CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews the second semi-final between DORTMUND v PSG with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V PSG
8pm We have the second Champions League Semi-Final on Wednesday night as Dortmund host PSG! Heading into the Quarter-Finals second legs, you could have easily been forgiven for expecting an all La Liga clash here but both sides came from one goal behind to earn their spot here. We have another very open betting heat on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE for this Semi-Final; it’s actually more-or-less the exact same odds as Bayern Munich v Real Madrid on Tuesday night except this time it’s the away side as favourites! PSG are trading 2.52 with Dortmund 2.88 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing.
Dortmund simply have to win here if they are going to make it to the Final. I know that sounds quite basic given they have home advantage, but if you look at their under-lining numbers this season home advantage has been very important for them. They drew away to PSV at the Last 16 stage and then lost to Atletico Madrid at the Quarter-Final stage. In the Bundesliga this season, they are conceding an average xG of 1.61 away from home which is very high for a top club – that’s more than they are creating away from home too. They lost a big game at the weekend to RB Leipzig which left them five points off the top four as well. All that negativity is for the second leg however; Dortmund have home advantage here and the Yellow Wall will have the stadium rocking.
PSG will likely be thinking if they can draw here then the tie is in their hands. Both sides will know each other very well as they met in the Group stage. PSG won 2-0 in Paris while the sides drew 1-1 here. PSG actually finished that game with an xG of 1.97 in what was a very open game that should have had plenty of goals. The first time the sides met in Paris it was actually less open! I can’t see either side sitting back here to be honest, it’s just not in their nature – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.54 while Both Teams To Score is 1.51. Given the away goal rule is gone, we’re a lot more likely to have an open game than in previous years.
PSG are obviously dominating in Ligue 1 – they aren’t really judged domestically because there’s such a gulf in class between themselves and the rest. They drew 3-3 at the weekend with Le Havre but the title is in the bag already given the gap and they would have clearly had one eye on this fixture. While it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to point out PSG have the best attacking figure in Ligue 1, their average xG conceded is a little eye-catching at 1.31. That’s only the sixth best defensive figure and it’s surprising because they dominate the league so much – Inter Milan who already have the title won in Italy for example have a figure of 1.07. For the likes of Real Madrid it’s 1.09 and Manchester City it’s 0.94.
I feel the defensive figure is probably more telling than the attacking figure in Ligue 1. Clearly PSG have been leaking goals and chances this season, and that’s something Dortmund will want to take advantage of. I can see Dortmund trying to make the game as open as possible and going toe-to-toe with PSG. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because the 1.51 on Both Teams To Score looks cracking value in my opinion. I feel we’ll have a very open and attacking end-to-end game with plenty of chances.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DrtPsg
