TWO HOT FAVOURITES MISS FESTIVAL: Cheltenham next week opens without its leading star: last year’s winner, Constitution Hill, has had to be ruled out of the first big race of the meeting, the Champion Hurdle.
Arkle favourite Marine Nationale is also out of action, found lame in his box yesterday and diagnosed with a suspensory strain.
SIX WINNERS IN FOUR DAYS: Winner-a-day Daqman made it six strikes in four days with a 9-4 winner at Plumpton yesterday; all his winners were odds against.
Monday
WON 9-4 MI SUENO
Sunday
WON 5-2 LOUNGE LIZARD
Saturday
WON 15-2 HELTENHAM
WON 9-4 THUNDER ROCK
Friday
WON 3-1 SHADES OF SUMMER
WON 9-4 PENZANCE
LAYS LOGIC IN DAY-1 STRIKES
CHELTENHAM A WEEK TODAY: Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race every day, on the day, for next week’s Cheltenham Festival.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites have been defeated nine years out of 10 in the 5.30 NH Challenge Cup and 12 times out of 13 in the 4.50 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, which in the last decade has had winners at 10-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (three times) and 80-1.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 12 (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only two outright favourites have won in 14 seasons but only one winner has been bigger than 9-1 SP since 2013. Winning ages: 5 and 6 are 13/14. Ratings (last nine years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153, 153, 148, 150.
Willie Mullins has won this seven times among 14 Irish winners out of the last 23 (16 had raced in bumpers); 23 of the last 25 winners had won the last day; 11 of the last 14 had won a Graded contest.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites include Facile Vega (2023) 2nd at 9-4; Min (2016) 2nd 15-8; Getabird (2018) 11th 7-4 and Asterion Forlonge (2010) 4th 9-4.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: Nine favourites (seven odds-on) have won in the last 13 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7 (11 out of 12). Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144, 164, 159, 162.
Nicky Henderson has won four of the last 12; Willie Mullins is five from nine. Some 14 out of 16 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Ten out of 13 had between three and five (completed) chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) Ages 7 and 8: eight out of 13. Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139, 143, 140, 146.
Eleven winners of the last 13 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; 11 out of 13 had won over at least 3m.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) Nine winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7 won 10 out of 14.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165, 173. Trainers: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 4 in the last 14 years; 12 winners out of the 14 had previously won a Grade-1 hurdle.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) Seven SP favourites scored out of 13. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless a previous winner of the race.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158, 148, 140, 159. Trainers: Willie Mullins 9 out of 15; Henry De Bromhead currently two out of four.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Only one winning favourite in 13 years with most winners at enormous prices: 80-1, 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice), 18-1 and that’s only since 2012.
Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138, 125, 137, 125 with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 9lb. Trainers: Gordon Elliottt (3), Paul Nicholls (3).
LAYS LOGIC: 12 losing favourites sound good but recent favourites have started at up to 15-2, and you need strong nerves even with the short shots: for instance, Gaelic Warrior was beaten a short-head at 13-8 a year ago.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup) In the four years 2015 to 2018, this 4m amateurs’ chase produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden. But since 2020 the race has been reduced to 3m 6f.
Three SP favourites won (2011-13) but only one in the last 10 years. Ages: 7 and 8 are nine out of 13. Eleven out of 14 had won over at least 3m.
TWO SHOTS ON TARGET FOR TEQUILA
⭕ 2.20 Newcastle I’ll leave Lingfield out today. I was amazed it passed a morning inspection given the recent downpours in the south and the bad luck the course generally has with winter ground. But, it’s going ahead … for now. Officials are still ‘monitoring conditions’ in light of a revised weather forecast. All adds up sadly to Daqman putting the red line through that card.
Newcastle are also set to race over the jumps today on heavy ground. It’s hard not to get drawn in by Twoshotsoftequila who should defy the statutory 7lb penalty for his Catterick romp last week when he continued the good recent run of trainer Rebecca Menzies.
I was pleasantly surprised to see morning offers of around on the Betdaq Betting Exchange of 1.96 thinking he would be more in the 1.5 territory
His two rivals both have absences of over 300 days to overcome.
That shouldn’t be a problem for Equus Dancer who goes well fresh but he is close to a career high handicap mark wise and was last seen struggling around in the Grand National. Also, at the age of 10 he’s unlikely to be showing much improvement which he may need to do against an in form rival.
Your Own Story is also having his first start since a National – in his case the Scottish National where he finished a creditable sixth. He won’t lack anything in the stamina department but his first time out record isn’t quite as impressive as Equus Dancer who might prove the biggest danger to the nap in a race that, despite having just three go to post, looks an interesting start to the card.
CROSS THE LINE IN FRONT
⭕ 5.30 Southwell Eleanor Cross deserves a win having gone close in her last two races at Lingfield and Kempton and hasn’t done much wrong. She should be able to reverse form with her Lingfield conqueror Caustic – there was only a nose between them and there is now a significant 6lb swing in the weights.
It might not be quite as simple as the weights and measures department would think as, of the pair, Caustic is probably entitled to improve further but still on balance I expect the form to be reversed.
There’s a stack of lightly raced sorts and debutants that could trouble both of them including market positive Secret Squirrel who has winning hurdles form. His trainer Hughie Morrison is not in the best form currently though and I wonder whether this trip might prove on the sharp side?
DAY OF DESTINADO
⭕ 8.00 Southwell Destinado can make four wins from his last six starts and continue the excellent run of form for his trainer James Owen (three winners from his last five runners).
Destinado is out again quickly., under a penalty, after a comfortable success over 1m 3f here last week. He hasn’t totally convinced over this kind of trip before but arrives in much better form tonight.
Young Endless was challenging for morning favouritism but he is a 0-8 maiden who is now down in trip having finished a good third here last time over 2m.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Newcastle (win 10, nap)
BET 10.4pts win TWOSHOTSOFTEQUILA
5.30 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win ELEANOR CROSS
8.00 Southwell (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win DESTINADO
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