THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GRANADA v VALENCIA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GRANADA v VALENCIA
7pm It’s been a busy week in the Premier League, but we also have midweek action from la Liga on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Granada host Valencia on Thursday night. We have a pretty open market here; Valencia are the favourites at 2.42 with Granada 3.5 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Granada have been really struggling this season, and I was slightly surprised to see Valencia trading as high as 2.42 when I clicked into the market. There are reasons when you look under the hood however; a quick look at the table would make you think this should be a straightforward win for Valencia but I don’t see that being the case.
Granada have only managed two wins all season, and after their loss last Friday night against Cadiz they are nailed on to get relegated now. As I said in my preview of that game, they needed to win to even have a chance to get back into the mix to stay up – even a win in that game would still have likely resulted in relegation but after that they are a whopping 14 points behind Celta Vigo in 17th. Given they’ve only managed 14 points all season, things are looking very bleak.
For Valencia, they sit comfortably in mid-table and they could actually go into seventh with a win here. If Athletic Bilbao win the Copa del Rey at the weekend then that will likely see a European spot for seventh so there’s lots to play for. Valencia have been massively over-performing to be sitting where they are though; they actually have an average xG created lower than Granada this season! Hence why we see an open market, if you just looked at the table you’d have Valencia odds on here. Valencia are only creating an average xG of 0.93 this season, which is the joint-second worst attacking figure in La Liga. Granada aren’t much better at 1.08, but it really highlights that the teams are closely matched here in terms of performance levels.
The major difference has been at the back; obviously Valencia have been much better at the back. Valencia are conceding close to one goal per game on average while for Granada it’s two. It’s that classic saying of you don’t win many games when you are conceding two goals! Given the Valencia under-lining numbers, the 2.42 doesn’t jump off the page here. We have two limited sides going forward, with the away side much better at the back. I don’t see many goals here, and Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.69.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GraVal
