GREATEST JUMPS SHOW ON EARTH: It’s Cheltenham week.. Do you know what I mean! Daqman has prepared for the greatest jumps show on earth and started the week with a winning nap and a Monday profit on all selections.
WON 1-1 DOYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN (nap)
VALUE SEARCH FOR THE IMPROVERS: Look out for Daqman’s IMPROVERS, horses most likely to take a step forward in the Cheltenham arena; they might topple the hot favourites or they might themselves be value at a short price; supernaps replace Fortune Cookies; and there’s form and ratings on the day’s main race.
CHELTENHAM STATS: Don’t forget to check out Daqman’s day by day, race by race stats pointers to Cheltenham (click below)
IRISH SURE TO MAKE A POINT
👀 There’s an IMPROVER here: spot him at BETDAQ 8.1 👀
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) STATS (see separate section of Daqman’s Stats for every race – link above): Nine winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7 won 10 out of 14.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165, 173.
TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 4 in the last 14 years; 12 winners out of the 14 had previously won a Grade-1 hurdle. Official ratings:
169 STATE MAN (Willie Mullins) 10 wins in 11 hurdles starts over the last two years, the sequence interrupted only by Constitution Hill in this Champion Hurdle last season. Twice winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle.
159 IRISH POINT (Gordon Elliott) * IMPROVER * Still 10lb behind State Man on the ratings but very versatile, winner at 2m 1f (Grade 3), 2m 4f (Grade 1 novices) and just short of 3m (Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown), beating a 154 rated of Willie Mullins by 11 lengths.
158 NOT SO SLEEPY (Hughie Morrison) He’s been around since 2014, Flat and Jumps! Finished fifth in each of the last three Champion Hurdles, restoring his 158 rating for this year by winning the Fighting Fifth in December (transferred to Sandown) by eight lengths from a 153-rated on heavy.
152 ZARAK THE BRAVE (Willie Mullins) Beaten by Lossiemouth in the Champion Four-Year-Old at Punchestown last Spring and, though taking two Grade-3 recently, starting with the Galway Hurdle in August, he has been pegged on 152.
151 NEMEAN LION (Kerry Lee) Progressive but unlikely to be enough of an improver to cap his two Grade-2, the Kingwell in February and the Premier Novices at Kelso last March, though together they put him up 20lb.
146 COLONEL MUSTARD (Lorna Fowler) Only a length and a half off Nemean Lion in the Kingwell, but he stays on 146, just a pound higher than when 9 lengths behind State Man in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle. That describes his chance and that of Nemean Lion today as unrealistic.
140 LUCCIA (Nicky Henderson) Consistent mare, finally broke the Graded barrier at Ascot after two placed efforts but down 2lb on her mark when fourth in the Mares Novices at the festival last March.
DAQMAN VERDICT: 1 State Man, 2 Irish Point
Betdaq Betting Exchange Irish Point value win (8.1) and place.
TULLYHILL IN WILLIE ONE-TWO
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Both Daqman and Pricewise were on No Flies On Him for this before Punchestown on February 18.
But he was swatted nine lengths by Willie Mullins’ Tullyhill, with Jigoro in third beaten further than another supreme Mullins’ novice (Mystical Power) could manage in the Moscow Flyer hurdle at Punchestown.
Tullyhill and Mystical Power are jockeyed up for a one-two today, Tullyhill 5lb superior in the ratings (the only one on 150-plus, if you are checking out my stats page) but Mystical Power looks for advantage from a first-time hood.
Firefox and Slade Steel will tell us more about Ballyburn’s chance in tomorrow’s Baring Bingham. Check out the form before and after this sizzler.
15.0 TEMPS: BIG BETDAQ OVERS
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) Daqman’s stats (see separate page) and yesterday’s list of my ante-post bets reveal a value banker for today: Il Etait Temps, taken at 15.0 on BETDAQ.
Now 6.5, he was beaten by stablemate Gaelic Warrior at Limerick and we need a saver on that one at 3.0.
But the Warrior unseated at the last when, eased down, clear in a two-horse race at Leopardstown, so a hood is deemed necessary.
Il Etait Temps headed Found A Fifty in the final strides of the Irish Arkle, after that one demolished My Mate Mozzie, at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.
EASIER FOR GENIUS THIS TIME
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) The enormous task which faced Monbeg Genius and The Goffer, third and fourth in this last year, is obvious in hindsight: the winner, Corach Rambler, and the runner-up, Fastorslow, are now rated 159 and 170 as two of the top chasers in training.
Monbeg Genius (BETDAQ 12.0) was third in the Newbury Gold Cup in December, and could bounce back here in first-time cheekpieces.
The favourite, Meetingofthewaters, lacks essential Cheltenham experience to date, and Chianti Classico pulled up in the 2023 Albert Bartlett and has no form on ground worse than good to soft.
The ones for the money have been Trelawne (has won only one chase and has been best at 2m 4f so far) and Weveallbeencaught, tongue-tied today.
STRAIGHT FROM HORSE’S MOUTH
👀 There’s an *IMPROVER* here of Supernap status 👀
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) This is won by young mares and of the three lining up today, Lossiemouth and Ashroe Diamond – both for Willie Mullins – are likely to be too experienced for Lantry Lady.
Lossiemouth won the Triumph Hurdle on soft a year back and, only five, now looks Champion Hurdle material, improved a stone for four runs, winning the Punchestown Champion Four-Year-Old and the International here at Cheltenham in January.
THE EAGLE CAN LAND IT: 17.0
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Boodles Juvenile Hurdle) If you call up Daqman’s Stats above, you’ll see that this is the race to land an outsider.
Negatives: These four-year-olds have had few races and any one of them could progress suddenly, so finding the Improver is to look for a needle in a haystack or, in racing parlance, ‘it’s a pinsticker’s race.’
Lays Logic: I warn you also that, though the favourite is on a hiding, according to past results, you may have to lay at odds which can hit your bank if he breaks the pattern.
The three on 133-134 have the right ratings but it puts them on a weight that’s not carried in this, nor likely to be in deep ground.
The Naas race that has produced four of the last five Boodles winners points up Eagle Fang; runner-up Bright Legend is weighted to close him down in the reassessment but the stable continues out of form.
Paul Nicholls, who won the best English trial, the Adonis, is sending the winner, Kalif Du Berlais, straight to Aintree, and today runs a similar French recruit, Liari, whose hat-trick included an Aintree Listed!
BETDAQ value: 8.5 Liari, 17.0 Eagle Fang.
DALLY ON SALVADOR’S OFFER
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup) This is a race farmed by Gordon Elliott with, notably, Cause Of Causes and Tiger Roll.
He put Salvador Ziggy away for it after an excellent summer and autumn in which he ran second in the Kerry National, beaten less than four lengths, giving 15lb to the winner.
That winner was lifted to 145 and the third won the cross-country at Cheltenham’s autumn meeting off 149. BETDAQ value 8.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (win 33)
BET 10pts win TULLYHILL
2.10 Cheltenham (win-140 ante-post)
BET 10pts win IL ETAIT TEMPS
BET 5pts x 3.0 (saver) GAELIC WARRIOR
2.50 Cheltenham (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win and place MONBEG GENIUS
3.30 Cheltenham (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7pts win and place IRISH POINT
4.10 Cheltenham (supernap)
BET 20pts win LOSSIEMOUTH
4.50 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bet, win 30)
BET 3pts win and place EAGLE FANG
BET 4pts win LIARI
5.30 Cheltenham (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7pts win SALVADOR ZIGGY
Cheltenham Daq Multiples
BET 2 x 5pt win doubles
3.30 STATE MAN, IRISH POINT
4.10 LOSSIEMOUTH
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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