SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews RAYO VALLECANO v BARCELONA, ATALANTA v NAPOLI and AC MILAN v FIORENTINA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RAYO VALLECANO V BARCELONA
1pm It’s great to have domestic football back, and we have a wonderful Saturday around Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We have action from La Liga and Serie A with Barcelona, Napoli and AC Milan all in action. As I said in my preview of Friday night football, we’ve definitely had a stop-start season so far with all the International breaks but now we get a good clean four month run at the major leagues. This run is going to be very important to the likes of Barcelona and Napoli who are trying to defend their titles and are also a little bit behind the league leaders. Girona have been the surprise package of this La Liga season, and they top the table heading into this weekend, Real Madrid are two points behind them with Barcelona four back. I doubt the big two in Spain are worried about Girona, but they just keep winning! For casual football fans, this will be viewed as an “easy” win for Barcelona but Rayo Vallecano have consistently given them problems – Barcelona are without a win in the last four meetings, and Rayo Vallecano have won three of those. Talk about bogey team!
Barcelona come into the game trading as the odds on favourites – they are 1.68 at the time of writing with Rayo Vallecano 5.6 and the draw is 4.3. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.68 given the recent results, but there is a huge gulf in class between the sides looking at the under-lining numbers this season. Barcelona have been the best team in La Liga at the back – their average xG conceded is only 1.19 while Rayo Vallecano have been one of the worst – their average xG conceded is 1.64 and only three teams have performed below that level. That record improves a little at home though, and Rayo Vallecano have been creating a lot at home – their average xG created at home this season is 1.85 which is very impressive. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here – the 1.68 doesn’t make massive appeal on Barcelona. I like Both Teams To Score at the bigger price of 1.74. While their figures are good at the back, Barcelona have conceded some sloppy goals this season and Rayo Vallecano have created enough to suggest they can score at some stage.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayBrc
ATALANTA V NAPOLI
5pm Next we go to Serie A for the highlight of the day as Atalanta host Napoli. This is a massive game for both sides who have both dropped points in the run up to the last International break. Inter Milan and Juventus have both been ticking off the wins, and there’s a gap forming now between the top two and the rest. Napoli are going to start this game a whopping ten points behind league leaders Inter Milan – that’s a huge gap to close, and their chances of retaining their title now are very slim in my opinion. Napoli were superb in the early part of last season, and they had this type of gap built up last season – it’s not the case this season! Atalanta have also dropped points recently – they are sitting one point behind Napoli and they’re sitting just outside the top four. I have to say I wouldn’t be surprised if they managed a top four spot, but they came up short last season and their most likely spot in fifth again. This is a massive game when you look at the situation for both clubs, and realistically a must win game for Napoli if they want to stay in the title race (if they’re still in it!). We have an exceptionally open market, and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game too.
At the time of writing, both sides are actually trading the same price! Both Atalanta and Napoli are 2.72 with the draw 3.55. While this might scream a classic cagey Italian affair, that hasn’t been the case in the recent meetings. Only one game from the last six meetings has finished with Under 2.5 goals. Looking at the under-lining numbers, Napoli have definitely been playing the better football this season. Their average xG created is 2.01 – the highest in Serie A this season. Their overall performance level is +0.90 too, which is again the highest in Serie A. The issue is they just aren’t getting results! Atalanta’s performance level is also good, but not close to Napoli. Their overall performance level is +0.40 which is the third best figure in the league, and they have been very solid at the back too. We should actually have a cracking game here – and I agree with the market, it’s hard to pick a favourite. I feel the value is definitely with the draw at 3.55 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtaNpo
AC MILAN V FIORENTINA
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish the evening as AC Milan host Fiorentina. Much like the Atalanta v Napoli fixture above, this is a massive game for both sides who again have both dropped points recently. AC Milan have gone four Serie A games without a win, but they did have to play Juventus and Napoli in that run in fairness. That’s left them with a eight point gap to Inter Milan at the top of the table, and I just can’t see them closing that. However, considering they would have missed out on a top four finish last season bar the ten point deduction for Juventus; a top four spot would be a very good result. For Fiorentina, they finished eighth last season just outside the European spots, so obviously you know what their target will be this season! They have been playing decent football, and you could say based on performances that they deserve a European spot this season. Their overall performance level is +0.28 on xG, which is the sixth best figure heading into this weekend. They are basically in the top six on everything; attack and defence – this should be a tough evening for AC Milan who have had their issues this season.
I have to say from the top four clubs at the moment, I can see AC Milan missing out. They are only creating an average xG of 1.36, and they are conceding close to that too at 1.27. That’s basically mid-table form. That’s the main reason why they don’t come into this game as the odds on favourites despite having home advantage; AC Milan at 2.1 with Fiorentina 4.0 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. The big worry here when supporting Fiorentina is that they haven’t created much away from home this season – their xG drops off dramatically away from home. AC Milan just haven’t been impressive this season, but the Fiorentina away figures puts me off the lay on AC Milan. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.9. I really expected to see this price trading even sub 1.7. Both sides have been reasonably solid at the back; Fiorentina struggle to create much away from home and AC Milan just haven’t been creating a decent volume of chances. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 here! At 1.9 I feel we’re getting so much value that Unders is worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilFio
