BETDAQ OFFERS ARE IN YOUR FAVOUR: After four days of winning with Fortune Cookies (3), naps (2) and value odds (7-2, 5-1 and 9-1), Daqman had to suffer the inevitable down day on Thursday with Alsakib (3rd 12-1 from 15.5), Toca Madera (3rd 15-2 from 16.0) and, hardest pill of all, the defeat of Blue Rose Cen, trapped on the rail, beaten little more than a length. ‘BETDAQ did the value job; the horses didn’t quite,’ says Daqman.
📈 Percentages in your favour today: 107, 103, 108, 105, 104, 108, 109 BETDAQ total offers race by race this morning. Bookies’ SP mark-up yesterday 126, 114, 113, 109, 121, 131, 120, 121.
GOLDEN MILE AND GOLDEN PRICES: Goodwood features the Goodwood handicap, the Golden Mile and the King George sprint, with Daqman taking offers of 9.7, 11.5, 15.0, 16.5 and 19.0.
LAW IS DUE A CHANGE OF LUCK
⭕ 1.50 Goodwood Handicap (2m 4f) Key races for this are the Ascot Stakes (Calling The Wind, Tritonic and Law Of The Sea second, third and fourth) and the Queen Alexandra Stakes (The Grand Visir second and Typewriter fourth).
But the stats say that 9st 1lb is the maximum weight carried by winners in the decade and that the conditions will also affect the result; in fact, you can’t carry a big weight on deep ground in a race like this.
I’ll draw the line at 9st 2lb, which allows in the claimed-off Typewriter (has won on soft) and Law Of The Sea, but eliminates the others from those key races.
Law Of The Sea was denied a clear run when fourth in the Chester Cup on soft and was drawn impossibly wide in the Ascot Stakes, before being out of luck yet again – struck into – in the Northumberland Plate.
Aggagio has Goodwood form of 1112120 and loves it soft; Tronador has swerved Galway for this; and Cesarewitch second Vino Victrix is a good-ground stayer with the Goodwood Cup winning trainer and jockey, Morrison and Marquand.
BETDAQ value 9.7 Law Of The Sea and Tronador, 11.5 Vino Victrix, 14 Aggagio
NOSTRUM CAN STRIDE OUT IN MUD
⭕ 2.25 Goodwood (1m Group 3) FORTUNE COOKIE Nostrum is a lightly raced winner (three wins from four starts), who could get further; maybe the Irish Champion Stakes late next month.
First we have to find out today whether he can cope with plenty of cut in the ground. The signs are good: his sire, Kingman, won the Curragh Guineas on heavy and the dam also won the soft.
Dewhurst third to Guineas winner Chaldean, Nostrum’s first run of the season had to wait until three weeks back when he comfortably took a Listed at Newmarket.
Britannia Handicap winner Docklands and Listed-level Bold Discovery could get involved but surely the danger on this ground must be Epictetus.
Epictetus was runner-up to Auguste Rodin in the Doncaster Futurity (heavy) as a juvenile and won the Blue Riband DerbyTrial (soft) at Epsom in April. This is the first time he’s had his ground since then, and is a good price to cover our stake on Nostrum.
PEROTTO DELIGHT RELIES ON RYAN
⭕ 3.00 Goodwood (Golden Mile handicap) Roger Varian, whose Al Husn cruised clear of Nashwa and Blue Rose Cen in the Nassau yesterday, saddles
FORTUNE COOKIE Perotto, ‘delighted’ with his handicap mark, and has booked Ryan Moore.
The Britannia winner of 2021 was dropped a stone from his revised mark of last June so ran at Royal Ascot this year off 96. Though he came back to form at Sandown the last day in first-time hood (Dutch Decoy third, Revich fourth), he has only 2lb more.
The drawback for Moore is stall 17, as he will recall from winning this race three times in a row (2016-17-18) from the low draw in gates 1, 3, 3.
Lattam, racing out of 3 today, was runner-up in the Newbury Spring Cup (soft), winning either side of that in the Irish Lincolnshire (heavy) and the Seaton Delaval at Newcastle.
Tacarib Bay (out of 4 today) won over 6f and 7f on soft last season, but was held when third over a mile in a big-field Newmarket handicap.
He was only sixth in the 7f International at Ascot six days ago but raced on the far side, first in his group, when the first five all came down the near side.
Revich (drawn 1 today) was a late finisher, out of gate 15, when third off a similar mark last year; winner and second, Orbaan and Blue For You, are now high in the handicap.
But Rhoscolyn (7th out of 18) has dropped 10lb below his mark last year and the year before (when second out of stall 8).
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.4 Lattam, 15 Rhoscolyn, 16.5 Perotto, 19 Revich
AMAZING 14.5 ABOUT AN IMPROVER
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood (King George Stakes, 5f Group 2) Charles Hills, who has won this five times in six years with Battaash and Khaadem, has Equality and Equilateral both needing a drying day.
It’s an obvious open door for Highfield Princess, who blossomed when dropped to sprints last summer and into the autumn, including on soft.
But, after three defeats and three excuses this term, the battling Princess looks vulnerable on this sharp course to an improver.
Nymphadora is a little bundle of dynamite, as befits a daughter of No Nay Never, and loves it soft in the manner of her dam, Pivotal. An amazing offer for win-and-place players at 14.5.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Goodwood (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.75pts win LAW OF THE SEA
BET 5.75pts win TRONADOR
BET 5pts win VINO VICTRIX
2.25 Goodwood
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 20pts win NOSTRUM
3.00 Goodwood
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts PEROTTO
WIN-50 bull’s-eye bets
BET 3.25pts win RHOSCOLYN
BET 2.75pts win REVICH
BET (to win 30) 5.5pts win LATTAM
3.35 Goodwood (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3.7pts win and place NYMPHADORA
BET 10pts win (stakes saver) HIGHFIELD PRINCESS
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