FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews KOLN v RB LEIPZIG and REAL SOCIEDAD v CADIZ both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
KOLN V RB LEIPZIG
7.30pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga this week! It’s been a hectic week around Europe with the Last 16 second legs of the Champions League and Europa League. We have an International break after this matchday, so we best enjoy the action this weekend! We kick off the evening with Koln hosting RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga – Leipzig will be fully expected to win here given Koln are sitting in the bottom three. With a seven point gap now between the bottom three and the rest, the best placing Koln can hope for now is the relegation playoff spot and take their chances in that. At things stand they do sit in that 16th position, but they are only two points ahead of Mainz with Darmstadt nailed on for the bottom spot. As you would expect, RB Leipzig come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.57 with Koln 6.4 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. Leipzig are in a massive battle with Dortmund for that fourth spot, and after having a six point lead at the winter break they start this weekend sitting one point behind Dortmund. It looks like there’s no stopping Stuttgart above them so one of Leipzig and Dortmund will be disappointed this season.
If Leipzig do finish in fourth, they have to win games like this. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides when you look at their performance levels. Leipzig have an average xG created of 1.77 which is the third best attacking figure in the Bundesliga this season. Koln are miles behind that at 1.17 – however they will feel a little unlucky to be so far down the table. The problem for Koln has been actually taking those chances – their actual goals scored average is only 0.76 – that’s the worst record in the league. Obviously they have been conceding a lot of chances too; put the two things together and you’re in big trouble as the table shows. The only slight negative with Leipzig here is that they do concede more chances away from home, but they are up against a very poor attacking side here who more-than-likely won’t be able to take advantage. I was surprised to see Leipzig trading as high as 1.57 when I clicked into the market – I felt we’d see them trading sub 1.5 here. I see this as a one way traffic win, and we’re getting so much value at 1.57 that Leipzig are worth a Max Bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win RB Leipzig to beat Koln at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KolRbl
REAL SOCIEDAD V CADIZ
8pm We move to La Liga to finish Friday as Real Sociedad host Cadiz. We have a similar market to the game above here, except the favourite is at home and is a handful of ticks shorter. Real Sociedad are trading 1.5 with Cadiz 10.0 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Cadiz recorded a massive win last weekend at home to Atletico Madrid – that was absolutely huge as they were becoming a little adrift in the relegation zone. They now start the weekend two points behind Celta Vigo and four points behind Rayo Vallecano. I feel the main problem for Cadiz in those two sides have much better performance levels, and you would expect them to collect more points as the season goes on. Cadiz only have an average xG created of 0.90 which is the joint-worst attacking figure in La Liga this season. Couple that with an average xG conceded in the bottom four, and it’s easy to understand why they are sitting in the relegation zone. You have to give Cadiz massive credit for battling hard – they have done so for a few seasons now – but looking at the under-lining numbers you’d have to say it would be surprising if they were able to stay up this season.
Real Sociedad will say that they are having a disappointing season too; they have dropped out of the top four in La Liga and obviously are knocked out of the Champions League now too. They have to battle for a Europa League spot; that seems to be the best outcome now. Their xG figures basically reflect where they are in the table – they were able to take advantage of Sevilla dropping out of the Champions League spots last season but their level was never really that high. They are very solid at the back too, and that makes the goal markets interesting. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.55 so the market is expecting Cadiz to struggle to score again. I would be tempted by that bet if it was trading higher, but given it’s only five ticks bigger than the Sociedad win I much prefer the home win at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Sociedad to beat Cadiz at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SocCdz
