CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews the first semi-final between BAYERN MUNICH v REAL MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V REAL MADRID
8pm The Champions League Semi-Finals arrive on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE and we kick off with a blockbuster on Tuesday night! Bayern Munich host Real Madrid and it’s nights like this that make the Champions League so special. Bayern Munich’s reign in the Bundesliga came to an end this season with Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen being absolutely faultless, but Bayern have still played very impressive football. The market probably under-estimated them heading into the Quarter-Final with Arsenal but this is a completely different task now. Real Madrid are running away with the La Liga title, and they have the best player in the world at the moment in the shape of Jude Bellingham.
You have to say that if Bayern have any chance of getting to the Final, they have to take a lead to Madrid. As I said prior to the Arsenal Quarter-Final, I wouldn’t read too much into the recent Bundesliga performances from Bayern. The title race has been over for some time – it’s been over since February – and Bayern’s full focus would have been on the Champions League since then. Bayern still have a very impressive average xG created figure – it’s 2.26 which is above Real Madrid’s in La Liga at 1.98. The Bundesliga is definitely a more high scoring league however. Real have been exceptional at the back; their average xG conceded is only 1.08 which is the best defensive figure in La Liga while for Bayern they have an average xG conceded of 1.12 but they have been very sloppy at the back this season.
Bayern have been conceding more goals than they should this season – that’s been the major difference between themselves and Bayer Leverkusen in Germany and it could prove to be the difference here too. We have a very open betting heat; Bayern come into the game as favourites with home advantage at 2.52 with Real Madrid 2.98 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. It’s hard to believe Bayern were trading at a very similar price for the Arsenal game here – only six ticks in the difference. In my opinion Real Madrid are on a completely different level to Arsenal.
Regular readers will know that I felt Bayern were under-rated in the market against Arsenal – I think the market has swung too much the other way here. Real Madrid have been exceptional this year, and I’d definitely have the sides closer together in the market. The 2.52 on Bayern looks more than a couple of ticks short for me. As we saw in the Quarter-Final stage, with the away goal rule gone we’re seeing a lot more open games at the knockout stage. That’s obviously been very entertaining, and this game should be no different. I can’t see either side sitting back here, and I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.73. I really like the Bayern lay and the Overs bet here – I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but I feel we’re getting marginally more value with the Bayern lay.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayRma
