SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s La Liga action all matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V CADIZ
3.15pm The focus from Europe on Saturday is from La Liga with the top four all in action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. We kick the day off with Real Madrid hosting Cadiz, and Cadiz will definitely be hoping that Real have more than one eye on their Champions League Semi-Final next week. They fought hard to claim a 2-2 draw on Tuesday night, and although Bayern were the better side for most of the game you have to give Real massive credit – they just always seem to get the job done in tricky situations. Now they have home advantage for the second leg and their in pole position. It goes without saying that we might see some changes here; no one is playing for Real with a knock or anything like that – and then if we do get a strong eleven you can be sure we’ll see some changes around the 60 minute mark. Real come into this weekend with an eleven point lead over Barcelona with just five games left in the season so they are in a very comfortable position. A side not in a comfortable position is Cadiz as they sit in the relegation zone.
To be honest, the writing looks to be on the wall for Cadiz. They start this weekend five points away from Celta Vigo and six away from Mallorca. With those two clubs playing better football than Cadiz I just can’t see that gap closing; Cadiz battled hard but they were well short on quality this season. Their average xG created is only 0.91 which is the second worst attacking figure in La Liga, and when you add in their defensive figure they have the worst overall performance level in the league – you can’t have many arguments going down with that. Real will be expected to win here even with some changes, and they are trading 1.37 at the time of writing with Cadiz 10.5 and the draw is 5.7. Given the situation, this is a game for low stakes – while Cadiz have been poor going forward they haven’t been as bad as some of the other sides at the back in the relegation battle. With Real having the Champions League Semi-Final next week too, I feel Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.26.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaCdz
GIRONA V BARCELONA
5.30pm Next we have the highlight of the day as Girona host Barcelona. While Girona looked like the main danger to the title for Real Madrid for most of the season, Barcelona have jumped over them now to lead by two points. It would be fair to say that the Barcelona squad are probably just going through the motions at this stage of the season, but for Girona finishing ahead of Barcelona would be a massive achievement. I suppose it’s good motivation for Barcelona here to not let that happen! We have a very open market, and Barcelona come into the game as the favourites at 2.5 with Girona 2.84 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. As I highlighted in recent weeks, Girona have been massively over-performing this season. Their average xG created is 1.48 but they are scoring an average of over two goals per game – they aren’t just over-performing in front of goal either. Their average xG conceded is 1.39 which puts them in the bottom seven defensive figures in La Liga, but their actual goals conceded average is 1.21. That’s quite the difference! Girona are the most over-performing side in La Liga this season, nearly double ahead of the figure in second place too!
What Girona have massively in their favour here is home advantage. They have performed much better at home this season; away from home they have leaked a lot of chances – actually conceding more than they are creating on average. They finally broke a run of five straight losses away from home with a 2-0 win at Las Palmas last weekend! Barcelona have been sloppy at the back this season too, and we had a very entertaining game when the sides met earlier in the season with Girona taking all the headlines to win 4-2 away from home! I’m not surprised to see an open market here, but I feel this game absolutely screams goals. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.51 – Barcelona played a very open game last weekend after losing El Clasico, winning 4-2 against Valencia. I can’t see either side sitting back here to be honest, and at 1.51 I feel Overs is worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GirBrc
MALLORCA V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We finish Saturday in La Liga with Mallorca hosting Atletico Madrid. We have two sides from opposite ends of the table here with Mallorca not far off the relegation battle in 16th and Atletico Madrid sitting in fourth spot. Mallorca can breathe easy given they have a six point advantage over Cadiz, but it’s a little too close for comfort with a view to next season. Atletico have been locked in a battle for the last Champions League spot this season with Athletic Bilbao but they got in a hammer blow last weekend with a 3-1 win over Bilbao. That gave them a six point advantage coming into this matchday; however that might be closed by the time they kick off here with Bilbao playing on Friday night. We have an interesting market here with Atletico the favourites but they aren’t trading odds on. Atletico Madrid are 2.22 with Mallorca 3.9 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. It’s been well know that Atletico have had issues away from home this season; they’ve dropped points 13 times in La Liga this season and 11 of those games have come away from home. That’s not even mentioning the Champions League Quarter-Final turnaround at Dortmund.
Atletico actually only won once away from home in the Champions League this season! The big question here is will Mallorca be good enough to take advantage? Atletico are only barely creating more than they are conceding away from home. The main reason why I wouldn’t be jumping head first into an Atletico lay here though is Mallorca’s performance figures. Their average xG created is only 1.07 – the fifth worst attacking figure in La Liga. They aren’t even taking those chances either as they are scoring less than one goal per game on average – only Cadiz have scored less goals this season. They have obviously been more comfortable at home – they’ve only managed one win away from home all season. I’m going to keep stakes small here because there have to be concerns with Atletico away from home, but I feel the 2.22 is too big to ignore here given the gulf in class between the sides. Mallorca are there for the taking in my opinion, and Atletico should be a little shorter.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atletico Madrid to beat Mallorca at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MllAtl
