PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s five matches starting with ARSENAL v BOURNEMOUTH at 12.30pm all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V BOURNEMOUTH
12.30pm It’s another massive Premier League weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, starting with five fixtures on Saturday. With Arsenal and Manchester City both in action again, it’s another big day in the title race as we tick the clock down on the season. We start the day with Arsenal hosting Bournemouth, and Mikel Arteta’s side will be fully expected to win this. They come into the game trading as the red-hot favourites at 1.21 with Bournemouth 15.0 and the draw is 8.6 at the time of writing. That isn’t even the shortest price of the day as that title goes to Manchester City! Arsenal start the weekend with a one point advantage over Manchester City, but obviously City have a game in hand – Arsenal just have to keep winning and hope that City slip up somewhere under pressure. Bournemouth are having a good season – they have a decent chance now of finishing in the top half of the table which would be a good result for them. They have definitely created more this season, but they have also been very open at the back and that’s likely to cost them away from home to Arsenal.
Bournemouth have an average xG conceded of 1.51 but their actual goals conceded average works out at 1.71. They have been entertaining to watch, but they have been sloppy at the back. That’s the opposite of Arsenal; they have been the best defensive side in the Premier League this season with an average xG conceded of just 0.92. That’s marginally better than City, and why most pundits have talked up Arsenal’s chances of a title this season compared to last season when they had that massive lead. It’s easy to stay away from the match odds market here because Arsenal are so short, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.39, but it’s also expecting Arsenal to do most of the work there because Both Teams To Score is 1.91. I know Arsenal have been fantastic at the back this season so I’m going to keep stakes small, however as I said above Bournemouth have created a lot this season. They aren’t going to change style and sit back now; I feel we’ll have an open game and Bournemouth can score at some stage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBne
BRENTFORD V FULHAM
3pm We have three fixtures kicking off the 3pm, and we start with Brentford hosting Fulham. We don’t have any massive favourites from the three games, Nottingham Forest are odds on but they aren’t too short. Brentford come into this game as the 2.2 favourites with Fulham 3.4 and the draw is 3.95. Brentford have had a very poor season, they have hung around the relegation battle for most of it – not really heavily involved but within touching distance. In fairness to them they have got results when the pressure came on in recent weeks, and now they start this weekend ten points away from Luton in 18th. They actually started the season pretty well but they were terrible in the middle part – five games without losing has got them out of trouble anyway – that’s their longest unbeaten spell since their opening four games of the season. Although they did well to draw with Manchester United, Brighton and Aston Villa – it’s worth mentioning that their two wins came against Sheffield United and Luton, who we know are both very average. It will be interesting to see how they perform here; I would suggest that the 2.2 is a little short.
However, despite that opinion it is hard to support Fulham away from home. This season it’s like we’ve had two Fulham sides – the one who plays at home and the one who plays away! They have managed to grind out a few results which is to their credit, but only Sheffield United, Luton and Nottingham Forest have less points than Fulham away from home this season – they did manage to win their last away game though; a 2-0 win at West Ham. Any xG fans will know how many chances the Hammers are conceding this season though! This should be an entertaining game in my opinion; both sides leak chances at the back and to be honest at this stage of the season neither of them have a reason to sit back either. Over 2.5 goals is 1.67 and Both Teams To Score is seven ticks shorter at 1.6; I couldn’t put anyone off either bet but I prefer BTTS.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreFlm
BURNLEY V NEWCASTLE
3pm Next we probably have the most interesting market of the day in my opinion. Burnley host Newcastle and they still have an outside chance of staying up – obviously every game is must win at the moment in that sense. We all know how poor Newcastle have been away from home this season, but Newcastle have something to play for too in the race for a European spot. They must fancy their chances of catching Manchester United who sit in sixth just one point ahead of them – United are conceding so many chances and goals this season that wouldn’t be a surprise. Newcastle come into this game as the 2.06 favourites with Burnley 3.6 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. I feel we’ll have some big opinions on either side of the book on that Newcastle price. On one hand, Burnley have been very average this season and their stats aren’t pretty – on the other hand, Newcastle have an average xG conceded of 1.76 away from home this season which is exceptionally high. Especially when you’re created average is only 1.21 too. Burnley might have had a poor season, but they are having their best run at the moment.
They’ve only lost once in their last eight games – you could say that they have had a reasonably easy fixture list but they have still played Brighton, Manchester United and Chelsea in that run. Obviously they have found a bit of confidence, and they actually played very well at Old Trafford last weekend – they could have easily won the game with the amount of chances they created. I know Manchester United have been poor at the back this season, but you could say the same thing about Newcastle away from home too! Newcastle games have been packed with goals this year, and I can see plenty of chances. Over 2.5 goals is tempting at 1.53 and I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, however I like the Newcastle lay at 2.06. I just feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest here – Burnley come into it on their best run of the season and Newcastle have been there for the taking away from home. We could have a massive result in the relegation battle here!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Burnley at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrnNew
SHEFFIELD UNITED V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm While Burnley might shock everyone and spice the relegation battle up with a win against Newcastle, next we have a massive game for Nottingham Forest as they travel to take on Sheffield United. There’s no other way to describe this game only to say it’s an absolutely must win game for Forest. They start the weekend one point above Luton after both sides lost again last weekend – obviously they have their appeal to the point deduction but that will sort itself out. In terms of staying up, they won’t get a better chance at three points than this game. Sheffield United have been woeful this season and they are already relegated – you might say that fact confirmed might release the pressure – we have saw stuff like that in the past. However, the writing has been on the wall for some time with Sheffield United. As I have highlighted in the past, looking at their performance figure they are not just the worse performing side in the Premier League but in all of Europa’s elite leagues. After this Forest have to play Chelsea and then they are away to Burnley on the final day.
They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.71 with Sheffield United 5.2 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. We haven’t had Nottingham Forest trading odds on many times this season, especially away from home! Obviously Forest are the better side, but both sides have been pretty poor. For example, Sheffield United have an average xG created of 0.86 and for Forest it’s 1.13 – they are better but not by much! I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.71 on Forest here, and it’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter – it’s very much a need to win price. Both sides have equally been poor at the back, and we will see goals here in my opinion. Sheffield United have opened up in recent weeks and most of their games have had plenty of goals – eight of their last nine have had Over 2.5 goals. That’s trading 1.62 and I feel given the recent approach of Sheffield United that offers a bit of value here. Fascinating game ahead, all the pressure is on Forest.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheNot
MANCHESTER CITY V WOLVES
5.30pm We finish Saturday with the shortest price of the day as Manchester City host Wolves. Pep Guardiola’s men come into this game trading as short as 1.11 at the time of writing with Wolves 28.0 and the draw is 14.0. Fair to say anything bar a City win here would be one of the shocks of the season! City will obviously have one eye on the Arsenal game earlier in the day to see where they stand in the title race, but you’d assume this will be to get back to within one point. It’s always interesting to look at the mid-table sides at this stage of the season and see their motivation levels. Some of them are quite easily on the beach early with nothing to play for – I thought Wolves could have been one of those sides but in fairness to them they battled hard for 2-1 win against Luton last weekend. Their performance wasn’t great however; Luton actually finish the game with a higher xG figure than Wolves – that’s a bit of a red flag. If Wolves turn up here with a similar level they will be blown away.
With City trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets for some value. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.33 and it’s also expecting all those goals to come from City because Both Teams Not To Score is odds on at 1.69. Given Wolves only have an average xG created of 1.16, it’s hard to see them scoring here – especially when you consider that City will completely control the game and have most of the ball. Wolves will most likely have to focus on getting set pieces right. City are trading 1.91 to cover a 2.5 goal handicap line which I feel doesn’t offer as much value at the Both Teams Not To Score bet at 1.69 – City usually put Wolves to the sword but in fairness Wolves did beat them earlier this season! I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small, but a City clean sheet looks a nice position to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciWlv
