SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews UNION BERLIN v BOCHUM and ROMA v JUVENTUS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V BOCHUM
2.30pm We have an intriguing Sunday from Europe with two fascinating games on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from the Bundesliga and Serie A. There’s no doubt that Roma v Juventus is the highlight of the day later from Serie A, but we start the day in the Bundesliga with a massive relegation battle as Union Berlin host Bochum. It’s going to be a huge Sunday in the Bundesliga relegation battle with Mainz in action too; as things stand Union Berlin and Bochum both have 30 points with Mainz two points behind them in the relegation playoff spot. It looks like Darmstadt and Koln are certain to go down now. It looked like the bottom three was nailed on for a while in the Bundesliga to be fair but Mainz have come with a wet sail to finish the season and make things interesting – they are unbeaten in their last six, including a win over Bochum. That run from Mainz has put these two clubs under immense pressure – especially Union Berlin who finished in the top four last season. Imagine playing Champions League football and ending up in the bottom three in the same season? Union Berlin come into this game as the favourites at 2.04 with Bochum 4.2 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing.
Both sides will say that they are reasonably unlucky to be in this situation; however only Bochum have a strong argument in my opinion. They have an average xG created of 1.52 which is the sixth best attacking figure in the Bundesliga – why they are in the relegation battle is they aren’t taking those chances, and they are conceding a lot more goals than they should. Their average xG conceded is 1.53 but they are conceding two goals a game on average. Union Berlin have struggled to convert their chances too, but at a much lower level. Their average xG created is only 1.15 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga but they are actually scoring less than a goal a game. They have a very similar figure to Bochum at the back too, and again are conceding more than they should. I have to say when I look at this game the 2.04 feels very short on Union Berlin, however Bochum have been terrible away from home this season. They have the worst away record of any side with only seven points this season. I feel the sides will cancel each other out here, and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.55 in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniBoc
ROMA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm Next we move over to Serie A to finish the weekend in style as Roma host Juventus. Unfortunately for both clubs, this hasn’t been the season finish they have hoped for – the wheels have definitely fallen off over the past few weeks. Juventus were close enough to Inter Milan in the title race before they went on a terrible run of only two wins from their last 13 games. Roma had to go through the Jose Mourinho sacking but they seemed to find a lot of momentum after that – they opened up more and started creating more chances. They had a shot at a top four finish but were put in their place by Bologna, and then suffered a 2-0 loss here on Thursday night against Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League Semi-Final. Given how good Leverkusen have been, that’s the tie over – Roma aren’t going to turn that around in Germany. We have an exceptionally open betting heat – Juventus are the favourites at 2.8 with Roma 2.96 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. It isn’t a surprise to see a very open market here, perhaps the surprise is to see Juventus as favourites given their current run and away form.
I know Roma will definitely have an eye on the Europa League Semi-Final, even at two goals down heading into the second leg away from home. As I said above, backing Juventus has proven very costly this year – two wins in 13 games is hardly a stat that would make you want to lump on away from home. Their under-lining numbers don’t inspire confidence either, they are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating away from home this season. Roma are a top four club on the home form table, and while Juventus have done exceptionally well to grind out as many results as they have away from home, I still can’t have them as favourites here. Obviously we’re going to have a very close game here, and the draw is a tempting bet at 3.2, however with the amount of goals Juventus have been conceding lately I prefer the Juventus lay at 2.8. I really see a very close game between the sides here, but from a betting point of view I would have Roma as the marginal favourites so the value play in my opinion is the Juventus lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Roma at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomJve
