SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games with recommended BETDAQ bets.
BAYERN MUNICH V HEIDENHEIM
2.30pm It’s a big club Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Bayern Munich, Juventus and Real Madrid all in action from the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. All three are playing at home, and I’m sure the home treble will be very popular – that’s actually trading around 1.91 at the time of writing which does make a lot of appeal! We start the action in the Bundesliga with the shortest price around Europe this weekend as Bayern Munich host Heidenheim. Bayern are trading as short as 1.08 at the time of writing – that’s the shortest price I’ve seen in domestic football this season. I know we have shorter prices in International football where sides don’t have many professional players etc, but I haven’t seen a price that low in the major leagues. The market definitely feels it’s a case of how many goals will Bayern score rather than will they win! With Bayern trading so short in the market odds market, this is definitely a game to look around the side markets for some value and the focus will be on the goal and handicap markets.
Bundesliga new boys Heidenheim will be pretty pleased with their ten points from ten games this season. That leaves them four points away from the bottom three, and surely their sole aim this season is to just stay in the Bundesliga. They’ll be hoping to do better than Darmstadt here who also came up this season; they got tonked 8-0! Heidenheim have played marginally better football this season, but their under-lining numbers are still very poor. Their average xG conceded is 1.74 which is a very high figure to bring into Bayern Munich away! The German Champions are creating an average xG of 2.35 this season which is miles away from all the other Bundesliga sides – they have been rock solid at the back too being the only side with an average xG conceded of under 1.0. Bayern will run riot again here in my opinion, and Any Other Home Win looks cracking value at 1.83 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Any Other Home Win at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayHei
JUVENTUS V CAGLIARI
5pm Next we move over to Serie A as Juventus host Cagliari. Juventus would be much happier in the Champions League, but they’ve had a nice break due to missing out on Europe this season because of a ten point deduction last season. That’s allowed them to fully focus on Serie A, and as we have seen a few times around Europe that tends to help clubs build a title challenge – it’s just so difficult to compete in every major competition. Another win for Juve last weekend left them two points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table, and with a four point cushion to AC Milan and five points to Napoli; Juventus are definitely in the title race this season! Winning games like this is an absolute must if they want to continue that title challenge – home advantage against a side like Cagliari who start the weekend just outside the relegation zone in 17th is a must win game. Cagliari have managed to put back-to-back wins together, but that still only leaves them with nine points from 11 games. Cagliari have tried to keep things as tight as possible this season, but they have been quite limited going forward.
Judging them purely on the under-lining numbers, you’d be surprised if Cagliari went down this season. There are some worse performing sides in Serie A this season! Nevertheless, this is obviously an exceptionally difficult fixture for them and Juventus come into the game as the red-hot favourites. The home win is trading 1.39 with Cagliari 9.2 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. Juventus have been top class at home this season – they are creating close to two goals per game on xG and conceding marginally under 1.0 – that’s a very strong performance level! Cagliari’s average xG created away from home this season is only 1.1, and I feel Juventus can keep a clean sheet here on their way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.76 and that looks a nice position here. Over 2.5 goals is odds on, but Juventus haven’t exactly been blowing sides away; I much prefer the Both Teams Not To Score option.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvCag
REAL MADRID V VALENCIA
8pm We go to La Liga to finish a top class Saturday as Real Madrid host Valencia. You could be forgiven for thinking there’s been a typo at the top of La Liga this season with Girona sitting top after 12 games! They have had an incredible start to the season, and they went two points clear last weekend as Real Madrid dropped points against Rayo Vallecano. Girona are trading 2.5+ to beat Rayo Vallecano this weekend! Real Madrid were exceptionally unlucky not to win last weekend in fairness; they finished the game with an xG of 2.16 and only conceded 0.26. It was just one of those nights the ball didn’t go into the net for them – you couldn’t fault the performance. They come into this game as the red-hot favourites – they are currently trading 1.37 with Valencia 9.2 and the draw is 5.6. As I mentioned above, the home treble looks a cracking bet today and I couldn’t put anyone off including Real Madrid in any weekend Acca. They have been exceptional this season, their average xG created is 2.08 which is the best figure in La Liga, and they also have the joint-best figure at the back too.
What makes this an interesting game is the fact that Valencia also have that figure at the back. Both sides are conceding an average xG of 1.22 which, along with Barcelona, is the best figure at the back this season. The major difference between the sides here is the attacking figures. Valencia have been solid at the back, but that has come at a cost going forward – their average xG created is only 1.10 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga. They will likely approach this game in a cagey fashion too. Away from home, their chances created drops a little further too. Much like the Juventus game above, it’s hard to know how many goals Real Madrid can score here but we do know how solid at the back they are and how limited Valencia are going forward. I think Real will keep a clean sheet on the way to victory, and Both Teams Not To Score looks a very nice position at 1.8 or bigger.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaVnc
