TUESDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews the FA Cup replay between PLYMOUTH ARGYLE v LEEDS including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE V LEEDS
7.45pm The FA Cup Fourth Round replays kick off on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Tuesday night. We have five replays over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday with three on Tuesday and two on Wednesday. The focus on Tuesday night will be the all Championship TV clash between Plymouth Argyle and Leeds. Just looking at the Championship table you could say Leeds would be disappointed to be here; there’s a whopping 24 points between them in the table, and in fairness that opinion would be right.
Leeds absolutely bossed the game when the sides met – they finished with an xG of over 2.0 and conceded an xG of under 1.0, but Plymouth Argyle were able to grind out a 1-1 draw and now have home advantage. This should be an interesting tie; home advantage for Plymouth Argyle will surely bring the sides closer together. However, Leeds are still the firm favourites. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.71 with Plymouth Argyle trading 5.0 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing.
Leeds have been having a superb season in the Championship. Leicester look to be running away with the title, but there was only two points between Southampton, Leeds and Ipswich in the race for second after the weekend results. Leeds have played one game more than Southampton and Ipswich, but you’d expect that battle to go right to the final day. Whatever happens all sides are sure of a playoff spot at least, but nobody wants that drama when you could just claim second and head straight to the Premier League!
For Plymouth Argyle, they are a low-mid-table side in the Championship. Too far away to majorly worry about the relegation battle but a pretty average side. They have won their last two games and that has pushed them up the table – they are “only” eight points off the bottom three but there’s so many sides between them and trouble they won’t go down. They’ve actually been hard to beat recently – they’ve only lost once in their last nine Championship games. Leeds beat them 2-1 earlier in the season when they had home advantage but Plymouth Argyle have been creating much more at home this season.
They have been playing a very open game at home. Their average xG created is 1.66 and their average conceded is 1.46. Compare that average created to their away form at 1.15 and you can see where their problems have been. Leeds have the second highest average xG in the Championship this season, and they have also been the best side at the back – the only side in the Championship with an average xG conceded of under 1.0. It’s hard to knock them, and I’d fancy them for the second spot come the end of the season.
With Plymouth Argyle at home, I’d expect an open game and plenty of chances. I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.71 on Leeds, however I really like goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 and I feel this game screams goals. Both Teams To Score is also worth mentioning at around 1.61 but I prefer the Overs – at the odds it’s worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PlyLee
