SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ASTON VILLA and LUTON v LIVERPOOL both with recommended BETDAQ bets.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ASTON VILLA
2pm We’re back to our usual schedule for Super Sunday this week from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have two odds on favourites away from home today, but we very different markets! Liverpool are exceptionally short against Luton Town, while we start the day with Nottingham Forest hosting Aston Villa. So far this season Aston Villa will be absolutely delighted; they started this matchday sitting in fifth place and Unai Emery has them full of confidence. They are playing some excellent football, and their stats are impressive to back it up. It’s no surprise that Villa come into this game as the odds on favourites, however I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.93 when I clicked into the market. I wasn’t expecting them to be so close to 2.0. Nottingham Forest are 4.3 and the draw is 3.9. Nottingham Forest started the weekend five points away from the bottom three, and although they seem to be a level above the bottom four; they could get dragged into the relegation battle but you’d expect them to be safe. There’s definitely a clear bottom four this season in my opinion.
There’s a clear gulf in class between the sides here looking at their stats. The Aston Villa overall performance level is +0.41, while the Nottingham Forest one is -0.46. Forest are only creating an average xG of 1.09 which in the bottom five attacking figures. They aren’t conceding the most chances in the league, but 1.55 is still very high to be fair. Aston Villa are creating an average xG of 1.6 and they have been solid at the back too. Forest have definitely been conceding more chances away from home, but they’ve still been average at home. It’s also worth pointing out that Villa haven’t been as good on the road; they have been very strong at home – especially at the back. All things considered, I still feel the 1.93 on Aston Villa is a good bet here – I would definitely have them a few ticks shorter. There are reasons to lower stakes however, especially when you look at the Villa chances created away from home, two points feels the right stake here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotAvl
LUTON TOWN V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm We finish the day with Luton Town hosting Liverpool, and Jurgen Klopp’s men come into this fixture as red-hot favourites. They aren’t the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League – that title went to Manchester City at home to Bournemouth, but it’s fair to say the market can’t see past an away win here. Liverpool are trading as short as 1.26 at the time of writing with Luton Town 13.0 and the draw is 7.4. With Bournemouth winning last weekend, Luton slipped into the relegation zone. They are long odds on to go back down to the Championship this season, but the reality is their results against the likes of Liverpool aren’t going to have a major impact on their relegation battle – you have to say that anything here is a complete bonus! Their loss here to Burnley for example was way more damaging than any result here. It’s hard to see anything bar a Liverpool win here, and I feel it’s about how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win. We also know that Liverpool have had major issues at the back, and they are still conceding plenty of chances too. They’ve still be fantastic going forward though; their average xG created is 1.79 which is the third best figure in the Premier League coming into this weekend. The only major difference between them compared to Manchester City and Arsenal is that they aren’t as solid at the back.
With Liverpool trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here. I wouldn’t put anyone off including Liverpool at 1.26 in their weekend Acca, but there’s no prizes for tipping odds that short. Luton have really struggled to create chances since coming up to the Premier League – their average xG created is only 0.94 – they are only one of three sides with an average xG of under 1.0. They are conceded an average xG of 1.73 too, which is the fourth worst record at the back this season. Liverpool are going to get a host of chances here, and they can cover the Handicap. They are trading 1.7 -1.5 goals and I feel this looks cracking value. Liverpool are creating close to two goals per game, while Luton are conceding close to two goals per game. Luton seemingly don’t have the talent to trouble Liverpool at the back too; the Handicap is a very appealing bet. Not quite a Max Bet, but not far off.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Luton Town at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutLiv
