EUROPA LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS: The Ultra previews MARSEILLE v ATALANTA and ROMA v BAYER LEVERKUSEN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MARSEILLE V ATALANTA
8pm We kick off the Europa League Semi-Finals on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two fascinating markets on Thursday night! It’s a shame that both games kick off at the same time, and it’s fair to say most eyes will be on Roma v Bayer Leverkusen as the highlight tie. However, we have a very open market as we start the evening with Marseille v Atalanta. Marseille come into the game as the favourites with home advantage while Atalanta at 3.05 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. Atalanta shocked the football world in the Quarter-Finals to knock out Liverpool – they won 3-0 at Anfield which is no mean feat! Marseille finished behind Brighton in their Group but they have done well since knocking out Shakhtar Donetsk, Villarreal and Benfica. They’ve definitely kept their best performances from this tournament because they are sitting in seventh in Ligue 1, which we know is a pretty weak league. Atalanta are sitting sixth in Serie A, but obviously the standard there is much higher. They are six points off the top four with a game in hand too, so they could have an interesting finish to the season; they would jump over Roma into fifth if they won their game in hand.
Quite Marseille are sitting a little down the table in Ligue 1, their performance levels have been pretty solid. Their average xG created is 1.55 which is in the top five attacking figures; for Atalanta they have a marginally better figure at 1.6, but that’s actually the third best attacking figure in Serie A. Both clubs have very similar figures at the back too; Atalanta are conceding an average xG of 1.28 while for Marseille it’s 1.22. Home advantage could be a huge factor here because Atalanta are conceding marginally more than there are creating away from home this season – obviously their highlight was hammering Liverpool away! Atalanta have struggled in Serie A recently, but they come into this game off the back of two wins which is much improved from only one win in their previous seven. Marseille have actually been on a poor run too, they finally won a Ligue 1 game at the weekend after a five game run without a win. I feel we have two very even sides here, you’d possibly say that Atalanta have a little edge, but home advantage should even that out. The draw is a very tempting bet at 3.45 in what should be a very close game. I would also consider Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 – I was surprised to see that trading odds against in what I expect to be a tight game, however I feel there’s a little more value in the draw price.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MarAta
ROMA V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
8pm We head to Roma next for the glamour tie of the Semi-Finals as Roma host Bayer Leverkusen. This should be a fascinating clash; we might have a bit of spice too because a video went viral after the Quarter-Finals showing Xabi Alonso and his staff absolutely delighted to get Roma! I’m sure that’s been a point of motivation for the Italian club! Bayer Leverkusen have had the Bundesliga in the bag for a while now, so their full focus can switch to the Europa League now – Roma are in a battle for a top four spot in Serie A but they suffered a huge blow recently when losing to Bologna who take up that fourth spot, and then they dropped points at the weekend away to Napoli. Leverkusen have been pulling games out of the fire recently to extend their crazy unbeaten run – they’ve scored late goals recently against Dortmund, Stuttgart and West Ham in this competition. It’s not a surprise to see them come into this game as the clear favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. Bayer Leverkusen are 2.1 with Roma 3.9 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. It will be interesting to see what tactics Roma employ here; will they go toe-to-toe with this Leverkusen side who have been so good going forward all season?
Roma are in a tricky situation here; can they risk going toe-to-toe with one of the best attacking sides in Europe this season – however the reality is to have a chance of getting to the Final they need to take a lead to Germany. What an interesting game ahead! Roma have a reasonably poor average xG created this season at 1.28 but that has been increasing every week since they sacked Jose Mourinho – it was close to 1.1 when he left. Since then they’ve only lost twice in Serie A too; Inter Milan and Bologna are both top four sides as well. Leverkusen have an average xG created of 2.05 which is exceptionally impressive. Not only that, but the difference between themselves and Bayern Munich has been at the back. Their average xG conceded of 1.01 is the best defensive figure in the Bundesliga, and one of the best in Europe. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here given they won’t be unhappy with a draw, but the 2.1 on Leverkusen is too big to ignore in my opinion. There’s a little gulf in class between the sides and I’d have Leverkusen marginally odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Bayer Leverkusen to beat Roma at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomLev
