WEDNESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s two games between PORTO v ARSENAL and NAPOLI v BARCELONA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PORTO V ARSENAL
8pm The Champions League action continues on Wednesday night with two crackers on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Once again, it’s such a shame that the two fixtures kick off at the same time. Anyway, we kick off the night with Porto hosting Arsenal – you’d have to say Arsenal would have been delighted with the draw considering who they could have got. They’ll be fully expected to progress here into the Quarter-Finals. Arsenal come into this game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.74 with Porto 5.7 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Porto done exceptionally well in their Group – they finished level on points with Barcelona but in fairness they would have been disappointed not to go through with the other two sides being Shakhtar Donetsk and Antwerp. They’ve been off the pace in Portugal this season though, they currently sit in third and that’s pretty much in line with the under-lining numbers too. They have the third best attacking figure, and the second best record at the back. Obviously there is a huge gulf in class between where the clubs play their domestic football though! It’s hard to see past an Arsenal win here, the only worry being that Arsenal would be happy enough with a draw here too.
With no away goals rule anymore, that has definitely changed the dynamic of Champions League knockout games. I would suggest Arsenal should just go for it here; they are much better than Porto on paper and they can outclass them. Arsenal would have been delighted to see Manchester City drop points at the weekend in the Premier League, and they currently have the third best attacking figure while having the best defensive record too. Essentially Arsenal are creating more and conceding less than Porto in a much tougher league. I’d have Arsenal a little shorter than 1.74 here, especially with them coming into the game in such good form and full of confidence. They went through their wobble over the Christmas and New Year period with just one win in five Premier League games, but they’ve won their last five games and some of the score lines were the likes of 5-0 twice and 6-0. They’ve been playing with a lot of freedom going forward and they can outgun this Porto side. Porto had plenty of action in most of their Group games, however Barcelona did “only” beat them 1-0 away from home. The Arsenal win is a better bet than the goals market in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Porto at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PorArs
NAPOLI V BARCELONA
8pm We finish Wednesday night with a European blockbuster. The current Serie A Champions take on the current La Liga Champions, however both Napoli and Barcelona have been well off the pace in their bids to claim back-to-back titles this season! This should be a Champions League classic nevertheless, and there’s a lot of food for thought in their under-lining numbers. Napoli are currently a whopping 27 points behind league leaders Inter Milan in Italy this season; one of the most remarkable stats in football this season is that Napoli have the best average xG created in Serie A. On paper they are the best attacking side, and they also have the joint-second best defensive figure, yet they are sitting in mid-table. So, what’s going wrong? Napoli are clearly the biggest under-performing side in Serie A this season; their average xG created is 1.86 but their actual goals scored works out at only 1.38. They just aren’t taking their chances and they are paying the full price. Barcelona aren’t quite in a similar situation as they currently sit in third in La Liga, so at least we know they’ll be back in the Champions League next season, however they can also say that they haven’t been getting the results their performances deserve. The difference is though they have been way more sloppy at the back, and that’s where they have been having their issues.
It’s going to be very interesting to see how this one plays out. We have an exceptionally open market too, there’s only six ticks between the sides at the time of writing with Barcelona marginal favourites at 2.7 while Napoli at 2.76 and the draw is 3.6. Napoli dropped more points at the weekend with a 1-1 draw here against Genoa – once again they dominated the game and just couldn’t find a goal until the 90th minute to level things up. They finished the game with an xG of 2.52! It is hard to have confidence in Napoli; I mean how many times do we give them a chance to finally start taking their chances and scoring goals? However, we have a home side here who have been creating a huge amount against an away side who have been leaking more goals than they should be and have been sloppy at the back in general. Given the situation I’m keen to keep stakes small because it is hard to trust Napoli, however based on their performances I would have them as the marginal favourites here. The 2.76 looks the value position in my opinion, and perhaps the Champions League can focus them with their hopes of achieving something in Italy already gone.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Napoli to beat Barcelona at 2.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapBar
