SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v REAL BETIS, NAPOLI v JUVENTUS and ATHLETIC BILBAO v BARCELONA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL BETIS
3.15pm We have blockbuster Sunday straight out of the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from Europe this week! We have three top class games from La Liga and Serie A to enjoy; it’s even hard to pick a favourite fixture. We kick off the action in La Liga with Atletico Madrid hosting Real Betis. This is a game that Atletico should win, but they’ve had a poor week after getting knocked out of the Copa del Rey at the Semi-Final stage on Thursday night. They were massively up against it already 1-0 down and then away from home in the second leg, but their away performance level just hasn’t inspired confidence all season. They will be a lot more comfortable at home here, and they face an average Real Betis side who have been stuck in that sixth spot for a while now. When Sevilla dropped out of the top four, they would have been the natural favourites after their strong fifth placing and a Copa del Rey win. They have gone backwards since though – they are still a side that will challenge for the European spots, but they are massively off the top four now. This is a game that Atletico should win, and they are the odds on favourites.
The home win is trading 1.59 with Real Betis 6.4 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. Both sides have the exact same average xG conceded at 1.37, but Atletico have been the better side going forward. Their average xG created is 1.56 compared to Betis at 1.36. As you can see, Betis are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating but there’s nothing in it – it’s just a case of that level isn’t good enough for Europa League spots really. Home advantage is going to be a massive fact here; the performance level for Betis drops dramatically away from home. They have issues going forward and at the back. Additionally to that, Atletico have only dropped points once at home in La Liga this season – all their other dropped points have come away from home. Atletico have been conceding some chances this season, so I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here but the 1.59 looks a nice position – I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a home win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Real Betis at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlBet
NAPOLI V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We move over to Serie A next for a cracker as Napoli host Barcelona. I would have said this is the highlight of the day, but Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona is also a cracking fixture tonight over in La Liga. Juventus finally got back to winning ways last time out against Frosinone and that put an end to a four game run without a win. That left them nine points behind Inter, but that lead was extended to 12 midweek when inter won their game in hand. Fair to say that’s the title race over, but as anyone that looks at xG figures would have been expecting that gap to appear at some stage. Although the title race became a two horse race this season, there was a massive performance level difference between Inter and Juventus this season. Anyone who likes xG figures will also have to write a book about Napoli this season! The way things have gone for them this season is remarkable – they start the weekend sitting all the way down in ninth while having the best attacking figure in Serie A and also the second best defensive figure. You could make a case for Napoli “being the best” side in Italy this season just on pure numbers; obviously football isn’t just about creating chances though, it’s about converting them and putting the ball in the back of the net.
That’s been the massive issue for Napoli this season. They are one of the biggest under-performing sides in Serie A and as I keep saying, at what stage do we lose faith in them? They keep playing good football, but they keep dropping points. It’s actually hard to have a strong opinion on their games this season – you don’t want to take them on because they’re playing so well, you don’t want to back them because they aren’t scoring! They come into the game as the favourites at 2.52 with Juventus 3.35 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. Juventus have been quite poor away from home this season too, so you would naturally lean towards Napoli here, however it’s very likely that they dominate the game and fail to convert their chances again. This should be a fascinating game though, and I feel the draw offers the best value at 3.2. Juventus haven’t been creating as much away and it feels like Napoli have to create an xG of 3.0+ to score once these days! They can cancel each other out.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NapJvn
ATHLETIC BILBAO V BARCELONA
8pm We move back to La Liga for another cracker to finish an excellent Sunday. Athletic Bilbao host Barcelona fresh off a superb 3-0 win over Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey Semi-Final here on Thursday. They lead 1-0 heading into that second leg so they always had an advantage, but they put on an excellent display. Bilbao have been excellent at home all season, and it will be interesting to see how Barcelona get on given they have been sloppy at the back this season. We have an open market; Barcelona are the favourites at 2.52 with Athletic Bilbao 2.94 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Barcelona will be disappointed not to be closer in the title race – they have the exact same average xG created as Real Madrid but the massive difference is Barcelona have been very sloppy at the back this season. That’s why there’s an eight point gap starting the weekend. While Barcelona might be disappointed with their season, Athletic Bilbao will be absolutely delighted. They sit in fifth, actually look locked into that fifth spot too, and have a Copa del Rey Final to look forward too.
Considering Athletic Bilbao finish just one spot away from the European spots for the last two season, they will be buzzing with their season. As I said above, they have been excellent at home all season – their average xG created at home is 1.77 and their average conceded is only 1.10. Seriously impressive figures and while they’ve had some disappointing results away from home recently, that hasn’t been the case at home. They’ve only lost once at home all season, and that was against Real Madrid on the opening weekend. When Barcelona had home advantage earlier in the season they were able to grind out a 1-0 win, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.52 on Barcelona here to be honest. I know we have an open market, but I would have the market even more open with Barcelona bigger and Bilbao and the draw a little shorter. I do expect another tight game between these two so Under 2.5 goals is definitely an option, however I like the Barcelona lay here at 2.52. I just feel that’s too short and I’m happy to lay the away win to have Bilbao and the draw on our side.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Athletic Bilbao at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BilBAr
