12-1 WINNER IN THE KING GEORGE: Daqman’s bets were first and second in the King George yesterday, the right way round if Bravemansgame had not been hampered by Shishkin, but there’s no wrong way when you’re on the winner, Hewick, at 12-1.
WON 12-1 HEWICK (Tuesday: King George/Bravemansgame 2nd)
WON 10-3 FONTAINE COLLONGES (Tuesday: profit on the day 7.25)
WON 5-2 FAMOUS BRIDGE (Saturday nap, 109 this year)
GOES 14-5 CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: Daqman’s three Christmas winners take him into a 14-5 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post, showing a sensational 354.83 profit to 10-point stakes (Pricewise is 76.66 down). Now for the Welsh Grand National.
ROAD FACING HARSH RAIDER
⭕ 2.10 Chepstow (Finale Juvenile Hurdle) It seems like only yesterday that Bristol De Mai (2014) and Defi Du Seuil (2016) were launched from this.
If anything reaches those dizzy heights from today’s renewal, I hope it is FORTUNE COOKIE Burdett Road, impressive and progressive in two autumn tests, including a Triumph Trial at Cheltenham on soft ground.
But, while there has been an awful lot of Christmas fare at Leopardstown, Joseph O’Brien has picked one runner for one race in England; that’s Harsh in this.
The rain is a bonus for Harsh, who is a Dark Angel out of a Hurricane Run mare and, though not always fluent the last day at Cork, deserves this crack at the best of British! BETDAQ 7.6.
Balboa finished three lengths down in another Triumph Trial at Cheltenham this month, unable to handle An Bradan Feasa, who had been no match for Burdett Road in the first trial in November.
BOOTHILL THE RISING STAR
⭕ 2.30 Kempton (Desert Orchid Chase) With the Sunbury-on-Thames Wednesday forecast ‘gusty winds and heavy rain’, it was not easy to sit back after the sensational day on good ground at Kempton yesterday and guesstimate the results today.
Elixir De Nutz has won at Kempton and had Editeur Du Gite in rear recently when winning the Haldon Gold Cup on his preferred terrain at Exeter (good to soft).
Editeur Du Gite had won the 2022 Desert Orchid by 13 lengths from the 2020 winner, Nube Negra.
But taking these threads of form as the basis for betting in this race would be to ignore the progress of Boothill, a novice-chase winner at this meeting last year but 10lb higher now after back-to-back strikes at Ascot in the autumn, one win on good one on soft.
CLOUD OVER SUPER GAMBLE
⭕ 2.50 Chepstow (🏴 Welsh Grand National 🏴) Gambles have been landed in seven of the last nine runnings, with SPs of 9-1 (twice), 8-1, 13-2 and three favourites at 5-2, 11-4 and 3-1.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: Now here’s Super Survivor, with the bookies running scared, 5-1 in from 20-1 (BETDAQ 7.2), never tackled further than 3m, never won outside novice company.
In fact, the seven-year–old Jamie Snowden gelding has raced in only ONE seniors line-up over hurdles or fences, second of five in a chase just short of 3m at Lingfield last month..
📊 STATS: What to put up against him? Well, 10 of the last 12 winners have carried 10st 10lb or less.
Three of the last four have been trained in Wales by Sam Thomas, Evan Williams and Christian Williams, making six out of 10 home or near-home scorers, if you add the Herefordshire teams of Williams and Lee.
1: AUTONOMOUS CLOUD, bred in the NH purple, by Flemensfirth out of a Presenting mare, is trained by Fergal O’Brien, who won the Long Walk Hurdle on Saturday and the Lincolnshire National yesterday.
The more rain the better for Cloud, eight times consecutively in the frame since joining O’Brien; bitter irony for some if he wins, as he started his career with Colin Tizzard.
2: THE BIG BREAKAWAY was second in this race last year for the yard which is the only one to beat the weights barrier, Colin Tizzard scoring with two six-year-olds off 11-8 and 11-12.
So maybe son Joe can also break with tradition, with this eight-year-old who has only ever won on soft ground. Didn’t enjoy the Grand National fences in the Becher. Blinkers back on.
3: IWILLDOIT Sam Thomas’s 2021 winner off 140 on soft is back, now nearly a stone higher on 153, though his 12st is reduced by Dylan Johnstons’ 7lb claim. Mountainous was the last horse to do the double.
COMPLETE UNKNOWN is left with second-top weight. Disappointing in the Autumn Gold Cup at Newbury when the ground wasn’t soft enough but the fact remains that his best form is on the flat track at Kempton over more than a mile shorter than this.
CHAMBARD Kim Muir winner who is 5lb well in on future ratings, is the pick for Venetia Williams but is 11 years old, going on 12, and won the Becher only 18 days ago.
NASSALAM was eased down here at Chepstow when winning the Trial for this race over shorter, with Wayfinder runner-up (pulled up last year but course form 12112, still standing).
NOT SURE (12lb out of the handicap, along with Didero Vallis ). Kerry Lee saddles this one first time at Chepstow, first time beyond 3m but bred for the job and bonus of overnight rain, which will not suit another runner from Welsh Wales, John Flint’s Amateur (twice won West Wales National).
TRUCKERS LODGE Three times in the first four in this race and won the London National the last day.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6 Autonomous Cloud, 11.5 Iwilldoit, 17 The Big Breakaway
HEROICS NO LONGER HIDDEN
⭕ 3.00 Leopardstown This €110,000 Listed chase brings two young improvers on to the seniors stage, getting weight from the established players. Both 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Meetingofthewaters has suddenly stepped forward over fences under Willie Mullins, since switching stables.
Jody Ted is on a hat-trick, promising a further step up, thrown in the last day over hurdles but still sub-11st as a chaser.
⭕ 3.09 Kempton Tea Clipper is on a 12-race losing run and The Little Yank is only 1-17 over fences.
Hidden Heroics lost his form when being prepared for the Scottish National but is back in the winner’s enclosure.
Enrilo could surprise; set to bounce back around a stone below the mark when he was expected to do well.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Chepstow
🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win BURDETT ROAD
(3pts win saver HARSH)
2.30 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 7pts win BOOTHILL
2.50 Chepstow (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 10pts win AUTONOMOUS CLOUD
BET 5pts win IWILLDOIT
BET 3pts win THE BIG BREAKAWAY
3.00 Leopardstown (win 20 each)
BET 2.25pts win JODY TED
BET 2.25pts win MEETINGOFTHEWATERS
3.09 Kempton (win 20, win 10)
BET 2pts win ENRILO
BET 2pts win HIDDEN HEROICS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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