MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews CHELSEA v NEWCASTLE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V NEWCASTLE
8pm We have Monday Night Football to enjoy from the Premier League this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have a cracking fixture too as Chelsea host Newcastle – I’m sure there will be plenty of big opinion on either side of the market here with both sides really struggling this season. Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.95 at the time of writing with Newcastle 3.8 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. As we all know, Newcastle have had a lot of issues away from home this season, however Chelsea haven’t exactly been performing like a side you’d want to lump on at odds on!
There’s only four points between the sides as they both sit in mid-table. Both have had very disappointing seasons. Newcastle lived the dream in the Champions League this season, but the reality is they finished bottom of their Group after such a positive start and then they just haven’t been good enough in the Premier League this season – especially away from home. Eddie Howe must be feeling the heat, and he would have been gutted to see the FA Cup Quarter-Final draw against Manchester City! You’d be very surprised if Newcastle came through that, and with big money owners you’d have to say his job is at risk.
It will also be interesting to see what Chelsea do with Mauricio Pochettino. They had a lot of eggs in the Carabao Cup basket but were beaten by Liverpool there. This is another season where they won’t get European football and they’ve almost turned into a mid-table side these days. I know they finished there last season, but the general feeling was they could bounce back and compete for that fourth spot; they’ve been nowhere near that. They are basically creating what they are conceding which is more-or-less mid-table form in every elite European league.
There’s actually almost nothing between the sides on the bare figures. Both sides have the exact same average xG created at 1.51, while Chelsea have been marginally better at the back. They have average xG conceded of 1.47 with Newcastle at 1.53. Very similar figures! Obviously a very big factor here is Newcastle’s away performance level. Away from home Newcastle have been very poor, and that’s because they have been conceding so many chances. Their average xG conceded away from home is a whopping 1.77. Compare that to their average created of 1.21 and you can see why they have lost so many games this season.
Despite those poor figures for Newcastle, you still wouldn’t be rushing to back Chelsea at 1.95 here. They have dropped so many points too this season, and while Newcastle haven’t been a side to support away from home I still don’t see value in the Chelsea price. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here, because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 and although the market is expecting goals, I feel there is still value in the odds at 1.5. Both sides have been conceding plenty of sloppy goals this season and we should have an open game here; Overs is a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheNwc
