SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BOLOGNA v NAPOLI and ATLETICO MADRID v REAL MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOLOGNA V NAPOLI
5pm We have a fantastic Sunday in Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have two cracking fixtures from Serie A and La Liga, with the Madrid Derby undoubtedly the highlight. Before we get to that fixture though we can warm up in Italy with the Serie A Champions Napoli in action as they travel to take on Bologna. I said at the beginning of the season that it was always going to be interesting to see if Napoli kept their superb level of football after winning the title, they waited for so long, the celebrations went on for months and it could have been easy to lose the fire in the belly as they say. They have started this season a little sluggish too – after four games they are already five points behind Inter Milan. Last season was already so different – Napoli built a lead with a long unbeaten/winning run and couldn’t be caught. This year they are going to have to battle to get back into the mix – five points is already a lot at this stage of the season. They started with two wins in games that you would expect them to win, but then lost 2-1 at home to Lazio and could only draw with Genoa.
It’s clear to see that they are still playing good football looking at their xG figures – their average xG created is 1.80 while they are only conceding an average of 0.80. They can say that they were unlucky against Lazio too – they created an xG of close to 2.0 and conceded under 1.0. Again, you just have to admire Lazio grinding out results. Napoli come into this game trading marginally odds against – they are 2.02 at the time of writing with Bologna 3.95 and the draw is 3.8. Bologna have started the season in decent form; they’ve only lost once which came on the opening weekend against AC Milan and they picked up a 1-1 draw away to Juventus too. They have been solid at the back, they’re average xG conceded is just 1.14 and they are creating more chances too at 1.44. I would expect Bologna to try and keep this game as tight as possible. I know Napoli haven’t exactly been firing, but their under-lining numbers are good so I don’t want to take them on. I expect a cagey game here, and Under 2.5 goals looks a nice option at 1.96.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BolNap
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL MADRID
8pm We move over to La Liga, and we finish the weekend in style with a huge game! Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the latest Madrid Derby, and this is the first acid test for Real this season. So far they have had a perfect record of five wins from five games – they have had tricky away fixtures like Athletic Bilbao and Celta Vigo; but all know Atletico are a different animal compared to those sides. Atletico have started the season on the backfoot, and they are already in a situation where they effectively need to win here to be considered in the title race. They have seven points from their five games after a loss last weekend away to Valencia and they were also held to a 0-0 draw away to Real Betis. They made the headlines in the Champions League midweek but for the wrong reasons – the Lazio goalkeeper equalised in injury time for them to draw 1-1. As you would expect, we have a very open betting heat. Real Madrid are the favourites at 2.66 with Atletico Madrid 2.94 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here, but we usually see plenty of drama between these two!
We tend to get a tight and cagey affair – only two of the last ten meetings have had Over 2.5 goals. Of all the meetings between the sides, only 46% have finished with Over 2.5 goals. We did have an amazing 7-3 win for Atletico in 2019 but that wasn’t normal! That market has Under 2.5 goals trading as the favourite at 1.85, and I have to say that is a tempting bet. I expected it to be trading a little shorter. I know Real have been excellent in front of goal this season, their average xG is a league high of 2.27 but as I said above, this is their biggest test to date. Atletico haven’t exactly been creating chances for fun; their average xG created is 1.42 and I would expect them to be set up to defend mainly here and hope to have success on the counter. Looking at the bare figures, only two bets interest me here – the Real win at 2.66 and Under 2.5 goals at 1.85. I am going to lean towards the Real win at 2.66 just because they have been playing much better football this season compared to Atletico, and they can grind out a win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Real Madrid to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRdr
