SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews REAL SOCIEDAD v SEVILLA, CADIZ v REAL MADRID and JUVENTUS v INTER MILAN all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL SOCIEDAD V SEVILLA
3.15pm We have a wonderful Sunday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE around Europe! No doubt all eyes will be on Juventus v Inter Milan this evening as the showpiece fixture in Europe this weekend, but we have two interesting markets in La Liga before we get there, including Real Madrid in action. We start the day with Real Sociedad hosting Sevilla – in the past this would have been a massive battle between two sides pushing for European spots, but this season they are both struggling. Sevilla start the weekend sitting down in 13th – but at least they aren’t in a relegation fight like last season! I really felt that after winning the Europa League and getting into the Champions League that last season would be just a bump in the road and they shoot back into the top four – that hasn’t been the case. Real Sociedad finished in the top four in place of Sevilla last season, but they have struggled at the start of this season. They start the weekend sitting in sixth already six points behind the top four. Obviously Girona have been the surprise package, but they already have a 12 point advantage over Real Sociedad and they might actually get a top four spot! What a story that would be – they finished sixth in the Segunda in 2021/22 and only made it to La Liga through the playoffs!
I have to say when I clicked into the market here I was very surprised to see the odds. Real Sociedad are the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Sevilla 5.2 and the draw is 3.8. I know Sevilla have struggled for results this season, but their under-lining numbers are very impressive. They just need to start taking their chances! Their average xG created this season is a very impressive 1.99 – only Real Madrid are creating more chances. They have been solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is 1.27 which puts them in the top four. However; again they are conceding more goals than they should! Compare this to the Real Sociedad figures though – they are performing to a mid-table standard. They are creating and conceding the same average at 1.33 – playing pretty basic football but you have to give them credit; they are getting more results than Sevilla! Obviously I am worried about Sevilla not taking their chances again, but I just cannot have this Real Sociedad price. At 1.78 I feel we’re getting so much value that it’s worth a Max Lay!
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Real Sociedad to beat Sevilla at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocSev
CADIZ V REAL MADRID
5.30pm We stay in La Liga next as Cadiz host Real Madrid. If you’re a fan of xG figures, you’ll know that this is the clash of the worst performing club in La Liga against the best performing club in La Liga! Real Madrid don’t start the weekend sitting top of the table, and Cadiz aren’t sitting bottom of the table either, but you know that Real will make a massive challenge for the title and Cadiz will be involved in the relegation battle over the next few months. Real Madrid have been superb going forward – their average xG created is 2.07 and they are the only club in La Liga with an average of over 2.0. Compare that to Cadiz, who are only creating an average xG of 0.86 which is the worst attacking record. Cadiz are also conceding an average xG of 1.69 which is the second worst record at the back, the opposite end of the table are Real Madrid with the second best record at the back! It’s like they mirror each other at the opposite ends of the table; it’s very hard to see past a Real Madrid win here but it’s also worth noting that Cadiz have managed two draws in the last four meetings.
It’s no surprise that Real Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.53 at the time of writing with Cadiz 7.0 and the draw is 4.6. Real have been conceding more chances away from home, but I still feel that the 1.53 is ten ticks too big here. Cadiz have been playing to a very poor level this season, and anyone creating an average xG of under 1.0 is always going to struggle. Even their average xG created at home is under 1.0 so it’s not like it’s their away performances bringing them down massively. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.53 on Real Madrid, indeed I really like the bet myself – however I feel Real can also cover the handicap here at a bigger price. They are trading 2.35 -1.5 goals and this looks cracking value in my opinion. Real are creating over two goals on average this season in La Liga, and they can easily brush aside this average Cadiz side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Cadiz at 2.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CdzRma
JUVENTUS V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish the weekend, and this is undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend in Europe as Juventus host Inter Milan in a top of the table clash. With the likes of AC Milan, Napoli and Atalanta all dropping points in the games leading into the International break, Juventus and Inter Milan have definitely broken away into a top two situation. Inter start the weekend sitting in top two points ahead of Juventus, but then there’s a six point gap to AC Milan. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out – a win for Inter away from home will give them a huge boost in the title race. You’d say that Juventus probably have to win here to make it a real battle for the title; Juventus haven’t been playing as good as Inter this season though. There’s actually quite a big difference in performance level between the sides. Inters overall performance level is +0.78 while Juventus have an overall figure of +0.30. Inters average xG created is 1.80 which is the second best figure in Serie A this season; Juventus have been decent but they are a good bit below at 1.5.
Inter Milan also have the best record in Serie A at the back this season; their average xG conceded is only 1.02. Juventus aren’t too bad, but again quite a good bit off at 1.20. You’d definitely have to give Inter an edge heading into this game, but Juventus have been much better at home this season compared to away from home. Their performances away from home have been quite average – they are actually conceding more chances than they are creating but at home they have been top class. Inter still come into the game as the favourites though; they are trading 2.32 with Juventus 3.6 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. I couldn’t fault the Inter performance level this season, and their figures away from home are pretty impressive as well. However, I would have the sides a little closer together in the market here given how good Juventus have been at home this season. The 2.32 is a little short on Inter, but also the 3.6 is appealing on Juventus – I’m going to opt to have the draw on our side with an Inter lay rather than a Juventus win, but I feel both positions offer value. Only 42% of the meetings between the sides have had Over 2.5 goals, so Under 2.5 could also be an option at 1.78 – the last four meetings have finished with Under 2.5 goals too. The 1.78 is definitely an appealing bet, but I feel the Inter lay at 2.32 offers the best value with the Juventus home performances being so good.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Juventus at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JveInt
