DAQMAN’S 1,000 GUINEAS ABC GUIDE: It was a three-way tie among the colts with all boxes ticked for Daqman’s ABC guide to Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas yesterday but today’s 1,000 Guineas has just one filly with the top credentials for Sunday’s Classic.
NUMBERS GAME IN A HANDICAP: Today Daqman analyses a handicap at Newmarket, assuming the low-draw bias is maintained.
CAN YOU JUSTIFY RAMATUELLE?
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Sunday (1,000 Guineas) ABC GUIDE
A At least one previous run at Newmarket: 98%
B At least one win in a Group race: 85%
C Rated 105 or higher: 90%
D Winner trained Aidan O’Brien, Richard Hannon
ABCD YLANG YLANG Fillies Mile winner here on soft (See The Fire third), after blips in the Moyglare (last of 9; ran too freely) and Rockfel (3rd). By Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, and likely Oaks contender.
ABC DANCE SEQUENCE Godolphin winner of the Oh So Sharp (soft; ran green) here in the autumn, and still some immaturity when pipped by Pretty Crystal in the Nell Gwyn trial last month.
A*BC FALLEN ANGEL Back-to-back winner of the Sweet Solera (*July Course not the Rowley Mile) and Moyglare when Porta Fortuna was third.
ABC PORTA FORTUNA Won the Albany at Royal Ascot (Pretty Crystal 5th) and back to form in the autumn, took the Cheveley Park here (Sacred Angel 3rd) and, second, beaten only half a length in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m): both on firm. See Fallen Angel
ABC PRETTY CRYSTAL Gamely won the Nell Gwyn (7f good) at Newmarket this Spring, holding Dance Sequence a neck. See Sacred Angel.
ABC SACRED ANGEL Comfortably beat Pretty Crystal in the Princess Margaret (6f Ascot, July). See Porta Fortuna.
AC SEE THE FIRE See Ylang Ylang and Darnation.
BCD CONTENT Won a Group 3 at the Curragh on soft last October before (stayed on strongly) beaten only a length and a half in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m) on firm. See Porta Fortuna.
BC DARNATION Stablemate to Fallen Angel, completed a hat-trick when readily beating See The Fire in the May Hill but had the worst draw and was too keen in the Marcel Boussac, six-lengths fifth to Opera Singer.
BC RAMATUELLE Robert Papin winner and runner-up in the Morny to the Middle Park winner, Vandeek, with the Ballydoyle colt, River Tiber, a well-beaten third. Same sire (Justify) as the 2,000 Guineas favourite, City Of Troy, and wet conditions would suit.
D STAR STYLE Impressive at home and in one run on the track (Newbury 16 days ago) when making all. Related to 1m 4f winners. Could provide a shock place.
FOUR FRANK REASONS FOR A BET
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket today The Craven meeting last month left us a legacy of low numbers in the draw, with seven out of 10 races over 7f and 1m going to stalls 1 to 4.
This bias is confirmed from the two years of results for this 7f handicap, won on both occasions by stall 2.
The draw effect is strongest in handicaps where – theoretically at least – the runners should finish in a line, and any bias tips the balance!
LAYS LOGIC: Noble Dynasty tried three times and failed over the Rowley Mile course until he got his conditions (a sound surface) and gate 3 over 7f in September (won 10-30). Today he comes out of 13.
FORM PICK: We need a form pick or a stable in form, or both, from a low number.
Final Watch (gate 1) is a once-a-year winner who usually needs a race or two. Won here over the CD three years back out of stall 3. He was stone last in this race 12 months ago.
The filly Zouky (out of 2) was not fancied in a Listed at Kempton early last month but ran well and is dropped a grade today.
Be Frank (3) is my pick for four reasons. He’s got the draw; he’s unexposed at the trip; he won first time out last season, and he’s with a shrewd trainer.
Saint Lawrence (4) seems to have a tough test giving weight to all off 10st but he’s been performing at Group level, since he won the Wokingham first run for Archie Watson. He won over 7f in his youth, and cheekpieces are back on.
Lethal Levi (5): Karl Burke has made a great start to the season and this one is unexposed at 7f but has always needed a run back.
Thunder Ball (6) Between 4th in the 2023 Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot and 4th in the Newbury Spring Cup last month, he was up 10lb.
English Oak (7) won over a mile in July and, with Tom Marquand up for the first time, went down by a neck in a big-field 6f handicap at Ascot in the autumn
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.4 English Oak, 8.8 Be Frank
NOT SO GLORIOUS
⭕ 4.25 Goodwood It’s not quite so glorious on the South Downs today as they caught the midweek thunderstorm full on with the ground now heavy.
Portsmouth is favourite here but his win 10 days ago at Epsom came on good ground (holds Show Biz Kid on that form) and it’s no great surprise to see the Andrew Balding trained runner slightly weak in the Betdaq Betting Exchange betting.
The value alternative might be Ashariba who improved significantly on her debut here to win at Yarmouth on only her second start when it was good to soft.
Her local trainer David Menuisier won this race year and whilst Ashariba’s entry for the Irish Oaks might be looking a tad ambitious on the limited evidence we have seen, it does at least prove she’s held in reasonable regard from what they have been seeing at home.
⭕ 5.00 Goodwood There are also ground question marks here over several here and it might be best left to the only previous winner in the race Phoenix Passion to notch up his third success from just eight starts – despite a 4lb hike in the weights.
His wins have included on good to soft at Yarmouth and whilst that’s not conclusive evidence he’ll handle the deeper ground here it’s more evidence than his rivals can muster.
He goes well for Saffie Osbourne and the partnership can see off the challenge, likely to be headed by handicap debutant Muttasil.
BE ON YOUR GUARD
⭕ 6.10 Newcastle Queen’s Guard was only beaten a neck over course and distance here last month and may well have needed that after her 251 day break.
She should still be progressive enough to see off the ultra consistent Moonstone Boy who has finished runner-up in six of his eight starts but is still heading UP the weights.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.00 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win ENGLISH OAK
BET 3.75pts win BE FRANK
4.10 Newmarket (win 12)
BET 2pts win NAQEEB
4.25 Goodwood (win 10)
BET 3.4pts win ASHARIBA
5.00 Goodwood (win 10, nap)
BET 6.5pts win PHOENIX PASSION
6.10 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 5.7pts win QUEEN’S GUARD
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