SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action with recommended BETDAQ bets. The Premier League returns with a bang with LIVERPOOL v EVERTON at 12.30pm and CHELSEA v ARSENAL at 5.30pm.
LIVERPOOL V EVERTON
12.30pm The Premier League is back on Saturday, and we are back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a whopping eight fixtures to enjoy starting with the Merseyside Derby and ending with Manchester United in action at 8pm which isn’t a usual TV slot for a Saturday. No doubt Jurgen Klopp will be giving out his side play at 12-30pm again after an International break, but what a way to return! The International Break was good with some decent football, but you cannot beat the Premier League. The Merseyside Derby has always been a fiercely competitive fixture, but there has been a huge gulf in class between the sides in recent years. That’s reflected in the betting as Liverpool come into the game as the red-hot favourites. The home win is as short as 1.36 at the time of writing with Everton 9.4 and the draw is trading 6.2. The 1.36 on Liverpool is actually the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League; Klopp will be moaning about the time of the fixture, but the market is very confident that it won’t matter!
Liverpool went into the International Break after dropping points in back-to-back games. We had all the VAR drama in their 2-1 loss to Spurs (we still haven’t moved on from that!) and then the exciting 2-2 draw against Brighton. They are three points behind Spurs and Arsenal at the top of the table, but they are still in a nice position. The International Break probably came at a bad time for Everton. They had won two of their last three Premier League games, and beat Aston Villa in the League Cup too. That win over Bournemouth was massive, and gives them a little cushion in the relegation battle. In fairness to Everton they have been creating a lot of chances; their average xG is 1.78 after eight games which is quite impressive. That’s actually the fourth best figure in the Premier League this season, and higher than Liverpool’s. If Everton can hold that level, they won’t be in the relegation battle never mind having to even worry about it! Liverpool have only won three of the last seven meetings between the sides. They will likely win here, but the 1.38 is way too short in my opinion and from a value point of view I’m very happy with the 1.38 lay.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Everton at 1.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivEvn
BOURNEMOUTH V WOLVES
3pm We have a busy afternoon with five games kicking off at 3pm. All eyes will no doubt be on Manchester City v Brighton; I was surprised this wasn’t a main TV fixture this weekend although both sides have European commitments midweek. We start the action with Bournemouth hosting Wolves, and you have to say Bournemouth will be starting to feel the heat in the relegation battle. They’ve yet to win a game, and have only managed three points from their eight games; a 3-0 loss to Everton prior to the International Break was a major red flag! Based on what we’ve seen so far, Luton Town and Sheffield United are highly likely to go back down to the Championship; they just haven’t looked good enough. That only leaves one spot, and at the moment Bournemouth are favourites to take that spot. Everton beating them and then Wolves getting a few results lately puts them home side in major trouble. From that point of view, they need something from this game. At home against Wolves is a game Bournemouth should be targeting – they have back-to-back massive games as they host Burnley next week. Then after those games they have Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle. They need something from these two games.
A lot at stake for the home side then. We have the most open market of the weekend too; Bournemouth are favourites at 2.5 with Wolves 3.05 and the draw is trading 3.6. With Bournemouth not winning a game yet, you could be forgiven for thinking the 2.5 is a little short. Looking at the stats, Wolves have been exceptionally lucky to aim the points they have. Their performance level is the second worst in the Premier League at the moment – Sheffield United are currently the worst. Wolves are conceding an average xG of 1.81 and only creating 0.90. Bournemouth have had their issues, but they are creating more than that. Bournemouth’s problems are all at the back, where they are conceding an average xG of 1.84. We basically have two very poor sides here, and it’s hard to have confidence in either. I feel the value bet is with the draw at 3.6 with both sides cancelling each other out.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouWlv
BRENTFORD V BURNLEY
3pm We have another game here that will have an impact on the bottom of the table as Brentford host Burnley who have started the season in trouble. Coming into this season not many football fans were including Burnley in the relegation talk. They were outsiders behind the likes of Everton, Wolves and Bournemouth. With just four points from their opening eight games, that has changed and now you’d have to say they will be involved in the relegation battle. Especially with Everton playing decent football and Wolves picking up points despite playing poorly. The win over Luton was massive for Burnley, but then they were put to the sword by Chelsea before the International Break. The positive for Burnley is that they have had a difficult fixture list; they’ve played Manchester City, Spurs, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea already. They have a lot of easier fixtures (on paper) coming up now and that will shape their season. They meet Bournemouth next week, and then have Crystal Palace, Sheffield United, Wolves and Everton all before Christmas. It’s how they play in those games that might decide their season.
