FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews HEIDENHEIM v DORTMUND and ATHLETIC BILBAO v MALLORCA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HEIDENHEIM V DORTMUND
7.30pm The fixtures from Europe just keep coming on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! After an excellent Wednesday and Thursday night from La Liga, we’re back to our usual Friday night football slot of one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We start the evening in the Bundesliga with Heidenheim hosting Dortmund – no doubt Manchester United fans have been “annoyed” by the improvement from Sancho since leaving but from a Dortmund point of view he has brought them to life. They went into the winter break six points off the top four and I really felt that they would struggle to break back into the top four given Stuttgart and RB Leipzig were playing better football. Any thought of that is now gone as they have quickly overtaken RB Leipzig who have opened the door for Dortmund with three losses since the winter break. Dortmund have gone from six points behind to three points ahead! In fairness to RB Leipzig, they have had a difficult fixture list and no doubt the race isn’t over yet. Most casual football fans will assume Stuttgart will drop out as the season goes on because they finished in the relegation playoff spot, but Stuttgart actually have a higher average xG created than Dortmund and are level with RB Leipzig.
Dortmund have come back with a bang though, Sancho is creating chances and looks full of confidence. Whatever happened at Manchester United was a shame, but here we are. Dortmund have scored at least three goals in their three games, but you have to note that they have had an easy fixture list. Darmstadt, Koln and Bochum are all towards the bottom of the table – they have another side here that they should beat on paper in Heidenheim but they sit in mid-table. The Bundesliga new boys have settled in well, but they are massively over-performing in front of goals. Their average xG created is just 1.12 which is the fourth worst figure in the league; you would be worried about them in their second season! Their average xG conceded of 1.71 is the third worst defensive figure as well, and with Dortmund full of confidence they look like a very good bet here at 1.79. I know they struggled before Christmas, but Heidenheim are there for the taking and obviously Dortmund have all the momentum – I’d have them closer to 1.7.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Dortmund to beat Heidenheim at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HeiDor
ATHLETIC BILBAO V MALLORCA
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish the evening as Athletic Bilbao host Mallorca. This is a must win game for Athletic Bilbao to steady the ship after a loss against Valencia and a draw with Cadiz. They have fallen out of the top four and although it was unlikely that they would stay there in fairness, they have gifted away points. Especially with Cadiz sitting in the relegation zone. In reality, there’s no need to panic for Bilbao – they still have the fourth highest average xG created in La Liga and after finishing in the spot just outside the European places last season, even Europa League would be a massive achievement for them. With Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid a lock for the top four, everyone else is only playing for one spot – that spot is going to go to Girona this season obviously. Sides like Bilbao can still benefit from Sevilla dropping down as they move into the European spots. On paper, this is a game they should win and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.54 with Mallorca 8.0 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Mallorca are only four points off the relegation zone, so they are under pressure this season. You could call them solid at the back, but that has come at a massive cost going forward. Their average xG created is only 1.09.
That’s the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga, and to make matters worse they aren’t even converting those chances. They are scoring less than a goal a game at the moment – only Cadiz are scoring less than that. They have had major issues away from home too; only winning once all season and that came against Celta Vigo who are below them in the table. Bilbao have been very strong at home this season – only Real Madrid have managed to beat them here. The sides drew 0-0 when they met earlier in the season, but I feel the change in home advantage is going to make a massive difference here. Bilbao have been exceptional at home – their average xG created is 1.79 and their average xG conceded is only 1.09 in front of their own fans. With Mallorca struggling on the road, the 1.54 is worth a confident bet on the home win.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Mallorca at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthMal
