IT’S WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN: Daqman continued his winner-a-day sequence for the fourth day running yesterday with The Gypsy Davey (WON 7-4), his staking plan keeping him on the right side. Daqman naps are five out of seven (see yesterday).
DUBLIN FESTIVAL PREVIEWS: Today Daqman checks out his Fortune Cookies and Cheltenham ante-post bets, as he previews the weekend Dublin Festival at Leopardstown.
FACT TO CHELTENHAM FILE..
⭕ 3.35 Leopardstown, Saturday (Irish Gold Cup) 🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE Fastorslow is also entered in Sunday’s Dublin Chase but trainer Martin Brassil is keen for another clash with Galopin Des Champs.
Willie Mullins’ Galopin winner of last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup was beaten by Fastorslow in the Punchestown version in April and it was the same story in the John Durkan on their reappearance.
Meanwhile, 🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE Gentlemansgame stepped up to 3m for the first time over fences and beat 2022 King George winner, Bravemansgame, in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in November.
⭕ 1.10 Leopardstown, Sunday (2m 5f novice chase): With Gaelic Warrior more likely to run in the Irish Arkle on Saturday, and Embassy Gardens a winning supernap for us last weekend, Fact To File seems to be the Willie Mullins’ selected.
The J P McManus seven-year-old, never out of the first two, was runner-up in the Cheltenham bumper in March, and filled the same position behind one of Sunday’s rivals, American Mike, on his chasing debut at Navan.
But the step up to the Leopardstown CD on his second run back since March marked him down an exciting horse ahead of the norm, sauntering home 17 lengths.
🔺 FORTUNE COOKIE Fact To File jumped powerfully and traveled the race well, and Sunday’s performance should see further development. He could stay at this trip in the Turners or step up again to the Brown Advisory (3m).
⭕ 2.10 Leopardstown, Sunday (Dublin Chase) Dinoblue, our 12.0 BETDAQ bet ante-post for the Champion Chase, requires improvement against the hot favourite for Cheltenham, El Fabiolo.
The stablemates wouldn’t have met here but bad weather in England and/or better prizemoney in Ireland prompted Willie Mullins to pull El Fabiolo out of a clash with Jonbon.
In fact the rescheduled Clarence House at Cheltenham on Saturday proved the undoing of Jonbon, who dropped off many a punter’s Cheltenham list with a moody display, lacking fluency and drive.
STILL THE DANCING QUEEN
⭕ 4.10 Newcastle The meeting survived their morning inspection but heavy ground is the order of the day and it will be attritional by the time of this closing mares’ handicap hurdle.
The value call on Betdaq Betting Exchange is certainly Atlantic Dancer – looking set to go off third favourite in a field of just four!
She slammed today’s better fancied rival Ip Up by 10 lengths at Kelso last time out and there seemed to be plenty left in the tank. On the same heavy ground I see no reason why that form shouldn’t be confirmed despite the 8lb swing in the weights.
In fact, the differential in price today between the pair (two and half times at early morning prices) looks ludicrous.
The fly in the ointment is obviously likely market leader Golden Glance who has run well enough on soft ground previously but has so far yet to encounter heavy. She comes into this on the back of a good second at Aintree but that’s more than factored into her price and her only win to date (9 starts) has come on good to soft ground.
MOUNTAIN NOT TOO HIGH
⭕ 6.30 Southwell The pick of the night is this class 3 handicap in which the remarkably consistent Smoky Mountain can win again for trainer Charlie Fellowes.
His career form reads 422121 and the most recent second should have been another win as he had a nightmare run at Wolverhampton.
Obviously his run of form hasn’t gone unnoticed by the handicapper who has put him up another 5lb but he could be even more effective over tonight’s mile trip which he is facing for the first time.
He won going away over seven furlongs last time out and I think he’s more than capable of handling the triple ‘going up’ factors of trip, class and weight.
Eligible looks the biggest danger. He’s hard to beat around Southwell (4 from 8 strike-rate) and goes well for Joanna Mason.
He was value for much more than the official three quarters of a length margin over course and distance last time and therefore the resulting 3lb rise might not be that harsh. There’s little downside in leaving him out of calculations for a WIN 10 return.
EL OF A NAP
⭕ 8.00 Southwell El Hibri looks set to record another course and distance success as there was a definite signal of a return to form last time out at Wolverhampton with a close up fourth off today’s same mark.
Trainer Ian Williams is also in pretty good form and despite El Hibri having plenty of all-weather experience this will be only his start at Southwell.
The defection of both Kaidu and South Dakota Sioux makes this much easier for the selection (and nap) and it says plenty about the race that Asadjumeirah is probably the biggest danger. That one is on a losing run of 32!
DAQMAN’S BETS:
4.10 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 2.4pts win ATLANTIC DANCER
6.30 Southwell (both win 10)
BET 3.3pts win SMOKY MOUNTAIN
BET 1.4pts win ELIGIBLE
8.00 Southwell (win 10 nap)
BET 7.1pts win EL HIBRI
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