SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games starting with EVERTON v TOTTENHAM at 12.30pm – all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week, and we have a fascinating Saturday ahead. We have five very interesting markets to go through, especially after the results midweek! We start the day with Everton hosting Spurs in the early kick off, and despite getting a draw away to Fulham on Tuesday night Everton dropped into the relegation zone thanks to a 4-0 win for Luton against Brighton. Not many saw that coming – they were even 3-0 up by half-time! Luton also have a game in hand on Everton, and despite Everton playing much better football this season they now find themselves under immense pressure. That ten point deduction was a lot to cope with – as I have said before, it would have relegated them the last two seasons but they have been playing such good football this season you thought they’d get away with it. Luton have definitely set the cat amongst the pigeons though! It will be interesting to see how they get on against Spurs here; Everton have definitely played better football at home this season. They haven’t done anything wrong to end up in the bottom three, it’s just circumstances really but they must surely be feeling the heat now.
Newcastle did Spurs a big favour in the Top Four race when beating Aston Villa midweek too, and Spurs will see this as a great chance to claim three points. We have an exceptionally open betting heat – Spurs are the favourites at 2.58 with Everton 2.78 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Ange Postecoglou has Spurs playing some excellent football this season, but they have been leaking chances too. Their average xG created is the fourth best in the Premier League; only behind Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal. Their average xG conceded is 1.44 however, and that’s actually marginally higher than Everton’s at 1.4! Obviously the difference between the sides has been going forward, but have definitely created more in front of their own fans. Although we have a very open market here, I would actually have Spurs a little bigger than their current 2.58. I wouldn’t put anyone off the lay option on Spurs, however I feel the Spurs price is making the draw good value at 3.75. On paper, we should have a very close game here and the 3.75 is an appealing bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveTtm
BRIGHTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have three fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Brighton hosting Crystal Palace. Brighton gave us one of the biggest shocks of the week with a 4-0 loss to Luton Town on Tuesday night! They weren’t massively odds on favourites away from home, but I think it was the manner in which they lost they surprised everyone. Luton blew them away in the first half; they were 3-0 up by half-time! Brighton have obviously made huge progress recently – they play European football now and their attacking figures are always good. The major issue for them this season has been at the back though. Because they play such an open game, they do give away chances and every so often that’s just going to go massively against them – we saw that earlier in the season with a 6-1 hammering by Aston Villa. They’ve only managed to keep two clean sheets in the Premier League this season – that was two 0-0 draws recently against West Ham and Wolves. They face one of the worst attacking sides in the Premier League here though, and it will be interesting to see how their defence holds up with home advantage.
When the sides met just before Christmas we had a 1-1 draw but Brighton finished the game with an xG created of 1.85 so they could have won the game. They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.67 with Crystal Palace 5.7 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Brighton have the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League this season so they clearly have no issues creating chances, with Crystal Palace only having an average xG created of 1.13 they should be able to handle them here. However, it’s hard to have confidence in Brighton – they’ve just conceded so many sloppy goals this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and Both Teams To Score is three ticks bigger at 1.78. Palace scoring is a worry here, but they did have an entertaining 3-2 win over Sheffield United midweek. Over 2.5 goals has won in six of the last seven Palace Premier League games, and with Brighton so open it looks the best position here at 1.75.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BhaCrl
BURNLEY V FULHAM
3pm Should we call this a must win game for Burnley? Their chances of staying up are looking even more bleak as the weeks go by. Luton starting to win games has really put Burnley on the backfoot – I have been saying for a few weeks that if Sheffield United, Burnley or Luton were going to get out of the bottom three I think Nottingham Forest will have to take their spot. Obviously Everton have now dropped into the relegation zone, and then of course we had the new manager bounce from Forest with wins over Newcastle and Manchester United. Those two wins were badly needed for Forest, but what it all adds up to is that Sheffield United are nailed on to go down, and Burnley are in massive trouble. I don’t think Burnley were ready for a relegation dogfight either – they weren’t really in the relegation conversation at the start of the season after they were so dominant in the Championship. The reality is they haven’t been good enough in the Premier League though; their average xG created and conceded are both the fourth worst figures in the league, put them together and you have major issues.
