PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews the three matches all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LUTON TOWN V BRENTFORD
3pm It’s an FA Cup weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange so we have a shorter than usual Premier League fixture list on Saturday! It’s going to be a massive day in the relegation battle though with all three sides sitting in the bottom three in action, along with Everton hosting Nottingham Forest on Sunday, we should know a lot more about the relegation battle by the end of the weekend! As things stand, the market expects the bottom three to stay the same and it’s up to Luton to change that. We’re at the stage of the season now when every game is a must win game, but this does look an excellent opportunity. Brentford have been really struggling this season; they are only seven points away from Luton and prior to beating Sheffield United last weekend they were in a reasonably uncomfortable position themselves. They were never really in trouble, but they have always been too close to the relegation zone this season and that’s been a reflection of how poor they have been. To be fair to Brentford however, they have battled hard in recent weeks – they have managed draws with Manchester United, Brighton and Aston Villa. The main issue for Brentford this season is they have been poor at the back, but now they face a side that’s been worse than them!
Brentford come into the game as the favourites at 2.24 with Luton Town 3.35 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. There’s no getting away from the fact that Luton have been poor this season – they are one of only three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0 and they also have the joint-second worst defensive figure in the Premier League too. The reality is that there aren’t many positive things to say about Luton this season other than they have fought very well and battled hard to get as many points as they have. I know supporting Luton this season hasn’t been a profitable position but the 2.24 on Brentford looks very short in my opinion. They are having a poor season too, and they’ve only managed eight wins all season. I just feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest here, and from a value point of view I’m very happy with the Brentford lay at 2.24. Luton have managed to score 20 of their last 21 Premier League games, and Brentford have been conceding a lot of goals this season too.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Brentford to beat Luton Town at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutBre
SHEFFIELD UNITED V BURNLEY
3pm We only have two 3pm fixtures on Saturday, and the second fixture is Sheffield United hosting Burnley. These two have taken up the last two spots in the Premier League table for quite some time now, and the writing has been on the wall for them for a while now. Sheffield United have been comfortably the worst side in the Premier League and they are nailed on to go down, while Burnley have a very slim chance. They start the weekend five points behind Luton and six behind Nottingham Forest – I just can’t see them catching both of those sides to stay up. To have any chance of actually achieving that though, they simply have to win here – there’s no hiding place now; anything bar a win here and they are confirmed as going down. We have a very open market, but Burnley come into the game as the favourites at 2.54 with Sheffield United 2.88 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Burnley went into this season full of hope – they had ran away with the Championship and the general opinion was they were playing “Guardiola ball” last season. It hasn’t worked out that way in the Premier League!
To come into a game against Sheffield United trading 2.54 is a reflection of how little confidence the market has in this Burnley side. Sheffield United have been the worst performing side in Europe this season, never mind just the Premier League. However, Burnley also have an average xG created under 1.0 this season, and it’s only 0.85 away from home which is very poor. The only side with less points than Burnley away from home this season is Sheffield United! We have two very poor sides here obviously, and anything bar a low quality game would be a surprise – even with the little hope, it is a massive game for Burnley. I could see them being more cagey than Sheffield United who have been involved in some high scoring games lately! 2-2, 3-1, 3-3, 2-2, 6-0 and 5-0 twice since February. I’m going to keep stakes limited, but I feel we’ll see goals here – I think Sheffield United will open the game up, and we know both sides concede a lot of chances at the back.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheBur
WOLVES V ARSENAL
7.30pm We have no 5.30pm fixture with the FA Cup Semi-Final on, and we go straight to 7.30pm to finish the day as Wolves host Arsenal. Most football fans will be expecting an Arsenal win here, but they come into this game having had the week from hell. Their season is in tatters after a loss at home to Aston Villa last weekend and then they got knocked out of the Champions League on Wednesday night by Bayern Munich. While Arsenal went into that tie as the favourites given Bayern’s troubles in the Bundesliga this season, Bayern are a top club and the only thing they had left to focus on was the Champions League – you were always going to get a reasonably improved performance compared to their meaningless domestic games at the moment. Arsenal couldn’t deal with them; they finished the two games with xG figures of 1.38 and 1.33; not exactly figures that would say they were unlucky. As difficult as it is, they just have to move on quickly here – they start the weekend two points behind Manchester City at the top of the table and although everyone has said the title race is over – a win here sees Arsenal go top and surely we might see some more drama by the end of the season.
I think from a morale point of view, this is a must win game for Arsenal. Move to the top of the table, all they can do is try to win every game from here. They come into this game as the red-hot favourites at 1.41 with Wolves 9.0 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. Wolves have been very average this season, their average xG created is only 1.18 which is towards the lower end of attacking figures. However, you have to give them credit for grinding out as many results as they have managed to sit in mid-table. They have conceded plenty of chances though, and it’s hard to see past an Arsenal win here to be honest. At the same time, the 1.41 definitely feels a few ticks short – it’s not a price that I would be rushing to back given the situation with Arsenal this week. While I expect them to win in the end, I feel Wolves can make this a very difficult and awkward game for Arsenal. I expect XI men behind the ball from Wolves, and given that Arsenal have been exceptional at the back this season, I don’t expect many goals here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.42 and that looks the value in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolArl
