BIG-ODDS FINALE TO THE FLAT: Daqman sees out the Flat with a final fling of three bull’s-eye bets including 12.5 and 13.5, both at Newcastle, where he has a 1-2-3 in the big-race farewell, the November Handicap.
AND A NEW STAR OVER JUMPS? Then he covers the two big Jumps races at Wincanton and Aintree but warns: try to watch the Champion Chase at Down Royal where novice star Gerri Colombe takes on seasoned chasers Envoi Allen and Minella Indo.
VERA ‘HUGE VALUE’ AT 12.5
⭕ 1.30 Newcastle (1m 2f Fillies’ Listed) The stats are not much help today because they pertain to a Doncaster turf history but the change to Tapeta for most of these runners may uphold one current trend: no favourite has scored in the decade.
LAYS LOGIC: Veil Of Shadows has won only her maiden – always a bad sign – and her seconds and third, mainly from the front, without winning from class 3 to Grade 3 show progression but continuous failure to finish.
Similarly, Sound Angela has run well but failed to score in five consecutive Listed tries. But she did win on today’s course in a handicap last July.
Mukaddamah is another to have failed since her maiden success; placed four times in 11 starts, mainly Listed, without winning.
Gavin Cromwell has six runners between Gowran Park and Down Royal but Vera Verto is a lone raider for this race, after stepping up a stone in handicaps.
I have faith in the mare’s chance of making all; she’s dropping back half a mile, and was huge at 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Rob Hornby, who rode her to victory at Newmarket over a dual winner in second, gets the mount again and should outgun Veil Of Shadows for stamina if they duel for the lead.
GOLD WAS BIG AT BETDAQ 13.5
⭕ 2.05 Newcastle (6f Listed) Sense Of Duty completed a four-timer in landing a Group 3 over this CD, and has aimed high since.
Drops down to Listed level here against Albasheer, who has won just once since his maiden, Brad The Brief whose success last Spring was on turf with soft in the going return, and Tacarib Bay who has similar form. Embrace has won only her maiden, always a bad sign.
Glorious Angel, three times a winner on Tapeta in January, has suffered a sequence of 18 defeats since, five times second in her last seven starts, another bad sign.
But, if Aberama Gold scored, it would be his fourth set of back-to-back strikes, including three wins on AW among those three doubles.
BETDAQ value 13.5 Aberama Gold (Sense Of Duty saver)
FOX FOR YOUR FLAT FAREWELL
⭕ 3.45 Newcastle (November Handicap, 1m 4f) Daqman’s winner order in:
1: TEUMESSIAS FOX Broke his maiden here and won class 2 at Newmarket after his last break, having also won following a holiday after gelding. Not disgraced twice at high level behind Hamish and now fresh from another long break.
2: LAAFI Gradual improvement last year, and back to form the last day on turf (heavy), third run after being gelded. Dirt champion on mare’s side.
3: LOCAL DYNASTY Third at Royal Ascot and fourth at the July Meeting; winner at this time last year but not beyond a mile. Has had a long holiday after a gelding op.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.7 Local Dynasty, 6.5 Teumessias Fox, 9.4 Laafi
BLACKJACK TO BEAT THE BANK
⭕ 2.25 Wincanton (Badger Beer Chase, 3m 1f) Frodon’s seasonal debuts since 2016 have resulted in 1313111, the last of them this race a year ago, giving 22lb and 26lb to the placed horses.
Joe Tizzard is in form but The Big Breakaway is probably headed for the Welsh Grand National (second in 2022); he takes a poor strike rate to a race like today’s (1-12 over fences).
Ashtown Lad could well be prepping for the Becher Chase, which he won last year. Certainly Red won twice here in a hat-trick at the turn of the year, and Frodon’s stablemate, Threeunderthrufive, has had a wind op to try to recover his excellent novice-chaxe form.
I think Anthony Honeyball has the right idea. He had Sam Brown top weight if Frodon hadn’t run, with lightweights poised to take advantage, as nearly happened last year.
With Frodon in, he has Gustavian off 10st 7lb, Blackjack Magic and Forward Plan both off 10st 2lb receive 21lb, 26lb and 29lb (4lb out of the weights, 3lb claim included) and must go mighty close to toppling Frodon. Blackjack Magic is a good jumper, which you need round Wincanton.
BETDAQ value; 6.3 Frodon, 8.1 Blackjack Magic
FIND THE LADY AT AINTREE
⭕ 2.45 Aintree (Grand Sefton Chase, 2m 5f, Grand National fences) The stats are unreliable; this is about jumping those big fences in the mud so, whether he’s your first choice or a saver, Gesskille takes some of the guesswork out of it.
The Grand Sefton is not normally a Grand National pointer but, after being just touched off in this race last year, Gesskille was second again over the big fences in the 3m 2f Becher Chase when only six.
He’s won twice at Auteuil over 2m 6f, the last time in September for a £49k prize. So speedy, a jumper and a stayer.
When Gesskille was Grand Sefton runner-up last year, Percussion was third at levels – he now gets 10lb – but he was third again in the Becher, three lengths off Gesskille, when receiving 7lb.
Fantastic Lady, who travels and jumps like a top player over big fences, wins when fresh, was second in the Topham (also 2m 5f) in April on soft; Gesskille ninth, short of room and lacking pace.
Born By The Sea is very hard to place (just three wins in 52 starts) and his sixth in the Grand National is typical of him: commendable but not quite good enough.
BETDAQ value 4.7 Gesskille, 7.4 Fantastic Lady
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Newcastle (win-50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 4.25pts win and place VERA VERTO
2.05 Newcastle (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4pts win and place ABERAMA GOLD
BET 8pts to win 10 SENSE OF DUTY
2.25 Wincanton (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7pts win BLACKJACK MAGIC
BET 4pts to win 20 FRODON
2.45 Aintree (win 20 each)
BET 5.5pts win GESSKILLE
BET 3pts win FANTASTIC LADY
3.45 Newcastle (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win TEUMESSIAS FOX
BET 3.5pts win LAAFI
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