SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s five matches including a recommended BETDAQ bet – starting with the North London Derby between ARSENAL and SPURS!
ARSENAL V TOTTENHAM
2pm We have a blockbuster Super Sunday in the Premier League this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange ! Due to all the European commitments this week, we have five fixtures taking place. We kick of the day with a huge fixture too! Arsenal host Spurs in the latest North London Derby, and we always tend to have a cracking game between these two. Four of the last five meetings have had Over 2.5 goals, and the other game was a 2-0 win to Arsenal. Over the long term, 61% of the meetings between these two have had Over 2.5 goals. The market is definitely expecting goals here too; Both Teams To Score is trading 1.6 while Over 2.5 goals is a little lower 1.53. Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.72 at the time of writing with Spurs 4.9 and the draw is 4.5. There’s no getting away from the fact that Arsenal are a much better side than Spurs now – they recorded two wins in the meetings last season – but on the flip side Ange Postecoglou has definitely brought a feel good factor to Spurs. The results have come too; they have the same amount of points as Arsenal and they are playing great football as well.
Spurs were a laughing stock last season, and obviously that’s going to carry over a bit. They were slagged off on social media for celebrating the late win over Sheffield United, but at the same time all that stuff is good for team bonding etc. Coming into this weekend they have the second highest xG created figure in the Premier League; their average is 2.32 which is above Manchester City and Arsenal. Perhaps the key difference here is they are conceding more chances than Arsenal – Spurs’ average xG conceded is 1.34 while Arsenal have been rock solid at the back, they’re average xG conceded is only 0.77 which is the best record at the back in the Premier League so far this season. I fully accept that Arsenal are a better team than Spurs these days, but the 1.72 definitely feels a little short here in my opinion. With Spurs creating so many chances and playing with confidence I think we’ll have a closer game than the odds suggest here. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I’m happy with a lay of Arsenal at 1.72. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2-2 or 3-3 draw!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Tottenham at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsTtm
BRIGHTON V BOURNEMOUTH
2pm We have the joint-shortest price of the day next as Brighton host Bournemouth. We actually have three pretty short favourites on Sunday; Brighton here, Liverpool at home to West Ham and Newcastle away to Sheffield United. At the time of writing, Brighton are trading 1.43 which is the same price as Liverpool. Brighton have been playing some superb football this season, including a thrashing of Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend. Their week was definitely ruined by the result in the Europa League on Thursday though! They went into their first European game the heavy odds on favourites but ended up losing 3-2 to AEK Athens with home advantage. That was a very surprising result, especially considering they went into that game trading in the 1.2’s! Bournemouth will be hoping to add more misery here, but there is a huge gap between the sides here. I mentioned above that Spurs have the second best average xG created in the Premier League coming into this weekend, well first place belongs to Brighton. Their average xG is 2.38 which is seriously impressive, and they aren’t conceding many chances either – their average xG conceded is only 1.28.
Obviously it’s still very early days in the season, but if Brighton can keep up this level of play they might actually challenge for a Top Four spot. I can’t see Manchester United being good enough to finish in the Top Four this season, and I would suggest one of Newcastle, Spurs and Brighton will take up that fourth spot behind Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool who look nailed on for the top three to be honest. Bournemouth have been conceding an average xG of 1.91 which is a very high figure when you’re taking on a side like Brighton. Bournemouth have managed to grind out three draws but I can’t see them handling Brighton here. I would recommend the 1.43 for any Acca this weekend, but I feel they can cover the Handicap here. The 2.11 -1.5 goals looks cracking value with how many chances Bournemouth have been conceding this season.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriBth
CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA
2pm We have a fascinating fixture next as Chelsea host Aston Villa. What’s going on with Chelsea at the moment? Mauricio Pochettino must be wondering what he’s walked into. He had a disaster at PSG, and now he could actually be facing another disaster at Chelsea. Only five points from five games and they started this weekend sitting down in 14th. I’ve saw a lot of Manchester United fans say on Twitter say their “season is over already” this week; what about Chelsea?! They completely missed out on European football for this season and if they don’t turn things around quickly the same thing could happen this season. Plus we all know how trigger happy the owner is. Thomas Tuchel is seemingly loving life at Bayern Munich so things worked out OK for him, but Graham Potter must be kicking himself watching Brighton after he took the Chelsea job and didn’t last long. I think at this stage we have to start blaming the players and the squad – they just need a complete re-set but that takes massive amounts of time. You have to stick with the manager too.
