MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATALANTA v FROSINONE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATALANTA V FROSINONE
7.45pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A this week as Atalanta host Frosinone. We have two sides from opposite ends of the table here who would dearly love a win. Atalanta would consider themselves in the top four race as they started this matchday just four points off Fiorentina in fourth while Frosinone are on the edge of the relegation battle. They had a four point cushion on the bottom three; their under-lining numbers are average but there are worse sides!
While the sides are at opposite ends of the table, they are also at opposite end of performance levels. Atalanta have an average xG created of 1.57 which is the third best attacking figure in Serie A, while for Frosinone it’s only 1.12 which is the fifth worst attacking figure. Atalanta have been a lot more solid at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.19 while Frosinone have the fourth worst average xG conceded in Serie A at 1.56. It’s no surprise that Frosinone are in the relegation battle, but as I said above there are worse sides than them. They won Serie B easily last season, but their sole aim this season was always going to be staying in Serie A.
As we have seen with Burnley in the Premier League this season, winning the second tier easily doesn’t always translate into the top tier. Atalanta will be fully expected to win here given the gulf in class between the sides, and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.45 with Frosinone 8.4 and the draw is 5.1. Atalanta have been very solid at the back at home this season, their average xG conceded at home is only 1.10 and only Juventus, Inter Milan and Napoli have taken points off them at home.
Before we considering lumping on Atalanta though, Frosinone actually beat them when they had home advantage earlier in the season. That was matchday two – Atalanta will say that they were unlucky as they had an xG created of 1.95 but they didn’t take their chances. Frosinone have been struggling to create a lot of chances away from home – their average xG created away is just 1.07 and they actually haven’t managed a league win away from home this season.
It’s hard to see past a home win here; Frosinone just haven’t played well away from home. I wouldn’t put anyone off the 1.45 on the home win, but I feel Atalanta can score a few goals here. I can see them covering the 1.5 goal handicap which is trading a very attractive 2.23!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Atalanta -1.5 goals to beat Frosinone at 2.23 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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