Brentford have also struggled at the start of the season. Only one win so far, and they aren’t far away from the bottom three. They are only three points ahead of Burnley at the start of the weekend. They come into this game as the odds on favourites, but I feel it would take a brave punter to back them at 1.84. They’ve gone into a lot of games as favourites lately and have come short against the likes of Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham Forest. They are playing a very open game, and that is costing them. Their average xG conceded is 1.49 and they just keep getting into trouble. It will be interesting to see how they do against Burnley here because Burnley are only creating an average xG of 0.90 this season – that’s a very limited figure, but they have had a difficult fixture list. I’m going to keep stakes small in this one, but I do expect a closer game than the odds suggest. The 1.84 on Brentford is too short in my opinion, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the home lay.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Brentford to beat Burnley at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreBur
MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON
3pm Next we have the highlight of the 3pm fixtures as Manchester City host Brighton. This should be a cracking game between two sides who play fantastic football. At the moment, they are both sitting in the top three for chances created this season – they are behind Spurs at the top of the table with an xG of 2.20! Brighton have obviously conceded more chances, but it’s hard to compare a side to Manchester City. Their average xG conceded is only 0.83 which is exceptionally impressive; that’s the best defensive figure in the Premier League this season. The only other team conceding an average xG under 1.0 is Arsenal. City went into the International Break off the back of two losses, and that has definitely opened up the title race a little. Prior to their losses against Wolves and Arsenal, it looked like the title race might be over early this season. They are still the best side looking at the stats and you’d expect them to lift the title come May, but they are suffering with injuries at the moment – it will be interesting to see do they drop any points here or in the Manchester Derby next weekend. I know United have been very poor this season, but that squad of players always turns up in big games when you least expect it.
It will also be interesting to see what tactics Brighton employ here. They have been played a very open and attacking game this season, but that might not pay off against this City side. Generally if you play open and attacking football to go toe-to-toe with City you come out on the wrong end of things. City are the heavy odds on favourites despite Brighton creating so many chances this season. The home win is 1.44 with Brighton 7.4 and the draw is 5.7 at the time of writing. It’s hard to make the case that City should be much shorter than their current 1.44 and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. This game absolutely screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is trading even shorter than the City win at 1.42. The bet that jumps off the page here though is Both Teams To Score at 1.61. Brighton have shown more than enough to suggest they can score here, and City have conceded a lot of sloppy/lazy goals this season. I expect plenty of goals in an end-to-end game. At 1.61, BTTS is worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Both Teams To Score at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ManBha
NEWCASTLE V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have Newcastle hosting Crystal Palace, and I’m sure Newcastle will be a very popular bet at 1.5 this weekend. They had a difficult fixture list towards the start of the season, but they have been playing some nice football over the last few weeks. They have been very strong at home too; they beat Manchester City in the Carabao Cup and then PSG in the Champions League. The whole city was rocking never mind the stadium! They only have one more point than Crystal Palace at the moment, but you’d expect them to move up the table as the games go by. They really should have beaten Liverpool here and I’m sure they still think about that game; 1-0 up with a man advantage too. With Manchester United and Chelsea struggling so much this season, Newcastle could definitely hold onto their Top Four spot – although Spurs are probably favourites for that fourth spot now after their start to the season. They have been creating a whopping average xG of 2.2. Newcastle have been playing some excellent football too; their average xG is 1.70 and they are only conceding an average of 1.13.
While a lot is made about how good Newcastle have been going forward, that figure at the back is very impressive. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have a better record at the back this season. Crystal Palace have been creating more-or-less what they are conceding. There’s only 0.05 in the difference and to be honest that’s a fair reflection of their position in the table; they’ll finish mid-table without any drama. With home advantage here it’s very hard to see past Newcastle, and I like the 1.5 bet. It’s definitely a nice option for any Acca this weekend, but it’s big enough to recommend on its own in my opinion. Palace will aim to keep things as tight as possible away from home, but I can see Newcastle breaking through at some stage. They have been too good going forward not to find the net at some stage, and from there they will control the game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Crystal Palace at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcCry
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LUTON TOWN
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Nottingham Forest hosting Luton Town, in another game that might have a massive impact on the relegation battle. Forest will be delighted with their start to the season; nine points from eight games and at the moment it looks like they won’t even be close to a relegation battle. That’s a relief after last season! Unfortunately for Luton, they look to be in trouble. They start the weekend sitting outside the bottom three but only on goal difference and so far they haven’t looked up to Premier League standard. Their performance level hasn’t been as bad as some other sides, but it still makes for poor reading. Their average xG created is only 1.10 and their average conceded is a high 1.70 – you’re not going to win many games with figures like that! Forest have worrying figures too; they are actually creating less than Luton with an average of just 1.04 and they are conceding reasonably high chances at an average of 1.47 as well. It’s massive to have home advantage given all the issues Forest had away from home last season, but you wouldn’t exactly be rushing to back Forest at odds on here.
