EUROPEAN FOOTBALL PREVIEW: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v WERDER BREMEN and OSASUNA v GRANADA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V WERDER BREMEN
7.30pm Domestic football returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Friday with our usual Friday night football action from the Bundesliga and La Liga! Although it was an enjoyable International break, it also felt like it came too soon; we didn’t really get a good run at the season. Somewhat annoyingly too, the new International break comes up very quickly again in November – then we have a long break to really get into the domestic season. Despite International football being more interesting with the Nations League these days, it’s definitely more boring and lacks the high drama of the major leagues outside the major tournaments. We are back anyway, and we kick things off in the Bundesliga as Dortmund host Werder Bremen. Dortmund have had a decent start to the season; they are unbeaten after seven games and sit two points behind league leaders Bayer Leverkusen. They will be pleased with that, but I would also suggest they should be disappointed to have dropped points against Heidenheim and Bochum – two sides that will be in the relegation battle this season. Annoyingly for Dortmund, they dropped points on the title run-in against sides in the relegation battle too!
Werder Bremen have been pretty average this season; they actually start this weekend sitting just two points outside the bottom three. That position is pretty much in line with their performance level too. They have the fifth worst xG created figure this season, and their conceding a reasonably high average xG of 1.65 this season. Dortmund will be expected to win this game with home advantage, and they come into the game as the red-hot odds on favourites. They are trading 1.38 at the time of writing with Werder Bremen 8.4 and the draw is 6.2. Dortmund are actually creating the exact same average xG figure going forward this season as Werder Bremen are conceding! I fancy Dortmund to bang in the goals here, and they can cover the handicap here -1.5 goals. The 1.9 looks cracking value looking at the stats – at home Dortmund have been creating more chances and given how poor Werder Bremen have been at the back, the 1.9 is worth a confident bet to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Dortmund -1.5 goals to beat Werder Bremen at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DrtWer
OSASUNA V GRANADA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Osasuna host Granada. Although this isn’t the most attractive fixture for the neutral this weekend, it should be a very interesting market. Neither side has started the season well, but Granada are definitely under more pressure as they sit in the relegation zone. They went down after finishing 18th in the 2021/22 season and have bounced back up; they don’t want to start yo-yoing up and down every season! Osasuna managed to finish in the European spots last season; a superb result for them, but they have started this season a little lacklustre and sit in the bottom half. They are your classic mid-table La Liga side in fairness so they probably won’t match seventh last season, but once you taste European football it’s hard to go back to just finishing mid-table every season. Osasuna come into the game as the odds on favourites with home advantage – they are trading 1.86 at the time of writing with Granada 4.8 and the draw is 3.8. Over the years we have usually had very even games between the sides and little goals. Only seven of the 20 meetings have finished with Over 2.5 goals. Three of the last four have had Under 2.5 goals too.
If you fancy Unders here, that’s trading 1.94 which is a very appealing price in my opinion. I definitely expected to see that trading shorter when I clicked into the market. Both sides have very low xG figures going forward – Osasuna are only creating an average xG of 1.11 while Granada have one a little higher at 1.25. Given they are both in the bottom half of the table, you’d expect them to be conceding more chances than they are creating. Obviously Granada have had problems at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.68 which is in the three worst conceded figures in La Liga at the moment. Away from home here that has to be a worry but given the fact Osasuna have struggled to create chances I’m happy to take a chance on Unders at 1.94. I would have this at least ten ticks shorter, and we’ll just keep stakes in check because Granada are away from home. At 1.94 though, it’s still worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/OsaGra
