DAQMAN ANTE-POST BET TO WIN 100: It’s the silly season in horse racing, so a time to re-assess for the future, starting close at hand with an ante-post bet on the Arc de Triomphe today (to win 100 points) and then looking long range at which two-year-olds could make it big next year. Watch this space, as ever.
SECOND CHANCES: After two seconds (4/1 and 5/2) both beaten 1/2 length, Daqman’s hopes were pinned on Metric last night. After getting hyper upset in the stalls and backing out a couple of times she was somehow allowed to run. It’s always easier with hindsight but I am sure at that precise moment most punters would quite happily accept and expect her to be withdrawn. I certainly did.
DAQMAN’S 15.0 BETDAQ ARC BID
FORTUNE COOKIES: A full final list of Daqman’s Fortune Cookies for the remainder of the Flat season will be published next Tuesday but a tradition is maintained today.
Daqman recommends an annual flutter on the Arc de Triomphe at BETDAQ Sportsbook odds well in advance of the race at Longchamp the first Sunday in October. It won him the race at 8.0 in 2022.
Last year: ALPINISTA at 8.0 on BETDAQ: WON 33-10
This year: BLUE ROSE CEN (to win 100) currently 15.0 on BETDAQ.
Blue Rose Cen, who has scored twice for Fortune Cookies in the French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks, was boxed in at Goodwood for the Nassau Stakes under jockey Aurelien Lemaitre, finishing only fourth.
Trainer Christophe Head has announced that Blue Rose Cen will run next in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sunday week, September 10, her first attempt at 1m 4f, as a trial for the Arc.
‘There’s no doubt we haven’t got to the bottom of her yet,’ says Head, ‘and she would be supplemented for the Arc if she performs well in the Vermeille. She is a crazy price if this plan works out.’
Blue Rose Cen’s style suggests she can cope with a range of distances. In the Nassau, she went to sleep at the back, a really exaggerated waiting game, intending a late swoop which didn’t pay off on a track unfamiliar to jockey Lemaitre, who is currently fifth in the French-riders’ table with 84 winners.
Christopher Head is fourth in the trainers’ table but well clear on wins-to-horses: 23 from 28 which have run a select 80 races and earned €2.2m .
Daqman, currently leading Pricewise 44-22, will include the Pricewise Arc ante-post bets in their challenge; Simca Mille (21.0) and Emiy Upjohn (17.0). Extract from last year’s Daqman:
Daqman August 23, 2022.
8.0 ALPINISTA COULD BE ARC VALUE: The top three in the ratings for the Arc De Triomphe are open to offers on BETDAQ but none are certain runners, making them potentially the ‘lost raiders of the Arc’. That suggests there could be big value among the rest; maybe the Yorkshire Oaks mare, Alpinista, who is currently 8.0.
KIND OF A FEELING
⭕ 3.30 Musselburgh Despite the small field (even smaller with the defection of Two Auld Pals) it looks really competitive with last time out winners Simple Star, Baez and Yorkindness doing battle – the last two bidding for hat-tricks.
Baez for Jim Goldie heads the Betdaq Betting Exchange market but her career high mark of 69 might take some overcoming. She won a similar class 4 at York last time out off 63 but only had a neck to spare – although in mitigation the Sir Mark Prescott trained runner-up did win by 27 lengths at Ffos Las next time out. Would love to have been a fly on the wall there on the subsequent conversation between trainer and jockey after a 27 length handicap win!
Simple Star also arrives in good form but has been doing most of his winning around the 1m 4f level so this represents a significant hike up in trip. He’s run well over jumps without winning but this is uncharted waters on the flat.
I like Yorkindness. There are no stamina doubts – she has become a Pontefract expert this season with three times over their demanding 2m 1f circuit.
She also ran well ran well here in July when fourth and has every chance of turning around form that day with Baez who was runner-up on now 7lb better terms.
CALVERT THE CALL
⭕ 6.00 Kempton The formline that’s hard to ignore here is the one from Windsor 17 days ago when Calvert and Alnoory finished third and fourth.
Alnoory was attempting to defy a penalty after her narrow Epsom success but struggled and it was the 40/1 chance Calvert who caught the eye in third shaping as if the first run will have done him the world of good.
Rich Harry ran well enough at Ascot over six furlongs and should be suited by the step up in distance.
FANSHAWE FAN
⭕ 8.00 Kempton I didn’t think there was as much between Mildyjama and Compliant on the form books as the market might suggest.
Mildyjama looks plenty short enough given she’s up 4lb for her win over a slightly shorter trip here last time out.
The handicapper knows where he is with Compliant who continues to do well but she’s only 2lb higher from her course win in February and is likely to do better over tonight’s longer trip.
⭕ 8.30 Kempton James Fanshawe (trainer of Compliant) also has sound chances in the next with Maso Bastie who is fitted with headgear for the first time.
You can always forgive a horse one bad run – and especially when it comes at idiosyncratic Goodwood.
He ran no sort of race in a class 3 there last time out but a drop in grade and a return to Kempton where he shaped well on debut are both positive factors. The handicapper provides the cherry on top of the cake with a 2lb drop in weight.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
3.30 Musselburgh (win 10, nap)
BET 2.2pts win YORKINDNESS
6.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 3.8pts win CALVERT
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.7pts win COMPLIANT
8.30 Kempton
BET 2pts win MASO BASTIE
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