They come into the game as the 1.7 favourites, and that’s a little short in my opinion. The problem is Luton just haven’t looked good enough this season, and they haven’t had a majorly difficult fixture list either. That’s why they are trading such heavy favourites to go down. They have to play Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle all before Christmas. It might be a poor Christmas in Luton as they sit in the bottom three! The Forest lay is definitely tempting at 1.7, but Luton have been conceding an average xG of over 2.0 away from home. I think we’ll see a pretty cagey game here with both sides struggling to create chances; you’d worry about Luton at the back, but Forest might not be able to take advantage. Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 1.84.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotLut
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
5.30pm We have the highlight of the weekend next as Chelsea host Arsenal in a massive London Derby. We have so many talking points heading into this game, but the reality is both sides are in very different places coming into this game. Arsenal put themselves slap-bang in the title race again with a win over Manchester City prior to the International Break, while Chelsea have had a terrible start to the season; they aren’t even in the top ten starting this weekend and they’ll likely miss out on European football again this season. Obviously there’s a lot going on off the pitch at Chelsea, and Arsenal really couldn’t be in a better place at the moment. We have a very open betting heat; it’s not quite the most open betting heat of the day but Arsenal come into the game as the favourites at 2.42 while Chelsea are 3.25 and the draw is 3.55. Chelsea have had a lot of issues scoring goals this season, and the 4-1 win over Burnley would have been a nice confidence boost before the International Break. That being said, they have come up short is so many situations this season it feels like this game is there for the taking for Arsenal.
Arsenal have been playing rock solid football this season, it’s been hard to fault them. They are creating an average xG of 1.75 which is high, and as I highlighted above only themselves and Manchester City are conceding an xG of under 1.0 this season. It seems to me that Chelsea need to create a huge amount of chances to actually score goals – they lack a striker and I can’t see Arsenal giving them that volume of chances. The 2.42 on Arsenal is a very appealing bet, but I would expect a tense and close affair here. Very similar to the Arsenal v City game before the International Break. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.95 and that looks like a cracking bet. Arsenal won’t play an open game away from home, and Arteta has definitely given them a backbone away from home too. Chelsea games have been quite low scoring this season as well; I couldn’t put anyone off Arsenal at 2.42 – indeed, Arsenal have won the last three meetings between the sides but Under 2.5 goals stands out for me here at the odds. I couldn’t be surprised to see a 1-0 Arsenal win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ChlArs
SHEFFIELD UNITED V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm We finish a wonderful Saturday with Sheffield United hosting Manchester United. You have to say we have a fantastic day to enjoy here; starting early with the Merseyside Derby, busy 3pm fixtures, then Chelsea v Arsenal finished with United in action! United come into this game as the red-hot favourites; they are currently trading 1.46 at the time of writing with Sheffield United 7.8 and the draw is 5.3. It’s hard to have confidence in United at the moment; they have been all over the place this season. They start the weekend sitting in mid-table, and it would be a shock if they made the Top Four this season. Their wins have all been unconvincing – the Brentford win at Old Trafford before the International Break was a smash and grab with two goals in injury time to come from 1-0 down. Obviously a win like that is a huge boost to morale, but it wouldn’t make you want to back them at 1.44 here! I feel if we had another side, United would be worth taking on off the back of the International Break but Sheffield United have been woeful this season.
Sheffield United are the worst side in the Premier League looking at the stats this season. Not only are they creating the least amount of chances, they are also conceding the most. Problems are both ends of the pitch, and the stats don’t make good reading at all. They are conceding an average xG of 2.20 which is massive really, and their xG created is only 0.82. With home advantage here they might be able to cause United problems, especially because United have conceded so many sloppy goals this season. However, I haven’t seen enough from Sheffield United to lay United at 1.44. We have two poor sides at the back here, and we could see plenty of goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.61 and jumps off the page here. Both Teams To Score also looks good value at 1.85; I know the Sheffield United figures going forward are so poor, but United will give them chances here. On balance, I prefer Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 because we all know United (if they turn up) have the talent to blow Sheffield United away with the home side conceding such a high average xG. At the same time, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see something like a 3-3 result here, and goals looks the best option.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SfuMun
