FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews FREIBURG v BAYERN MUNICH and LAZIO v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V BAYERN MUNICH
7.30pm We have a fantastic Friday night from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! We have two fascinating fixtures from the Bundesliga and Serie A to enjoy. We kick off the night in the Bundesliga with Freiburg hosting Bayern Munich. All the headlines recently have involved Bayern Munich, and they’ve all been for the wrong reasons unfortunately. It’s a massive little period coming up for the club; they need another domestic win to steady the ship before going into a massive Champions League game next week where they are 1-0 down from the first leg. Everyone will be expecting them to bounce back and hammer Lazio with home advantage, but things just haven’t worked out for Bayern recently. Obviously it was a huge positive that Bayern were able to beat RB Leipzig last weekend; that was a tricky game off the back of three losses. It was a pretty even game but a 91st minute winner is always good for morale; it must be an odd situation with the Bundesliga title very likely gone and Thomas Tuchel going at the end of the season too. He could quite easily lose the dressing room for the final few weeks, but the Champions League will focus minds I’m sure.
Bayern will be fully expected to win here, Freiburg have been on a poor run lately and their xG figures are very average. Bayern are trading odds on 1.52 with Freiburg 6.4 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. Freiburg have only managed one win from their last eight Bundesliga games, they’ve gone five games now without a win too. While I do feel the title is gone for Bayern now, they aren’t going to close an eight point gap on Bayer Leverkusen who have been superb this season. It might be interesting to see what XI Tuchel opts to play with the Champions League game on Tuesday but there’s a decent gap with this fixture moving to Friday night. Obviously Bayern have been a little off colour lately, but I do feel the 1.52 is too big here – I just won’t go crazy with the stakes. Freiburg have an average xG created of only 1.18 which is in the bottom six attacking figures wise this season. They do create more at home so that is a positive, but there’s a massive gulf in class between the sides here and I’d have Bayern sub 1.5 rather than 1.52.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat Freiburg at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FreByn
LAZIO V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move to Serie A to finish Friday night as Lazio host AC Milan. This is always an interesting game, but you do get the feeling that we’ll have a classic Italian cagey affair here. Lazio will surely have one eye on the Champions League clash with Bayern Munich on Tuesday, and AC Milan have a Europa League game on Thursday too. I thought AC Milan might actually challenge Juventus for second spot but a loss to Monza and then a draw at home to Atalanta left the gap at four points. Lazio were also in action on Monday night, and they suffered a big blow to their chances of European football next season with a loss against Fiorentina. Obviously Lazio aren’t going to be good enough for a top four spot this season, but they sit down in eighth heading into this weekend so they could easily miss out on Europa League football too. AC Milan have a five point cushion on fourth spot, so you’d have to say this is a more important game for Lazio – I know they massively over-performed for second place last season but they just need a result here to avoid slipping further into mid-table. In fairness, their performance level has been average all season – their average xG created is as low as 0.94 which is the second worst attacking figure in Serie A. Basically the only reason they sit as high as they do in the table is that they have been solid at the back.
We have a reasonably open market, but AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.35 with Lazio 3.45 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. AC Milan started the season quite slowly performance wise, but they grinded out plenty of results and then started playing much better football. Their average xG created is fifth best in Serie A; that level also holds up away from home which is obviously important here. Lazio have been really poor going forward this season, so it’s hard to have any confidence in them. Even at home their average xG created is less than 1.0. I couldn’t put anyone off the 2.35 on AC Milan but this game screams a low scoring affair to me. Lazio have been rock solid at the back as well as poor going forward; Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 and to be honest I was surprised to see it trading so high when I clicked into the market. At the prices it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LziAcm
