SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s matches starting with LUTON v CHELSEA at 12.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LUTON TOWN V CHELSEA
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming over the busy New Year period on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have another busy weekend ahead, and we have six fixtures to enjoy on Saturday. We start the day with Luton hosting Chelsea; this is another fixture that Chelsea should win on paper, but we’ve said that countless times this season about Chelsea! They still sit in mid-table, another disappointing loss away to Wolves on Christmas Eve. That meant they’ve lost their last four away Premier League games. They meet a Luton side who must be buzzing after putting two wins together against Newcastle and Sheffield United. Those wins have definitely put them in the mix to stay up; they would have been disappointed to see Nottingham Forest beat Newcastle on Boxing Day though! I know Everton are the closest side to them now, but based on performance levels it would be a big shock if Everton went down; the only side Luton can realistically catch is Nottingham Forest. As I said prior to that Sheffield United v Luton game; the winner was only going to give themselves a chance to actually get back into the mix to stay up; there’s still so much work to do.
Luton will fancy this fixture though – we all know Chelsea have been there for the taking this season! Chelsea did manage to get over the line on Wednesday night against Crystal Palace, but even then they needed an 89th minute penalty and it’s just hard to have confidence in Chelsea this season. They still lack a natural goal scorer up front, however their average xG created is pretty much mid-table standard. All that being said, they are playing at a much better level than Luton and they come into this game odds on. Chelsea are 1.66 with Luton 5.7 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Luton’s stats are very poor – they are averaging an xG created under 1.0 and conceding an average of 1.80 which is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League. I know they beat Newcastle here, but they have been all over the place away from home. While backing Chelsea has to come with a wealth warning these days, at 1.66 I feel they are worth a small bet – they should outclass this Luton side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea to beat Luton Town at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutChe
ASTON VILLA V BURNLEY
3pm We have a busy Saturday afternoon with four fixtures kicking off at 3pm. We begin with Aston Villa hosting Burnley. After such an impressive and positive start to the season, Aston Villa have dropped points in their last two games and they need a win to steady the ship. Obviously it was huge disappointing to lose their home winning streak against Sheffield United who have been the worst side in the Premier League this season. It’s almost hard to believe that Villa beat Manchester City and Arsenal back-to-back only to drop points against Sheffield United! They lost away to Old Trafford on Tuesday night and that was a bitter blow as well considering that they were 2-0, especially as United have been so average this season too. Villa did created the better chances against Sheffield United, but an average xG of 1.56 at home against Sheffield United just isn’t good enough considering their average xG conceded is 1.91 which is the highest figure in the Premier League. Despite those blips, Villa have still been excellent overall this season. They went off as very short favourites to beat Sheffield United but favourite backers got their fingers burnt – it’s interesting to see them trading much higher here.
Aston Villa are trading 1.39 with Burnley 9.6 and the draw is 5.6 at the time of writing. It was a poor run to Christmas for Burnley with their chances of staying up now looking bleak. After two wins back-to-back, Luton have given themselves a chance with Burnley now four points behind Luton having played a game more. I still feel that if the bottom three is to change, they can only catch Nottingham Forest who have a new manager and recorded a Boxing Day win so that might not happen. Burnley were really talked up heading into this season after their excellent Championship win, however they just haven’t been good enough. Their average xG created is just 0.94 – one of only three sides with an average xG under 1.0, and they are the bottom three too! They have been poor at the back too, they average xG conceded is the joint-fourth worst in the Premier League. I couldn’t put anyone off including Villa in their Acca this weekend, and I feel that they can cover the handicap here too. They are trading 2.02 -1.5 goals and that looks like a nice position. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstBrn
CRYSTAL PALACE V BRENTFORD
3pm Next we have Crystal Palace hosting Brentford. These two played on Wednesday night with Crystal Palace losing away to Chelsea and Brentford losing at home to Wolves. The Brentford result was very surprising; they lost 4-1 and would have started that game at around evens (2.0). Brentford have been pretty poor this season, and they’re actually just four points away from the relegation zone at the start of this weekend. They are far too good to go down, but they have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season and finding wins hard to come by. Given the recent developments with wins for Luton and Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace are now in danger of being dragged into the relegation zone. I still feel that if Luton are to come out of the bottom three then Nottingham Forest will take their place, however Crystal Palace are only one point ahead of Nottingham Forest and have to be included in the conversation. Their average xG created of 1.12 is the fifth worst in the Premier League – it’s no surprise that Sheffield United, Luton Town, Burnley, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace have the worst five attack figures in that order.
