SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v ALAVES, LAZIO v ROMA and ATLETICO MADRID v VILLARREAL all with recommended BETDAQ bets.
BARCELONA V ALAVES
3.15pm We have a fantastic Sunday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are in action in La Liga, and then we have a superb clash between Lazio and Roma in Serie A. It’s a great day to finish off the domestic schedule before we head into the next International break. We start the day in La Liga with Barcelona hosting Alaves. Barcelona got back to winning ways last weekend after losing El Clasico, and they find themselves starting the weekend four points behind Girona who have definitely been the surprise package in La Liga this season! I keep saying they will drop away as the season goes on but they just keep collecting points. Alaves also won last weekend, and that came them a six point cushion over the bottom three coming into this weekend. After coming up from the Segunda, their sole aim this season will be staying in La Liga and it’s a case of so far so good in that sense. Most football fans will see this as an easy win for Barcelona, and to be honest anything bar a comfortable home win will be a surprise.
Barcelona come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.27 at the time of writing, and that’s the shortest price in La Liga this weekend. If you fancy a shock, Alaves are trading 13.0 with the draw at 6.6. It’s hard to fault Barcelona this season; their under-lining numbers have been impressive and they have pretty much done everything asked of them. Obviously Jude Bellingham won El Clasico in injury time, but that happens. The interesting thing with this fixture is that I would suggest Alaves have reasonably good xG figures. They are creating an average of 1.49 which is the sixth best figure coming into this weekend – not bad for a side who finished fourth in the Segunda last season. I can’t see past a Barcelona win here, but the 1.27 does feel a little short with that Alaves attacking figure. Barcelona have been solid at the back, but I feel Alaves can score at some stage here. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.21 and I’d have this a little closer to evens (2.0).
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.21 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarAla
LAZIO V ROMA
5pm Next we head to Serie A for the highlight of the weekend! Lazio face Roma in a huge clash for both sides with the two managers already poking each other in the media earlier in the week! The atmosphere should be buzzing, and we’re bound to have drama. Both sides have had reasonably poor starts to the season – they both side in mid-table and there’s only one point between them. Roma started the weekend four points behind the top four and Lazio are five. It’s hard to see either of them breaking into the top four to be honest; Roma had a golden chance last season and finished badly. Then while Lazio finished in second their performance levels were way lower than all the sides around them, and it was pretty obvious that they would have a drop off this season. This season Lazio’s xG figures are poor too; they’ve actually been unlucky to get the points they have. Their average xG created is 1.12 and they are conceding more at 1.36. Roma have struggled to create a lot of chances this season – they are only marginally creating more than Lazio are conceding at 1.38 but they have been one of the best sides at the back this season. Their average xG conceded is only 1.08 which is the second best figure in Serie A – only Inter Milan have been better at the back.
We have an exceptionally open market here, it’s the most open market of the weekend in Serie A! Roma come into the game as the favourites at 2.74 with Lazio at 2.92 and the draw is 3.15. Although Roma haven’t been impressive going forward, they have been so solid at the back I would suggest this is going to be a very cagey game. Lazio have created very little at home too; their average xG created at home is only 1.08. Lazio have come out 1-0 winners in their last two meetings, and while that could easily be the score here again I’m much happier to stay out of the match odds market here because Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.64 and that looks a cracking position. The under-lining numbers screams a lack of goals and chances here, and I was surprised to see Unders trading as big as 1.64. You wouldn’t be surprised to see Mourinho park the bus, but I would definitely lean towards them given how average Lazio have been but Unders looks a nice bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazRma
ATLETICO MADRID V VILLARREAL
8pm Finally we move over to La Liga to finish the weekend as Atletico Madrid host Villarreal. This should be an interesting game, but you’d definitely expect Atletico to come through it, especially with home advantage. Villarreal have taken a backwards step, maybe even a few steps, since Unai Emery left for Aston Villa. They managed to hang onto fifth last season but they’ve made a terrible start to this season. They started the weekend sitting down in 13th with only one point per game. Their average xG created is only 1.15 and they are conceding an average xG of 1.68. There aren’t many positives to report on Villarreal! That average xG conceded is one of the highest in La Liga – Cadiz have the worst figure but that’s only 0.01 higher! In terms of performance levels and under-lining numbers, Villarreal have been the second worst side in La Liga this season – their overall xG is -0.53. Only Cadiz have a worse record. As you would expect with these figures, Atletico come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading 1.41 at the time of writing with Villarreal 8.6 and the draw is 5.5.
It’s easy to feel that the 1.41 is a little short on Atletico because Villarreal have been a great side for many seasons, however it’s clear that their performance level this season just isn’t good enough. I wouldn’t say that Atletico have been the most impressive side this season; their figures don’t jump off the page like Real Madrid or Barcelona, but they have been a lot more solid at home. Most of their issues have come away from home where they are conceding more than they are creating. Away from home, Villarreal have been creating very little – their average xG created is under 1.0 away from home. I would be interested in Atletico to cover the handicap here, but I feel Atletico can keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 2.16 and this looks cracking value in my opinion – I’d have it odds on personally.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlVil
