tonight. And he naps a horse trading at 9.6 this morning.
Here’s your golden opportunity at Royal Ascot. Andre Fabre can take Wednesday’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes with Golden Lilac, reportedly ‘the best filly I have trained.’
While the bookies dither about the race, and before they cramp Golden Lilac when she is confirmed a supplemented runner, I took the 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
6.10 Kempton (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Apprentice Handicap) There’s some irony in Willie Twiston-Davies riding Breakheart: the boy star of the Aintree Fox Hunters’ Chase on Baby Run then missed out much of 2011 with a broken leg and, later in the year, a broken collarbone.
This year he has won two races over jumps and two on the Flat, with big brother Sam taking most of the stable rides for his father, Nigel, and he’s set a tough task here with Breakheart’s having finished 15th in his last two races, of 15 at Newmarket and of 16 at Sandown, beaten a total of 78 lengths.
Contrast these fortunes with those of dual AW winner Just Five and his rider, Raul Da Silva, who has scored 28 times in 2012, more than twice the tally of his nearest rival in this race, George Downing (11 winners), who’s on Laughing Jack.
But George comes out a street in front on wins-to-rides, with a stunning 21%, one of only two regular jockeys, apprenticed or professional, riding today with such a high strike rate.
Leonna Mayor (9 winners), Jack Duern (7) and Nicole Nordblad (7) follow Da Silva And Downing in terms of races won. The Michael Scudamore entire, Addikt, has already won one of these Betdaq Multiples races this season but James Rogers takes over today from the then winning rider, none other than Willie Twiston-Davies.
Scu Senior also saddles the morning favourite, Guest Book, dropped 10lb since February, but without a win since breaking his maiden in 2009 and ridden by Jamie Jones, back from a long absence and himself without a win since 2009.
Kempton specialists Qeethaara (four wins here) and May’s Boy (three) are back on their favourite stamping ground after modest efforts on turf; both are drawn out wide but Qeethaara won over CD in February from 13 and is in 14 today; May’s Boy won out of 11 in April and is now in 12.
The high stalls are clearly going to have a say and the one I like for a pound, out of 11, is Catchanova (Amy Scott), also three times a Kempton winner, one of them in class 4, a grade up on this field, and he ran well enough in that class on turf recently: 8.8 on BETDAQ as I write.
This is Catchanova’s first run at Kempton since failing to give May’s Boy 15lb in April; they now meet at level weights.
6.40 Kempton (Back Or Lay betdaq.com Maiden Stakes) There’s an odds-on shot here, Janoub Nibras, and the question posed by the race head is: back or lay?
The horse that won his race at Ascot when he was third has scored again since but 16 of the 17 behind him in his two races, that one at Ascot and next time at Nottingham, are all losers.
There are those with an ache to lay who will oppose Black Caviar or Frankel – or both – knowing they will lose only what a single well-chosen lay can earn. How much less risk for the layer putting the Bismarck on Janoub Nibras, who is a Frankel price as I write.
I am hovering in the green now to lay Janoub Nibras at 1.47. At that price, I can buy him back later on if he eases to a respectable offer; otherwise I shall be looking for a steamer from among the debutants.
The ‘most likely to’ label goes on the Dunlop brothers pair, Bay Laurel (18.0 on BETDAQ this morning) for Harry and Quiet Prayer for Ed (11.0); Ed Dunlop’s last two-year-old winner scored first time out at Yarmouth; Harry’s first juvenile runner of the season scored at 40-1. In for a penny, in for a double whammy!
7.10 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) Boudoir had winners behind him when winning both here at Kempton and at Lingfield; so did Dressed In Lace when she scored over CD in March. And the market reckons they will be one-two today.
But I fancy West Leake Hare at offers of 9.6 on BETDAQ: hampered on his run back, the Choisir colt has been dropped down the grades (from class 2 and 4 in the autumn of 2011) and is also down a few pounds, courtesy of the handicapper.
7.40 Kempton (Betdaq Casino Games Handicap) Mickael Barzalona, who rides Bay Laurel for me at 6.40, has his Godolphin mount in this: Tamarrud has obviously been difficult to train, with just the one run on his CV.
The market is rarely helpful with Godolphin, who also have Al Salam in the race. But there is a significant betting move this morning; that is for Willie Wag Tail, usurping the favourite’s spot.
Labelled ‘a fine, big sort’ by Raceform on his solid reappearance at Sandown, he should come on well for that, with most to fear from Hector’s Chance, whose 9lb rise looks nominal after his five-lengths romp on today’s track at the end of May.
Roger Charlton is clearly hoping for more from the Queen’s Moidore, never travelling on his return and best when sent to the front, which won’t be an easy task here, even if he bounces back
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.5pts win CATCHANOVA (6.10 Kempton)
LAY 10pts JANOUB NIBRAS at 1.47 and BET 2pts win QUIET PRAYER and 1.1pts win BAY LAUREL (6.40 Kempton)
BET 2.3pts win (nap) WEST LEAKE HARE (7.10 Kempton)
BET 4.3pts win WILLIE WAG TAIL and 3.7pts win HECTOR’S CHANCE (7.40 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4.2pts win GOLDEN LILAC (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Royal Ascot)
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