Chelsea are trading marginally odds on at 1.92 and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on that price either side of the book. Aston Villa are trading 4.1 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Despite the poor results, Chelsea will say that they have played good football and that they have been unlucky. Looking at the xG figures it’s hard to argue that – their average created is 1.77 which is the fifth highest ahead of this weekend, and they are only conceding an average xG of 1.08 too. They just aren’t taking their chances though, and this has proven to be a problem time and time again for Chelsea. They are switching off at the back and conceding sloppy goals as well. Villa have made huge improvements under Unai Emery and I feel that they will make this game a lot closer than the odds suggest. I would have Chelsea odds against here, and I’m happy to lay them at 1.92. Villa actually managed two wins over Chelsea last season, including a 2-0 win here in April.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Aston Villa at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheAvl
LIVERPOOL V WEST HAM
2pm We finish the 2pm fixtures with Liverpool hosting West Ham. This should be a very entertaining affair. Both sides seem happy to attack, and they are conceding plenty of goals too. They both won 3-1 midweek in the Europa League, but again conceded against much weaker opposition. They both actually went 1-0 down too and had to battle back! Liverpool are the heavy odds on favourites; currently 1.43 at the time of writing with West Ham 7.4 and the draw is trading 5.8. West Ham have started the season with some cracking results including wins over Chelsea and Brighton. Their win over Brighton was definitely lucky looking at the xG figures, but you have to give them huge credit for grinding out a result. I would definitely worry about West Ham at the back here though; they are conceding an average xG of 2.17 this season which is actually the highest xG conceded in the Premier League this season. Bringing stats like that to Anfield is always going to be a massive worry!
I can see Liverpool winning easily here, but it won’t be without drama. There is always some sort of drama with Liverpool and Klopp these days. They still haven’t fixed their issues at the back, and no doubt West Ham will get plenty of chances here too. You can see just by looking at Liverpool’s xG figures what an open game they play – their average xG created is 1.65 and their average conceded is 1.52. I couldn’t put anyone off including Liverpool in their weekend Acca at the odds, but this game just screams goals to me. Over 2.5 goals is actually trading only two ticks above the Liverpool price, but I feel it’s a much better bet at 1.45. However, my best bet is Both Teams To Score at a very nice price of 1.68. Both teams are going to give away a lot of chances here and we should have an entertaining end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivWhu
SHEFFIELD UNITED V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday with Sheffield United hosting Newcastle. It’s not quite the best fixture to have in the prime Sunday TV slot, but it will be interesting to see if Sheffield United can get a result here. Newcastle are the heavy favourites – they are trading 1.5 with Sheffield United 7.4 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Newcastle got their first taste of Champions League football away to AC Milan midweek. They got a result too, they’ll definitely take a 0-0 away from home, and it looked like their fans had a superb time too looking at the viral videos on social media. Playing consistently twice a week with European commitments brings its own challenges, and it will be interesting to see do Newcastle hold their level of form this season. This is definitely a game that they should win, and it’s hard to see past them at 1.5 to be honest. Sheffield United haven’t looked up to Premier League standard in their five games so far, and their xG figures are pretty poor too. They are trading about the same price to get relegated as Newcastle are to win here! In fairness to Sheffield United, they have had a difficult fixture list; they’ve had to play Manchester City and Spurs already – plus they came very close to getting a result against Spurs.
Despite that though, losing to Nottingham Forest is a big red flag for relegation, and while they got a draw against Everton they were outplayed. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 2.14 which is the second highest in the Premier League – only 0.03 behind West Ham. Worse for Sheffield United is that they are only creating an average xG of 0.85. They don’t have much going for them at the moment. Newcastle haven’t been playing to the same standard as last season yet in my opinion, and they really should have closed out the Liverpool game when they were 1-0 up and Liverpool were down to ten men; however they are creating more than they are conceding and to be honest there’s just a big gulf in class between the sides here. It isn’t a bet to go crazy about, but I’d have Newcastle a little shorter than their current 1.5 and they are a nice value back in my opinion.