Burnley were away to Manchester City midweek, and obviously anything there can be viewed as a bonus. I think Burnley have to be targeting these games because these are the games that they have a realistic chance of winning. Fulham still come into the game as the favourites, but we have an open market. Fulham are trading 2.5 with Burnley 3.0 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. All of Fulham’s major issues this season have been away from home. They just haven’t been good enough, and haven’t actually won an away Premier League game since the opening weekend when they beat Everton 1-0. They have struggled to create chances – their average xG created is only 1.14 away from home and their average xG conceded is a very high 1.86. To make matters worse, they aren’t even taking those chances as they are scoring less than a goal a game away from home. Obviously Burnley aren’t a side you can trust, but this is definitely a game that is there for the taking for them. I’m going to keep stakes small, and have a small investment on the draw at 3.6. We have two poor sides here, and they might cancel each other out.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurFlm
NEWCASTLE V LUTON TOWN
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Newcastle hosting Luton. Both sides will come into this weekend buzzing after big games midweek. Newcastle did very well to beat Aston Villa away from home, especially with how good Villa have been this season at home. Luton shocked everyone with a 4-0 win over Brighton, and for the first time this season they now have a realistic chance of staying up. They are still odds on to go down, but it’s only marginally odds on now – a few weeks ago their chances looked bleak if you believed the markets. That win for Newcastle was also massive for them because it came away from home, and their issues away from home this season have been very well documented. It was actually only their second win in the Premier League away from home this season! Home form hasn’t been an issue for Newcastle this season, and they will be expected to win here. They come into the game as the red-hot favourites, the home win is trading 1.44 with Luton Town 8.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. The 1.44 on Newcastle is the shortest price in the Premier League this weekend. Manchester City are also very close to it – even the same price at the time of writing – to beat Brentford on Monday night.
Newcastle have been playing a very open game this season, and they have been leaking a lot of goals too. They are basically creating what they are conceding – their average xG created is 1.53 and their average conceded is 1.52. They have scored more goals than they should, but Luton will fancy their chances of at least putting Newcastle under pressure here. They’ve found their goal scoring touch and have some good momentum. The stats aren’t pretty for Luton though; their average xG created is still under 1.0 and their average conceded is still close to 2.0. I think this game screams goals; I can see Luton trying to attack and that will make for a very entertaining game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 and Both Teams To Score is also odds on at 1.81. Both prices are very appealing in my opinion, but I feel the Over 2.5 goals option is the best as it allows for a big Newcastle win rather than relying on a Luton goal.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLut
SHEFFIELD UNITED V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with Sheffield United hosting Aston Villa. Both sides lost on Tuesday night in entertaining games, but it was definitely more of a setback for Aston Villa. They are in the Top Four race, while Sheffield United must be used to losing at this stage nailed to the bottom of the Premier League. A change in manager hasn’t really had an impact or changed anything – they didn’t get that bounce like Nottingham Forest. Sheffield United have obviously been trying to “have a go” recently because their recent games have had a lot more goals in them. The reality is that they have been good enough for the Premier League – their average xG created is only 0.81 which is the worst attacking figure in the Premier League, and they also have the worst defensive figure at 1.84. That gives them an overall figure of -1.03 which is the worst performance figure from the major leagues in Europe. If you actually look at all the figures from Europe, only Gladbach in the Bundesliga have an xG conceded similar to Sheffield United. No one else has been that bad going forward or at the back.
Despite all that, Sheffield United actually picked up a draw recently away to Aston Villa. They stopped Villa’s long winning run at home which included Manchester City and Arsenal – Villa went into that game trading in the low 1.2’s and favourite backers definitely had their fingers burnt! Villa have a score to settle in that regard, and they come into this game as the odds on favourites again. They are trading 1.67 at the time of writing with Sheffield United 5.6 and the draw is 4.4. Although Villa suffered a major setback when losing 3-1 to Newcastle on Tuesday night, they didn’t play that badly. They actually finished the game with a higher xG figure, they just didn’t take their chances and Newcastle benefitted from a crazy five minutes in the first half scoring twice. There really isn’t anything positive to say about Sheffield United, and I feel the 1.67 on Villa is worth a Max Bet here. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides and I’d have Villa sub 1.6.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Aston Villa to beat Sheffield United at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheAvl
