NATIONAL GUIDE ALL NEXT WEEK: Daqman keeps you on the Aintree trail all next week with Grand National hidden horses and his ABC guide to the runners, after Monday’s final declarations. But Flat fans hungry for the season to get back under way have today’s preview and Saturday’s big-race analysis.
DAQMAN IS LEADING THE FIELD: Daqman has landed 13 out of 23 naps since the Flat season began in March (56% strike rate) and the search for value prices continues with an early 7-3 lead over Pricewise, 97.50 ahead to 10-point level stakes.
KEMPTON: THE LETHAL DRAW
⭕ 2.40 Kempton, Saturday (Rosebery Handicap) Punters who follow trends are looking for a pattern which gives them an edge in the market.
The last thing they are likely to follow is the bogey draw that usually counts a horse out of contention before the gates open. I’m talking about the one stall.
The jockey drawn one is going to be squeezed out, unless he drives forward from the start and that could use up his mount’s energy at the wrong end of the race; others in the field will be glad to let him go on or, if he drops out and tucks in, will cynically take his ground on the rail and keep him hemmed in without daylight.
So if you buy the draw record for this Rosebery Handicap, you may want to dig deeper or you’ll have to accept at face value these four results from the last seven seasons:
WON 2022: the 1 stall wins with gate 2 in the frame
WON 2019: it’s 1 and 2 in at the finish again, with the one stall triumphant.
WON 2018: win and place 1 and 3 this time.
WON 2016: the first of the four wins for the one stall
Maybe there’s a clue in that three were fancied at 7-2 favourite, 9-2 joint favourite and 4-1, though the last one-stall win in 2022 started at 22-1.
⭕ 3.15 Kempton, Saturday (Queen’s Prize) Forget the draw in long-distance races, do you, arguing that they have plenty of time to sort themselves out over 2m and more?
Not so at Chester and Newcastle; not so at Kempton, at least in this ancient handicap, the Queen’s Prize.
Result by stall over 10 years: 2, 5, 5, 3, 9, 9, 3, 2, 1, 3, where the first three stalls win six out of 10; the first five get eight!
First exception to the rule came when Kieran Shoemark spotted the advantage and turned gate 9 into the one stall with a manoeuvre that had 12-1 Blakeney Point make all.
When the acceptors – with their draw – are revealed today, check out Charlie Appleby, who goes for a hat-trick, and Roger Charlton, who has also had two winners of the race in the last six seasons, two of them in the clearly capable hands of Kieran Shoemark.
Roger Charlton has also won a recent Rosebery. From the one stall, of course.
A VIRTUAL WINNER?
⭕ 4.55 Wolverhampton today Virtual Hug was beaten two lengths by Black Smoke over course and distance last month but with a 4lb swing in the weights should go close to reversing that.
Virtual Hug went on to score an easy success over the 1m 4f trip here last time out and is clearly in great heart.
Socialist Agenda has some recent form that stacks up well in the context of this race but his better efforts have all come at Southwell whilst his career record here is only 8586.
CHIEFS TO WIN WEMBLEY FINAL
⭕ 5.00 Lingfield The two last time out winners Road To Wembley and Chiefman should battle this concluding four runner affair out.
Both carry 6lb penalties for their recent wins, but both are set to go up 8lb so are still ahead of the handicapper.
The Betdaq Betting Exchange market was struggling to split them this morning but I have a fairly more binary view.
I think Chiefman’s form has a more solid look to it and of the pair might be the more progressive.
He made all to win the style of a good horse at Newcastle last time out which was his handicap debut. He won by an eased down four and a half lengths and the handicapper might again be left with egg on his face after today.
In contrast, Road To Wembley had to work harder to win at Wolverhampton on his handicap debut last month when he looked an awkward ride.
On the plus side for him is the fact that the front two pulled seven and a half lengths clear in that race and his trainer Richard Hughes couldn’t be in much better form with eight winners from his last 18 runners.
FAVOURITE LOOKS LOCKED OUT
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton Locked N’Loaded looks short in the finale.
He has the unenviable record of 0-6 wins on the occasions he has been sent off favourite since arriving from France and that’s a few too many visits to the well for my liking.
Meng Tian is a speculative alternative to the favourite for a WIN 20 return. He’s hardly a winning machine himself but on pure handicapping terms his recent Southwell reappearance run stacks up quite nicely.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.55 Wolverhampton (win 10, nap)
BET 6.6pts win VIRTUAL HUG
5.00 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 8.2pts win CHIEFMAN
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 2.8pts win MENG TIAN
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