WEDNESDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v MALLORCA and GIRONA v ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V MALLORCA
6.15pm La Liga is back in full flow, and we have a cracking evening on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Wednesday! We have a massive night ahead with the top three sides in action – Girona v Atletico Madrid will be a huge game later, but we start the evening with Real Madrid hosting Mallorca. Everyone will expect a comfortable home win here, and the market is expecting it too. Real Madrid are trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing which is the shortest price in La Liga this week. If you fancy a shock, Mallorca are 15.0 and the draw is 7.2. Real Madrid moved to the top of the table on goal difference for Christmas after Girona had to settle for a draw away to Real Betis. Girona have been fantastic this season, but it’s also fair to say everyone is expecting Real to take over. Maybe this run is where that starts; most Real fans will still see Barcelona has a bigger threat than Girona given the history and Real have a very nice seven point cushion over them which is a lot considering how good Real have been this season. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides, and it’s hard to see past a Real win here.
With Real trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Mallorca went into Christmas five points off the relegation zone, but they aren’t going to be in a relegation battle in my opinion – they are too good for that. However, there are some major red flags in their under-lining numbers. Their average xG created is only 1.08 which is the joint-fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga. They have been keeping things reasonably tight at the back, but that has obviously come at a cost going forward. Compare that to Real’s average xG created of 1.95 which is very impressive; their average xG conceded of 1.13 is the best defensive figure in the league. The stats scream a Real Madrid clean sheet here, and Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.64. Mallorca have failed to find the target in six of their last nine La Liga games, and they face the best defensive side in the league here too – the 1.64 is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaMal
GIRONA V ATLETICO MADRID
8.30pm Next we have the highlight of the week in La Liga as Girona host Atletico Madrid. This is the next massive test for Girona in their title challenge that everyone is just waiting to fall apart. To get to this stage of the season level on points with Real Madrid is an incredible achievement and you have to give Girona massive credit – they just keep grinding out results. It’s fixtures like this that can give them massive belief if they get a win – just like their recent win over Barcelona. Looking at their under-lining numbers, you would expect them to drop off the pace over the next month or two. However, they’ve built up quite a cushion in the top four race and I would be surprised if they couldn’t hang onto that. Their average xG of 1.55 is in the top five attacking figures and they have been massively over-performing in front of goal. Their average goals scored works out at 2.33 – Girona are the biggest over-performing side in La Liga by quite a distance but that is to be expected really given they were in the Segunda not long ago! What makes this game interesting, is that Atletico Madrid are the second most over-performing side in front of goal! Their average xG created is 1.48 but their actual figure is 2.0.
A fascinating game awaits, and we have an open market too. Girona are the favourites at 2.66 with Atletico Madrid 278 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. There really isn’t much between the sides; for example on overall performance figures Girona are +0.11 and Atletico Madrid are +0.09. I feel the key element here will be home advantage for Girona; Atletico Madrid are conceding more than they are creating away from home and all their issues have come away from home too. Their four losses in La Liga have come away from home this season – they’ve only actually dropped points once at home. At home, Girona have been creating a lot but more importantly they have been rock solid at the back. They have leaked a lot more chances away from home, but with home advantage they can get the job done here. The 2.66 is worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Girona to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GrnAtl