This should be an interesting game; I would suggest it’s a game that gives Crystal Palace an excellent chance to just stop that relegation battle talk for the moment. Brentford are there for the taking this season, the question is are Crystal Palace good enough to take advantage. The home side come into the game as the favourites at 2.39 with Brentford 3.45 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Brentford have lost six of their last seven Premier League games, the only win coming at home to Luton too. Away from home they are conceding more than they are creating, and it’s hard to be positive about them here. Crystal Palace have been poor too however; their average xG created at home is just 1.07 – they are actually creating more away from home. They are also conceding more chances than that here as well. They’ve gone eight Premier League games without a win, and only one win in twelve which was against Burnley. Both sides are poor at the back however, and Both teams To Score looks a very nice position at 1.96 compared to anything in the match odds market. We should see chances at both ends and plenty of mistakes.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CrlBre
MANCHESTER CITY V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We have the shortest price of the Premier League weekend here as Manchester City host Sheffield United. City had a reasonably restful Christmas period – they won the FIFA Club World Cup and then didn’t have to play on Boxing Day. Anything bar a comfortable City win here would be a complete shock, and City need to put a winning run together in the Premier League. In fairness, if they won their two games in hand on Liverpool they would only be two points behind Klopp’s men, that’s not even worrying about Arsenal who have been impressive at the back this season. Arsenal’s average xG conceded this season is only 0.91 which is the best defensive record in the Premier League and it will be interesting to see do they learn anything from the run-in last season. In terms of Pep Guardiola and Manchester City, they have been in this position before and won the title; but it has to be all business from here. They leaked some very sloppy goals prior to Christmas, and that has to stop.
It’s hard to see Sheffield United troubling them. Sheffield United have comfortably been the worst side in the Premier League this season. Their average xG created is only 0.76 which is the worst attacking record, and their average xG conceded of 1.91 is the worst defensive figure! Where do you even start when you have issues all over the place. Manchester City come into this game as short as 1.09 and who can blame the market – it’s extremely difficult to see past a home win here. With City so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. City’s average xG created of 1.99 compared to Sheffield United’s figure at the back means only one thing here; goals and lots of them! I like Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more goals and win) at 2.3 in the Correct Score market. The break will have done City good in my opinion, and they can come back to Premier League action with a bang here against the hapless Sheffield United.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciShu
WOLVES V EVERTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Everton. These two were also in action on Wednesday night, Wolves had a brilliant 4-1 win away to Brentford while Everton got beaten 3-1 at home by Manchester City. You can forgive Everton that loss easily, and although they start this weekend only one point outside the relegation zone it was still be a shock if they went down given their performance level. If they got their ten point deduction back, they’d actually be sitting above Chelsea. Their average xG created of 1.56 is above the likes of Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United – they should have no problem moving up the table and away from danger. However, you also have to say that they are under pressure – it’s one thing playing good football but they still have to get the results. If they lost here and Luton won, they’d drop into the bottom three and have all that negativity around the club so their league position can play tricks on the mind after the ten point deduction. From an Everton point of view, it was actually good they got it this year when they are playing so well. The last two seasons it would have sent them down no question.
This is going to be a very competitive game, and it’s no surprise that this is the most competitive market of the weekend. Wolves are marginal favourites at the time of writing but there’s only four ticks between the sides. Wolves are trading 2.78 with Everton 2.82 and the draw is 3.4. Wolves have been struggling to create decent chances at home – they are actually creating more away from home, however you have to give them massive credit for grinding out results. Their average xG created at home is only 1.08 but they have beaten Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester City here! When the sides met earlier in the season, Wolves won 1-0 but Everton finished that game with an xG of 1.85 and should have won. Away from home, they are marginally conceding more than they are creating though and I just see a very close and competitive game here whatever angle you look at it from. The draw is the appealing bet at 3.4 in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolEvr
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm The Manchester United show continues as they travel to take on Nottingham Forest to finish the day! There never seems to be a dull moment with United these days; after finding themselves 2-0 down at half-time at home to Aston Villa they managed to turn it around and win 3-2. Rasmus Hojlund scored his first Premier League goal, and Old Trafford went mental. Of course, it’s not the first time United have come back from 2-0 down at Old Trafford this season – they actually did it against Nottingham Forest early in the season! United have looked quite average at times this season, and it has definitely been a major rollercoaster for the fans. At times they have looked all over the place, and the reality is you never know what type of performance you’re going to get from certain players. I think at this stage we’ve seen this show enough to suggest Erik ten Hag needs time, and what United really need is to put an end to player power since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. On paper, United will be expected to win here but you can just never trust this United side.
That’s reflected in the odds too. Manchester United are the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on and there are plenty of willing layers. United are trading 2.36 with Nottingham Forest 3.15 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. As I said above when speaking about the relegation battle, I feel the only way Luton survive is if they catch Nottingham Forest. From that point of view, their recent win against Newcastle was badly needed – especially away from home. That put an end to seven Premier League games without a win. The problem for Forest this season has been going forward however; their average xG created is just 0.94 – one of only three sides with an average xG of under 1.0. That being said, you just know that they will get plenty of chances against this United side, especially away from home. United’s stats away from home have been exceptionally poor. Their average xG created is only 1.18 and their average conceded is a whopping 1.79. I feel the game will be closer than the odds suggest, and I’m happy with a small United lay despite Forest being so average this season.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NttMun
